Key takeaways
View moreExxon Mobil's current valuation appears fair considering its mixed financial metrics, strong market position, and growth prospects balanced against industry risks. While some metrics suggest undervaluation (e.g., EV/Sales) and others overvaluation (e.g., EV/EBITDA), the company's strategic initiatives, successful Pioneer acquisition integration, and management's long-term focus provide a balanced outlook. The potential for increased earnings and cash flow by 2030, if realized, would justify the current valuation.
- Exxon Mobil's profitability metrics (ROA, ROIC) are above the industry average, indicating efficient profit generation, but its net profit margin is below the industry average, suggesting potential cost management issues.
- The company's liquidity position is tightening, with a decreasing current ratio (1.24 in Q1 2025) and a quick ratio below 1 (0.90 in Q1 2025), raising concerns about its ability to meet short-term obligations.
- The debt/EBITDA ratio is 0.59 in Q1 2025, below the industry average, indicating a strong ability to cover debt with earnings, and the total debt to total equity ratio is 14.29%, reflecting a conservative capital structure.
- The Pioneer acquisition is exceeding expectations in terms of synergies, presenting a significant growth opportunity for the company.
- Exxon Mobil faces regulatory and legal risks, including climate change-related lawsuits, which could impact its financial performance.
- Management anticipates delivering $20 billion more in earnings and $30 billion more in cash by 2030, assuming constant prices and margins, indicating a positive future outlook.
- Recent market uncertainty due to tariffs and potential increases in OPEC supply are causing downward pressure on prices and margins, posing a challenge to the company's financial performance.
- Over the past three years, XOM has significantly outperformed both CVX and BP, with a return of 32.17% compared to CVX's -7.54% and BP's 13.04%.
Evaluation summary
Add to research
-
Company Overview:
- Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) is a global energy company involved in the exploration, development, and distribution of oil, gas, and petroleum products. The company operates through four segments: Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products.
- The Upstream segment focuses on crude oil and natural gas exploration. The Energy Products segment includes fuels, aromatics, and catalyst and licensing. The Chemical Products segment offers petrochemicals, while the Specialty Products segment provides finished lubricants, basestocks and waxes, synthetics, and elastomers and resins.
- For comparative analysis, the company's performance is benchmarked against the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) and industry peers Chevron Corp. (CVX) and BP Plc (BP).
-
Financial Performance:
- Exxon Mobil's revenue has shown a slight decrease in the most recent quarter, with sales/revenue decreasing from $90.09 billion in Q2 2024 to $81.04 billion in Q1 2025.
- Net income has also decreased from $9.57 billion in Q2 2024 to $7.71 billion in Q1 2025.
- The gross profit margin was 22.71% in Q1 2025, compared to the industry average of 32.24%. The net profit margin was 9.52% in Q1 2025, below the industry average of 10.50%.
- Return on Average Assets (ROA) was 8.00% in Q1 2025, above the industry average of 6.09%. Return on Average Total Equity (ROE) was 14.18%, below the industry average of 16.63%. Return on Average Total Capital was 14.05%, above the industry average of 13.14%.
- The SEC filings indicate that first quarter 2025 earnings were $7.7 billion, down from $8.2 billion in the prior year period. The Upstream segment benefited from higher volumes in Permian and Guyana, but was impacted by lower prices. The Energy Products segment saw a significant decline in refining margins, while Chemical Products margins remained weak.
-
Operational Efficiency:
- Total current assets decreased from $96.24 billion in Q2 2024 to $91.23 billion in Q1 2025. Total current liabilities increased slightly from $70.76 billion in Q2 2024 to $73.83 billion in Q1 2025.
- Working capital decreased from $25.48 billion in Q2 2024 to $17.40 billion in Q1 2025.
- Net operating cash flow increased from $10.56 billion in Q2 2024 to $12.95 billion in Q1 2025. Net investing cash flow decreased from -$4.86 billion in Q2 2024 to -$4.15 billion in Q1 2025. Net financing cash flow decreased from -$12.57 billion in Q2 2024 to -$13.57 billion in Q1 2025.
- Free cash flow to equity was $7.06 billion in Q1 2025, compared to $4.33 billion in Q2 2024.
- Total capital expenditure was $5.90 billion in Q1 2025, compared to $6.24 billion in Q2 2024. Depreciation, depletion, and amortization was $5.70 billion in Q1 2025, compared to $5.79 billion in Q2 2024.
- Cash dividends paid were $4.34 billion in Q1 2025, and $4.80 billion was used for change in capital stock.
- The current ratio was 1.24 in Q1 2025, compared to 1.36 in Q2 2024. The quick ratio was 0.90 in Q1 2025, compared to 1.01 in Q2 2024.
- The total debt to total equity ratio was 14.29% in Q1 2025, compared to 16.09% in Q2 2024. The debt/EBITDA ratio was 0.59 in Q1 2025, compared to 0.67 in Q2 2024.
-
Growth Opportunities:
- The company is progressing several major projects, including the Strathcona renewable diesel facility, Fawley hydrofiner, and China petrochemical complex, as noted in the SEC filings.
- The earnings call highlighted that the Pioneer acquisition is exceeding expectations in terms of synergies.
- Management anticipates delivering $20 billion more in earnings and $30 billion more in cash by 2030, assuming constant prices and margins.
- The company is investing in advantaged projects, such as the China chemical plant, advanced recycling units, and deep-water projects in Guyana and Brazil. ExxonMobil is also expanding its technology-enabled businesses, including Proxxima, with increased production capacity and collaborations.
-
Recent Developments and Market Sentiment:
- The SEC filings indicate that Exxon Mobil completed the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources Company in May 2024, significantly expanding Exxon's Permian Basin footprint.
- The earnings call acknowledged uncertainty in the market due to tariffs and potential increases in OPEC supply, causing downward pressure on prices and margins.
- Management emphasized the company's resilience and ability to navigate market volatility. They highlighted the importance of long-term investments and shareholder value creation.
- The company has ramped up engagements with investors, and for the first time since 1958, there are zero shareholder proposals in the proxy.
-
Risks and Threats:
- The SEC filings highlight volatility in commodity prices, refining margins, and chemical margins that can significantly impact financial results.
- Operational risks such as equipment failures, production outages, and environmental incidents are also noted.
- Regulatory and legal risks, including changes in government policies, taxes, and environmental regulations, pose ongoing threats.
- The company is facing numerous lawsuits from state/local governments alleging injuries related to climate change, which the company believes are meritless.
-
Valuation Analysis:
- The Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio was 8.57 in Q1 2025, compared to the industry average of 6.22. The Enterprise Value to Sales ratio was 1.61, compared to the industry average of 2.98.
- Potential catalysts include the successful integration of the Pioneer acquisition and the startup of new advantaged projects.
-
Price Performance:
- The stock price has fluctuated between $118.93 on March 31, 2025, and $103.27 on May 5, 2025.
- Over the past three years, XOM has significantly outperformed both CVX and BP, with a return of 32.17% compared to CVX's -7.54% and BP's 13.04%. However, in the last six months, XOM has underperformed BP, with a return of -8.39% compared to BP's 6.7%. Year-to-date, XOM has outperformed both CVX and BP, with a return of 2.92% compared to CVX's -1.9% and BP's 1.74%.
-
Future Outlook:
- Management anticipates delivering $20 billion more in earnings and $30 billion more in cash by 2030, assuming constant prices and margins.
- Capital expenditure is projected to grow to between $28 billion and $33 billion per year through 2030, while the reinvestment rate declines from 50% to 40% of cash flow.
- The company is prepared to adjust investments based on market conditions to improve NPV.
-
Summary:
- Exxon Mobil Corp. is a global energy company with a diversified business model. The company's financial performance has been mixed, with strong profitability metrics but a tightening liquidity position.
- Strengths: Strong profitability metrics (ROA, ROIC), conservative capital structure, and successful integration of the Pioneer acquisition.
- Weaknesses: Decreasing revenue and net income, tightening liquidity position, and below-industry-average net profit margin.
- Opportunities: Growth in advantaged projects, cost management initiatives, and expansion of technology-enabled businesses.
- Threats: Volatility in commodity prices, regulatory and legal risks, and increasing competition.
- The company's financial health is stable, but its liquidity position requires close monitoring. Critical factors for future performance include successful integration of the Pioneer acquisition, cost management, and strategic investments in advantaged projects.
- Overall, Exxon Mobil presents a mixed investment profile. The company's strong profitability and conservative capital structure are positive factors, but its tightening liquidity position and exposure to commodity price volatility are potential concerns. The company's growth potential is dependent on the successful execution of its strategic initiatives and its ability to navigate regulatory and legal challenges.
Price history
Add to research
Fundamentals
Add to research
Insights
- Exxon Mobil's profitability metrics are generally strong, but its liquidity position is tightening, requiring close monitoring.
- The company's conservative capital structure provides financial stability, but its revenue growth rate is decelerating.
- Efficient asset utilization and cash generation are crucial for sustaining long-term growth and shareholder returns.
- The Pioneer acquisition and other strategic initiatives should be closely monitored for their impact on financial performance.
- The company faces ongoing operational, financial, and legal/regulatory risks that require careful management.
Analysis
- Revenue
- Revenue has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in the most recent quarter.
- The company's revenue growth rate is decelerating compared to its historical performance.
- The Enterprise Value to Sales ratio is below the industry average, suggesting the company may be undervalued relative to its revenue.
- Profitability
- Profitability metrics such as Return on Average Assets, Return on Average Total Capital, and Return on Average Invested Capital are above the industry average, indicating efficient profit generation.
- However, Return on Average Total Equity and Net Profit Margin are below the industry average, suggesting lower returns to equity holders and potential cost management issues.
- Gross Profit Margin is also below the industry average, indicating potential cost of goods sold issues.
- Liquidity
- The current ratio is slightly below the industry average and has been decreasing, indicating a tightening liquidity position.
- The quick ratio is below 1 and below the industry average, raising concerns about the company's ability to meet short-term obligations.
- Decreasing cash and short-term investments further support the tightening liquidity position.
- Solvency
- The company maintains a conservative capital structure with a low debt-to-equity ratio compared to the industry average.
- The debt/EBITDA ratio is below the industry average, indicating a strong ability to cover debt with earnings.
- Decreasing long-term debt improves long-term solvency.
- Operational Efficiency
- Increasing accounts receivable may indicate challenges in collecting payments efficiently.
- The company's asset turnover rate needs to be monitored to ensure efficient asset utilization.
- The company's ability to manage operating expenses relative to revenue growth is crucial for profitability.
- Cash Flow Analysis - Net operating cash flow decreased from the previous quarter, primarily due to changes in working capital. - Increased sales of fixed assets and businesses boosted net investing cash flow. - A significant decrease in debt issuance/reduction led to a substantial decrease in net financing cash flow. - The free cash flow margin is positive but relatively low, indicating room for improvement in cash generation efficiency.
- Risk Factors
- Decreasing cash balance and tightening liquidity position.
- Increasing accounts receivable may indicate challenges in collecting payments efficiently.
- Fluctuations in working capital can cause temporary discrepancies between net income and operating cash flow.
- Volatility in commodity prices, refining margins, and chemical margins can significantly impact financial results.
- Regulatory and legal risks, including climate change-related lawsuits, also pose ongoing threats.
- Future Outlook
- Monitor cash levels and the current ratio to ensure adequate liquidity.
- Track accounts receivable and inventory turnover to assess asset utilization efficiency.
- Observe the impact of the Pioneer acquisition on long-term asset growth and overall financial performance.
- Focus on improving cash generation efficiency and managing working capital effectively.
- Continue to manage debt levels and maintain a conservative capital structure.
- Profitability
Financial statements
Add to research
Loading...
Public filings
Add to research
- Exxon Mobil is a leading global energy company with a diversified business model spanning upstream, refining, chemicals, and specialty products. Its integrated operations and large asset base provide scale and competitive advantages.
- The company is navigating a challenging industry environment, with volatility in commodity prices, refining margins, and chemical margins impacting financial performance. Regulatory and legal risks, including climate change-related lawsuits, also pose ongoing threats.
- Exxon is investing in advantaged growth projects, such as in the Permian Basin and Guyana, to drive volume growth and improve profitability. It is also pursuing lower-emission initiatives, including renewable fuels and carbon capture, to position the business for the energy transition.
- Strong liquidity and a disciplined capital allocation approach allow Exxon to weather market cycles and invest in high-return opportunities. However, the company faces ongoing operational, financial, and legal/regulatory risks that require careful management.
Core Business and Operations:
- Exxon Mobil Corporation is a global energy company engaged in exploration, production, refining, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products
- Key business segments include Upstream (exploration and production), Energy Products (fuels, aromatics, and catalysts), Chemical Products (olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates), and Specialty Products (lubricants, basestocks, and specialty chemicals)
- The company operates in over 200 countries and territories, with a diverse global customer base including industrial, commercial, and retail consumers
- Major competitors include other large integrated oil and gas companies, national oil companies, and independent exploration and production firms
Industry and Market Trends:
- The energy and petrochemical industries are highly competitive, with prices and margins driven by global supply and demand dynamics, as well as government policies and regulations
- Demand for oil, gas, and petrochemicals is closely linked to economic conditions and levels of prosperity globally
- The industry faces increasing pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to lower-carbon energy sources, with evolving government policies and regulations in this area
- Technological advancements are enabling new exploration and production methods, as well as the development of alternative energy solutions
Recent Events:
- Completed the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources Company in May 2024, significantly expanding Exxon's Permian Basin footprint
- Progressed several major projects, including the Strathcona renewable diesel facility, Fawley hydrofiner, and China petrochemical complex
- Divested select assets in Argentina, France, Italy, Nigeria, and the United States
Risk Factors:
- Volatility in commodity prices, refining margins, and chemical margins that can significantly impact financial results
- Operational risks such as equipment failures, production outages, and environmental incidents
- Regulatory and legal risks, including changes in government policies, taxes, and environmental regulations
- Cybersecurity threats that could disrupt operations or compromise sensitive data
- Geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and disruptions to global supply chains
Legal Matters:
- Facing numerous lawsuits from state/local governments alleging injuries related to climate change, which the company believes are meritless
- Resolved certain environmental violations through consent decrees, including payments of penalties
Management's Discussion and Analysis:
- Reported first quarter 2025 earnings of $7.7 billion, down from $8.2 billion in the prior year period
- Upstream segment benefited from higher volumes in Permian and Guyana, but was impacted by lower prices
- Energy Products segment saw a significant decline in refining margins, while Chemical Products margins remained weak
- Maintained strong liquidity, with $17.0 billion in cash and $1.2 billion in undrawn credit facilities at the end of Q1 2025
- Continued disciplined capital allocation, investing $5.9 billion in Q1 2025 and planning $27-29 billion for the full year
Earnings calls
Add to research
Earnings Report 2025Q1 (2025-05-02)
Key takeaways
- Resilience in Volatile Markets: ExxonMobil's emphasis on cost management and strategic investments positions it well to navigate market volatility and potential economic slowdowns.
- Pioneer Acquisition Exceeding Expectations: The integration of Pioneer is generating greater synergies than initially anticipated, enhancing the company's value proposition.
- Long-Term Value Creation: Management's focus on long-term investments and shareholder returns, rather than short-term gains, signals a commitment to sustainable value creation.
- Low Carbon Strategy Dependent on Policy: The progress of ExxonMobil's low carbon initiatives is contingent on supportive government policies and market mechanisms.
- Cost Savings a Key Differentiator: The company's industry-leading cost savings program provides a competitive advantage and supports profitability in challenging market conditions.
Focus of management’s prepared remarks
- Market and Policy Environment: Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the market due to tariffs and potential increases in OPEC supply, causing downward pressure on prices and margins.
- Strategic Readiness: The company's strategy has led to an advantaged portfolio with a low cost of supply, a strong balance sheet, and a lean cost base.
- Cost Reduction: ExxonMobil has taken $12.7 billion of structural costs out of the business since 2019, with no other IOC coming close.
- Long-Term Fundamentals: The world will continue to need reliable and affordable energy, and ExxonMobil will invest in advantaged projects to meet these needs.
- Earnings and Cash Flow Growth: The company is confident in delivering $20 billion more in earnings and $30 billion more in cash by 2030, assuming constant prices and margins.
- Asset Divestments: The company has completed $5 billion of incremental divestments and will continue to actively manage its portfolio. Since 2019, $24 billion of non-core assets have been sold.
- Break-Even Reduction: Plans are in place to improve break-even prices to $35 per barrel by 2027 and $30 per barrel by 2030.
- Advantaged Projects: The 10 advantaged projects starting up this year are expected to generate more than $3 billion of earnings in 2026.
- Capital Allocation: The company's capital allocation priorities remain unchanged: invest in profitable growth, maintain financial strength, and share success with shareholders.
- Shareholder Returns: The company distributed $9.1 billion of cash in the quarter, including $4.8 billion of share buybacks.
- Shareholder Engagement: The company has ramped up engagements with investors, and for the first time since 1958, there are zero shareholder proposals in the proxy.
Focus of the analyst Q&A
- Portfolio Flexibility:
- Under what market conditions would the company exercise flexibility in its portfolio plans?
- How would the company balance this decision versus the operational momentum across the businesses?
- Chemicals Business:
- How are recent market developments like slowing global growth and U.S.-China tariffs impacting performance at the China facility and the chemicals business more broadly?
- Share Buybacks:
- Given the volatility in the market, would the company continue its $20 billion buyback pace regardless of commodity prices?
- Would the company lean on its balance sheet to ensure that the Pioneer shares are bought back?
- M&A Strategy:
- How does M&A fit into the framework of taking advantage of opportunities in a low-cost environment?
- Are there any gaps in the portfolio, and how is the company thinking about continuing to consolidate?
- Low Carbon Investments:
- Update on the company's current thoughts on the Baytown project.
- Is the company likely to move ahead based on what it sees today, and if not, what else needs to happen to get to FID?
- Pioneer Synergies:
- Update on how the company is tracking in the various buckets of synergies from the Pioneer acquisition.
- Commentary on how efforts to improve recoveries on the production side are tracking.
- CapEx Plans:
- Given the amount of uncertainty, is it fair to assume that policy-dependent CapEx gets pushed to the right?
- Specific question on Mozambique: confirmation on selling out of the floating development in exchange for a higher interest in the onshore development.
- New Coke Province:
- With four more months of well data, is the new Coke province still performing to the expectation of raising AURs by 15%, or even exceeding that expectation?
- Litigation Against the European Union:
- Where does this process currently sit, and what is the timeline on resolution?
- Cost Savings:
- Updates on the incremental $6 billion in cost savings.
- Is that logistics and procurement focused, or has that grown or expanded in terms of the type of things the company is looking to cut costs on?
- Tariffs and Project Organization:
- How should we think about moving modules and equipment into maybe U.S. projects?
- What do tariffs do to that, and what does the project organization do to make sure the company hits its CapEx numbers and delivers on time?
- Dry Gas Production:
- Given the improving demand outlook, does the company see any potential shift in its strategy away from dry gas production?
- Refining Performance:
- Commentary on any particular drivers of the strong refining performance in the first quarter.
- How does the company see the market evolving from here over the course of the year as it thinks about supply/demand margins, etcetera?
Summary
-
Financial Performance
ExxonMobil reported strong first-quarter 2025 earnings of $7.7 billion, up 4% sequentially excluding identified items. Cash flow from operations reached $13 billion, leading all IOCs. The company distributed $9.1 billion of cash to shareholders, including $4.8 billion in share buybacks. The company has repurchased roughly a third of the shares issued to complete the Pioneer acquisition. The company's three-year total shareholder return (TSR) was 60%, with a compound annual growth rate of 17%, outperforming other IOCs and large-cap industrial companies.
-
Revenue Drivers
Revenue growth was driven by strategic investments and project execution, including the startup of a world-scale chemical plant in China. The company is focused on growing volumes of its most profitable barrels in the upstream segment and shifting to a more profitable mix of products in product solutions. Low carbon solutions are expected to generate $1 billion of earnings by 2030.
-
Profit Margins and Cost Management
ExxonMobil has taken $12.7 billion of structural costs out of the business since 2019. The company aims to lower break-even prices to $35 per barrel by 2027 and $30 per barrel by 2030. This is being achieved by growing earnings power and cash flow, rather than cutting capital investments. The company is on track for more than 60% of its production to come from advantaged assets by 2030, with an increase in per-barrel profit from $10 to $13.
-
Guidance and Outlook
ExxonMobil anticipates delivering $20 billion more in earnings and $30 billion more in cash by 2030, assuming constant prices and margins. Capital expenditure is projected to grow to between $28 billion and $33 billion per year through 2030, while the reinvestment rate declines from 50% to 40% of cash flow. The company is prepared to adjust investments based on market conditions to improve NPV.
-
Strategic Initiatives
Key strategic initiatives include high-grading the portfolio through divestments, with $24 billion of non-core assets sold since 2019. The company is investing in advantaged projects, such as the China chemical plant, advanced recycling units, and deep-water projects in Guyana and Brazil. ExxonMobil is also expanding its technology-enabled businesses, including Proxxima, with increased production capacity and collaborations. The Pioneer acquisition is exceeding expectations in terms of synergies.
-
Management Commentary
Management emphasized the company's resilience and ability to navigate market volatility. They highlighted the importance of long-term investments and shareholder value creation. The CEO stated, "We play the long game," and emphasized the company's commitment to growing shareholder returns and distributions. They also noted the company's willingness to challenge actions that undermine its value.
-
Industry and Market Conditions
Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the market due to tariffs and potential increases in OPEC supply, which are causing downward pressure on prices and margins. They noted that the industry has been in a long position from a supply standpoint for quite some time, leading to challenging margins in the chemicals business. The company is focused on controlling what it can, including cost management and high-value product development.
Comparative analysis
Add to research
Benchmarks (as of 2025-05-13)
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE)
- Performance Comparison:
- Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) has shown mixed performance compared to the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE). Over the past three years, XOM has significantly outperformed XLE, with returns of 32.17% versus 15.33%. However, over shorter periods such as the last one and two years, XOM has underperformed XLE. More recently, YTD, XOM has outperformed XLE, with returns of 2.92% compared to -0.25%.
- Risk and Return Analysis:
- The annualized returns show that XOM has provided higher returns over the three-year period (9.74%) compared to XLE (4.87%). However, over the past two years, XOM's annualized return was 5.16%, lower than XLE's 7.75%. The annualized volatility data indicates that XOM has generally been less volatile than XLE. The maximum drawdown for XOM was -20.51% on 2022-07-14, while for XLE it was -26.04% on the same date, suggesting that XOM has a less risky profile in terms of peak-to-trough declines.
- Risk-Adjusted Performance:
- The Sharpe Ratio analysis suggests that XOM has generally offered better risk-adjusted returns compared to XLE, although both have experienced fluctuations. The beta values for both XOM and XLE have been below 1, indicating lower volatility than the market. XOM's beta has generally been lower than XLE's, indicating it is less sensitive to market movements.
- Overall Assessment:
- Based on the analysis, Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) has demonstrated a mixed performance relative to the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE). While XOM has shown strong outperformance over a three-year period, it has underperformed over shorter time frames. XOM generally exhibits lower volatility and smaller drawdowns than XLE, suggesting a less risky profile. The Sharpe Ratio indicates that XOM has provided better risk-adjusted returns. The trends, patterns, and anomalies suggest that XOM may be a suitable investment for those seeking lower volatility and better risk-adjusted returns, but investors should carefully consider the time horizon and recent underperformance in shorter periods.
Peers Price History(as of 2025-05-13)
- Performance Comparison:
- Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) has shown mixed performance compared to Chevron Corp. (CVX) and BP Plc (BP). Over the past three years, XOM has significantly outperformed both CVX and BP, with a return of 32.17% compared to CVX's -7.54% and BP's 13.04%. However, in the last six months, XOM has underperformed BP, with a return of -8.39% compared to BP's 6.7%. Year-to-date, XOM has outperformed both CVX and BP, with a return of 2.92% compared to CVX's -1.9% and BP's 1.74%.
- Risk and Return Analysis:
- Exxon Mobil (XOM) has provided higher annualized returns compared to Chevron (CVX) and BP over the 2-year and 3-year periods. For example, the 3-year annualized return for XOM is 9.74%, while it is -2.58% for CVX and 4.17% for BP.
- The annualized volatility for XOM, CVX, and BP has fluctuated over time. In recent periods, the volatility has been increasing for all three companies. As of May 13, 2025, the annualized volatility for XOM is 40.93%, for CVX is 47.34%, and for BP is 46.77%.
- Exxon Mobil's (XOM) maximum drawdown was -18.92% on 2025-04-10, which is less severe than Chevron's (CVX) maximum drawdown of -24.95% on 2022-07-14 and BP's maximum drawdown of -33% on 2025-04-09. This indicates that XOM may have a lower risk profile compared to CVX and BP.
- Risk-Adjusted Performance:
- The Sharpe Ratio for Exxon Mobil (XOM) has generally been higher than that of BP, but similar to Chevron (CVX). However, in recent periods, the Sharpe Ratios for all three companies have decreased, with XOM's Sharpe Ratio falling to -0.05 as of May 13, 2025.
- The Beta value for Exxon Mobil (XOM) is generally below 1, indicating that the stock is less sensitive to market movements compared to the overall market. As of May 13, 2025, XOM's Beta is 0.51, which is similar to BP's Beta of 0.11 but lower than Chevron's Beta of 0.67.
- Overall Assessment:
- Exxon Mobil (XOM) has shown strong historical performance compared to Chevron (CVX) and BP (BP), particularly over the past three years. However, recent trends indicate increasing volatility and decreasing risk-adjusted returns for all three companies. XOM's lower maximum drawdown and Beta value suggest a relatively lower risk profile compared to CVX and BP.
- Investors should closely monitor the trends in volatility and risk-adjusted returns for XOM, CVX, and BP, and consider the potential impact of market conditions and company-specific factors on their performance.
Peers Fundamentals(as of 2025-03-31)
-
Market Position and Size:
- Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) stands out with a significantly larger market capitalization of $471,733.19 million compared to Chevron Corp. (CVX) at $248,598.62 million and BP Plc (BP) at $60,006.32 million.
- This substantial market cap is supported by XOM's higher revenue ($339,744 million), EBITDA ($63,737 million), and Net Income ($33,173 million) compared to its peers.
- XOM's superior size, revenue generation, and profitability solidify its dominant market position within the peer group.
-
Profitability and Efficiency:
- XOM's Gross Profit Margin of 22.2% is higher than CVX (14.11%) and BP (15.0%) but falls short of the industry average of 32.24%.
- The company's EBITDA Margin of 18.76% is slightly higher than CVX (18.14%) and significantly higher than BP (15.66%), but remains below the industry average of 47.75%.
- XOM's Net Profit Margin of 9.76% surpasses CVX (8.11%) and BP (-0.63%) but is slightly lower than the industry average of 10.5%.
- Despite its size and revenue, XOM demonstrates strong profitability, outperforming its peers in net profit margin but underperforming the industry average in gross profit and EBITDA margins.
-
Financial Health and Stability:
- XOM's Current Ratio of 1.24 is higher than CVX (1.08) and slightly higher than BP (1.22), but lower than the industry average of 1.3.
- The company's Quick Ratio of 0.9 is higher than CVX (0.82) but lower than BP (0.92) and the industry average of 1.22.
- XOM's Total Debt to Total Equity Ratio of 14.29 is lower than CVX (19.89) and significantly lower than BP (122.19) and the industry average of 81.79.
- XOM's Debt / EBITDA of 0.59 is lower than CVX (0.85) and BP (2.4) and also lower than the industry average of 1.51.
- These figures indicate that XOM maintains strong liquidity and a conservative debt position relative to its market cap and peer group, reflecting financial stability.
-
Valuation and Market Perception:
- XOM's Enterprise Value To Sales of 1.61 is slightly lower than CVX (1.65) and lower than the industry average of 2.98 but higher than BP (0.78).
- The company's Enterprise Value To EBITDA of 8.57 is slightly lower than CVX (9.1) but higher than BP (4.97) and the industry average of 6.22.
- XOM's Price To Earnings of 14.48 is lower than CVX (16.32) and the industry average of 23.85.
- XOM's Price to Book Ratio of 1.8 is higher than CVX (1.67) and BP (1.34) and slightly higher than the industry average of 1.71.
- XOM's Price To Sales Ratio of 1.41 is higher than CVX (1.29) and BP (0.42) but lower than the industry average of 2.13.
- Overall, XOM's valuation metrics suggest it is reasonably valued compared to its peers and industry standards, with a lower Price to Earnings ratio but a higher Price to Book ratio.
-
Cash Flow and Capital Management:
- XOM's Net Operating Cash Flow is $53,311 million, surpassing CVX ($29,853 million) and BP ($19,662.2 million).
- The company's Total Capital Expenditure is $25,130 million, higher than CVX ($15,850 million) and BP ($11,699.9 million).
- XOM's Free Cash Flow is $28,181 million, exceeding CVX ($14,003 million) and BP ($7,962.33 million).
- These figures demonstrate XOM's strong cash flow generation relative to its size, peers, and industry norms, reflecting efficient operations and capital management.
-
Growth and Future Prospect:
- XOM exhibits consistently lower growth in Sales/Revenue, EBITDA, Free Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow Margin, and EBIT Margin compared to the peer group average.
- However, XOM shows consistently higher growth in Net Income and Basic Earnings per Share compared to its peers.
- The company's year-over-year growth rates fluctuate significantly, and its 3-year and 5-year CAGR figures reveal a decreasing trend in growth rates.
- XOM's competitive position may be at risk due to its lower growth rates in key metrics compared to its peers.
-
Potential for Investment:
- XOM presents a compelling investment opportunity due to its dominant market position, strong financial health, and efficient operations.
- While its growth prospects may be a concern, its robust profitability, conservative financial management, and reasonable valuation make it an attractive investment option compared to its peers and the broader industry.
-
Key Risks and Considerations:
- XOM's lower growth rates in key metrics such as Sales/Revenue, EBITDA, and Free Cash Flow compared to its peers pose a risk to its future competitive position.
- The company's Gross Profit Margin and EBITDA Margin are lower than the industry average, indicating potential inefficiencies in its cost structure.
- XOM's Cash Flow / Total Debt is significantly lower than the industry average, suggesting a need to improve its cash flow generation relative to its debt obligations.
-
Overall Assessment:
- XOM demonstrates strong financial health, characterized by its dominant market position, robust profitability, efficient operations, and conservative financial management.
- While there are areas for improvement, such as increasing gross profit and EBITDA margins and improving cash flow generation relative to debt, XOM's overall financial performance is solid and sustainable.
- XOM holds a leading competitive position within its peer group and the broader industry, driven by its superior size, revenue generation, profitability, and efficient operations.
- Despite facing challenges in maintaining growth rates and improving certain profitability metrics, XOM's strong financial health and market dominance position it well for long-term success.
Comparison metrics
Add to research