Key takeaways
View moreWhile ExxonMobil's EV/EBITDA ratio suggests overvaluation, this is balanced by its lower EV/Sales ratio and superior ROA compared to industry averages. The company's strong market position, successful Pioneer acquisition integration, and promising growth prospects justify its current valuation, while identified risks appear adequately priced in.
- Exxon Mobil's revenue has seen a slight decline recently, with sales/revenue dropping from $90.09 billion in Q2 2024 to $81.04 billion in Q1 2025.
- The company's liquidity is tightening, as indicated by a decrease in working capital from $25.48 billion in Q2 2024 to $17.40 billion in Q1 2025.
- Exxon Mobil's Return on Average Total Equity (ROE) was 14.18% in Q1 2025, below the industry average of 16.63%.
- The acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources is expected to expand Exxon's Permian Basin footprint and generate greater synergies than initially anticipated, according to the earnings call.
- Management anticipates delivering $20 billion more in earnings and $30 billion more in cash by 2030, assuming constant prices and margins, as stated in the earnings call.
- The company faces ongoing regulatory and legal risks, including numerous lawsuits from state/local governments alleging injuries related to climate change, as noted in the SEC filings.
- Exxon Mobil's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio was 8.57 in Q1 2025, compared to an industry average of 6.22, suggesting it may be overvalued relative to its earnings.
- XOM has generally outperformed Chevron Corp. (CVX) over the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year periods, but has underperformed BP Plc (BP) year-to-date and over the 1-month and 6-month periods.
- The company's capital expenditure is projected to grow to between $28 billion and $33 billion per year through 2030, while the reinvestment rate declines from 50% to 40% of cash flow, as noted in the earnings call.
- The earnings call on May 2, 2025, highlighted ExxonMobil's resilience in volatile markets, with management emphasizing cost management and strategic investments.
Evaluation summary
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Company Overview:
- Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) is a global energy company involved in the exploration, production, refining, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products. Its operations are divided into four key segments: Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products. The Upstream segment focuses on crude oil and natural gas exploration. The Energy Products segment includes fuels, aromatics, and catalyst and licensing. The Chemical Products segment offers petrochemicals, while the Specialty Products segment provides finished lubricants, basestocks and waxes, synthetics, and elastomers and resins.
- The company's peers include Chevron Corp. (CVX) and BP Plc (BP), and it is benchmarked against the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE).
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Financial Performance:
- Exxon Mobil's revenue has shown a slight decrease in the most recent quarter, with sales/revenue dropping from $90.09 billion in Q2 2024 to $81.04 billion in Q1 2025. Net income also decreased from $9.57 billion in Q2 2024 to $7.71 billion in Q1 2025.
- Gross profit margin was 22.71% in Q1 2025, compared to an industry average of 32.24%. Net profit margin was 9.52% in Q1 2025, below the industry average of 10.50%. EBITDA margin was 19.16% in Q1 2025, significantly lower than the industry average of 47.75%.
- Return on Average Assets (ROA) was 8.00% in Q1 2025, above the industry average of 6.09%. Return on Average Total Equity (ROE) was 14.18% in Q1 2025, below the industry average of 16.63%. Return on Average Invested Capital (ROIC) was 12.45% in Q1 2025, above the industry average of 8.66%.
- The SEC filings indicate that the Upstream segment's performance was impacted by lower prices, while the Energy Products segment saw a significant decline in refining margins, and Chemical Products margins remained weak.
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Operational Efficiency:
- Total current assets decreased from $96.24 billion in Q2 2024 to $91.23 billion in Q1 2025. Total current liabilities increased slightly from $70.76 billion in Q2 2024 to $73.83 billion in Q1 2025.
- Working capital decreased from $25.48 billion in Q2 2024 to $17.40 billion in Q1 2025.
- Net operating cash flow decreased from $17.57 billion in Q3 2024 to $12.95 billion in Q1 2025. Net investing cash flow was -$4.15 billion in Q1 2025, and net financing cash flow was -$13.57 billion in Q1 2025.
- Free cash flow to equity was $7.06 billion in Q1 2025. The free cash flow margin was 0.09 in Q1 2025.
- Total capital expenditure was $5.90 billion in Q1 2025. Depreciation, depletion, and amortization were $5.70 billion in Q1 2025.
- Cash dividends paid were $4.34 billion in Q1 2025. The change in capital stock was -$4.80 billion in Q1 2025, indicating share repurchases.
- The current ratio was 1.24 in Q1 2025, and the quick ratio was 0.90 in Q1 2025.
- The total debt to total equity ratio was 14.29% in Q1 2025. The debt/EBITDA ratio was 0.59 in Q1 2025.
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Growth Opportunities:
- The acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources Company in May 2024 significantly expanded Exxon's Permian Basin footprint, as noted in the SEC filings.
- The company is progressing several major projects, including the Strathcona renewable diesel facility, Fawley hydrofiner, and China petrochemical complex, as mentioned in the SEC filings.
- Management is focused on growing volumes of its most profitable barrels in the upstream segment and shifting to a more profitable mix of products in product solutions, as highlighted in the earnings call. Low carbon solutions are expected to generate $1 billion of earnings by 2030.
- The company is investing in advantaged projects, such as the China chemical plant, advanced recycling units, and deep-water projects in Guyana and Brazil, as noted in the earnings call. ExxonMobil is also expanding its technology-enabled businesses, including Proxxima, with increased production capacity and collaborations.
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Recent Developments and Market Sentiment:
- The earnings call on May 2, 2025, highlighted ExxonMobil's resilience in volatile markets, with management emphasizing cost management and strategic investments. The integration of Pioneer is generating greater synergies than initially anticipated.
- Management acknowledged uncertainty in the market due to tariffs and potential increases in OPEC supply, causing downward pressure on prices and margins.
- Analysts focused on portfolio flexibility, the chemicals business, share buybacks, M&A strategy, and low carbon investments.
- The company is facing numerous lawsuits from state/local governments alleging injuries related to climate change, as noted in the SEC filings.
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Risks and Threats:
- The company faces volatility in commodity prices, refining margins, and chemical margins, which can significantly impact financial results, as noted in the SEC filings.
- Operational risks such as equipment failures, production outages, and environmental incidents are ongoing threats, as mentioned in the SEC filings.
- Regulatory and legal risks, including changes in government policies, taxes, and environmental regulations, pose significant challenges, as highlighted in the SEC filings.
- Cybersecurity threats could disrupt operations or compromise sensitive data, as noted in the SEC filings.
- The company is facing numerous lawsuits from state/local governments alleging injuries related to climate change, as mentioned in the SEC filings.
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Valuation Analysis:
- The Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio was 8.57 in Q1 2025, compared to an industry average of 6.22. The Enterprise Value to Sales ratio was 1.61 in Q1 2025, below the industry average of 2.98.
- Potential catalysts include the successful integration of Pioneer, the startup of new advantaged projects, and improvements in refining and chemical margins.
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Price Performance:
- The stock price has fluctuated between $102 and $110 from April 2025 to June 2025.
- Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) has generally outperformed the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) over the past year, with YTD, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Months, 6 Months, and 1 Year returns all showing overperformance. However, over the 2-year period, XOM underperformed XLE, while over the 3-year period, XOM significantly outperformed XLE.
- XOM has generally outperformed Chevron Corp. (CVX) over the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year periods, as well as year-to-date and 3-month periods. However, XOM has underperformed BP Plc (BP) year-to-date and over the 1-month and 6-month periods.
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Future Outlook:
- Management anticipates delivering $20 billion more in earnings and $30 billion more in cash by 2030, assuming constant prices and margins, as stated in the earnings call.
- Capital expenditure is projected to grow to between $28 billion and $33 billion per year through 2030, while the reinvestment rate declines from 50% to 40% of cash flow, as noted in the earnings call.
- The company is prepared to adjust investments based on market conditions to improve NPV, as mentioned in the earnings call.
- Recent news and developments, such as the Pioneer acquisition and the progress of major projects, are expected to positively influence the company's future performance.
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Summary:
- Exxon Mobil is a leading global energy company with a diversified business model. The company's financial performance is characterized by strong profitability metrics but tightening liquidity. Operational efficiency is a concern, particularly regarding working capital management and accounts receivable.
- Growth opportunities include the Pioneer acquisition, strategic investments in advantaged projects, and expansion in low carbon solutions. However, the company faces significant risks related to commodity price volatility, regulatory challenges, and legal matters.
- The company's valuation metrics are mixed, with EV/EBITDA above the industry average but EV/Sales below. Price performance has generally been strong compared to benchmarks and peers, but recent trends indicate increased volatility.
- Management's guidance for future earnings and cash flow growth is positive, but the company's performance will depend on its ability to manage costs, execute strategic initiatives, and navigate market uncertainties.
- Areas requiring further monitoring include liquidity management, working capital efficiency, and the impact of regulatory and legal risks.
- Overall, Exxon Mobil presents a complex investment profile with strong fundamentals and growth potential, but also significant risks and challenges. The company's ability to execute its strategic initiatives and manage its operational and financial risks will be critical for its future success.
Price history
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Fundamentals
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Insights
- Exxon Mobil's profitability metrics are generally strong, but its liquidity position is tightening, requiring close monitoring.
- The company's conservative capital structure provides financial stability, but its revenue growth rate is decelerating.
- Efficient asset utilization and cash generation are crucial for sustaining long-term growth and shareholder returns.
- The Pioneer acquisition and other strategic initiatives should be closely monitored for their impact on financial performance.
- The company faces ongoing operational, financial, and legal/regulatory risks that require careful management.
Analysis
- Revenue
- Revenue has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in the most recent quarter.
- The company's revenue growth rate is decelerating compared to its historical performance.
- The Enterprise Value to Sales ratio is below the industry average, suggesting the company may be undervalued relative to its revenue.
- Profitability
- Profitability metrics such as Return on Average Assets, Return on Average Total Capital, and Return on Average Invested Capital are above the industry average, indicating efficient profit generation.
- However, Return on Average Total Equity and Net Profit Margin are below the industry average, suggesting lower returns to equity holders and potential cost management issues.
- Gross Profit Margin is also below the industry average, indicating potential cost of goods sold issues.
- Liquidity
- The current ratio is slightly below the industry average and has been decreasing, indicating a tightening liquidity position.
- The quick ratio is below 1 and below the industry average, raising concerns about the company's ability to meet short-term obligations.
- Decreasing cash and short-term investments further support the tightening liquidity position.
- Solvency
- The company maintains a conservative capital structure with a low debt-to-equity ratio compared to the industry average.
- The debt/EBITDA ratio is below the industry average, indicating a strong ability to cover debt with earnings.
- Decreasing long-term debt improves long-term solvency.
- Operational Efficiency
- Increasing accounts receivable may indicate challenges in collecting payments efficiently.
- The company's asset turnover rate needs to be monitored to ensure efficient asset utilization.
- The company's ability to manage operating expenses relative to revenue growth is crucial for profitability.
- Cash Flow Analysis - Net operating cash flow decreased from the previous quarter, primarily due to changes in working capital. - Increased sales of fixed assets and businesses boosted net investing cash flow. - A significant decrease in debt issuance/reduction led to a substantial decrease in net financing cash flow. - The free cash flow margin is positive but relatively low, indicating room for improvement in cash generation efficiency.
- Risk Factors
- Decreasing cash balance and tightening liquidity position.
- Increasing accounts receivable may indicate challenges in collecting payments efficiently.
- Fluctuations in working capital can cause temporary discrepancies between net income and operating cash flow.
- Volatility in commodity prices, refining margins, and chemical margins can significantly impact financial results.
- Regulatory and legal risks, including climate change-related lawsuits, also pose ongoing threats.
- Future Outlook
- Monitor cash levels and the current ratio to ensure adequate liquidity.
- Track accounts receivable and inventory turnover to assess asset utilization efficiency.
- Observe the impact of the Pioneer acquisition on long-term asset growth and overall financial performance.
- Focus on improving cash generation efficiency and managing working capital effectively.
- Continue to manage debt levels and maintain a conservative capital structure.
- Profitability
Financial statements
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Public filings
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- Exxon Mobil is a leading global energy company with a diversified business model spanning upstream, refining, chemicals, and specialty products. Its integrated operations and large asset base provide scale and competitive advantages.
- The company is navigating a challenging industry environment, with volatility in commodity prices, refining margins, and chemical margins impacting financial performance. Regulatory and legal risks, including climate change-related lawsuits, also pose ongoing threats.
- Exxon is investing in advantaged growth projects, such as in the Permian Basin and Guyana, to drive volume growth and improve profitability. It is also pursuing lower-emission initiatives, including renewable fuels and carbon capture, to position the business for the energy transition.
- Strong liquidity and a disciplined capital allocation approach allow Exxon to weather market cycles and invest in high-return opportunities. However, the company faces ongoing operational, financial, and legal/regulatory risks that require careful management.
Core Business and Operations:
- Exxon Mobil Corporation is a global energy company engaged in exploration, production, refining, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products
- Key business segments include Upstream (exploration and production), Energy Products (fuels, aromatics, and catalysts), Chemical Products (olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates), and Specialty Products (lubricants, basestocks, and specialty chemicals)
- The company operates in over 200 countries and territories, with a diverse global customer base including industrial, commercial, and retail consumers
- Major competitors include other large integrated oil and gas companies, national oil companies, and independent exploration and production firms
Industry and Market Trends:
- The energy and petrochemical industries are highly competitive, with prices and margins driven by global supply and demand dynamics, as well as government policies and regulations
- Demand for oil, gas, and petrochemicals is closely linked to economic conditions and levels of prosperity globally
- The industry faces increasing pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to lower-carbon energy sources, with evolving government policies and regulations in this area
- Technological advancements are enabling new exploration and production methods, as well as the development of alternative energy solutions
Recent Events:
- Completed the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources Company in May 2024, significantly expanding Exxon's Permian Basin footprint
- Progressed several major projects, including the Strathcona renewable diesel facility, Fawley hydrofiner, and China petrochemical complex
- Divested select assets in Argentina, France, Italy, Nigeria, and the United States
Risk Factors:
- Volatility in commodity prices, refining margins, and chemical margins that can significantly impact financial results
- Operational risks such as equipment failures, production outages, and environmental incidents
- Regulatory and legal risks, including changes in government policies, taxes, and environmental regulations
- Cybersecurity threats that could disrupt operations or compromise sensitive data
- Geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and disruptions to global supply chains
Legal Matters:
- Facing numerous lawsuits from state/local governments alleging injuries related to climate change, which the company believes are meritless
- Resolved certain environmental violations through consent decrees, including payments of penalties
Management's Discussion and Analysis:
- Reported first quarter 2025 earnings of $7.7 billion, down from $8.2 billion in the prior year period
- Upstream segment benefited from higher volumes in Permian and Guyana, but was impacted by lower prices
- Energy Products segment saw a significant decline in refining margins, while Chemical Products margins remained weak
- Maintained strong liquidity, with $17.0 billion in cash and $1.2 billion in undrawn credit facilities at the end of Q1 2025
- Continued disciplined capital allocation, investing $5.9 billion in Q1 2025 and planning $27-29 billion for the full year
Earnings calls
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Earnings Report 2025Q1 (2025-05-02)
Key takeaways
- Resilience in Volatile Markets: ExxonMobil's emphasis on cost management and strategic investments positions it well to navigate market volatility and potential economic slowdowns.
- Pioneer Acquisition Exceeding Expectations: The integration of Pioneer is generating greater synergies than initially anticipated, enhancing the company's value proposition.
- Long-Term Value Creation: Management's focus on long-term investments and shareholder returns, rather than short-term gains, signals a commitment to sustainable value creation.
- Low Carbon Strategy Dependent on Policy: The progress of ExxonMobil's low carbon initiatives is contingent on supportive government policies and market mechanisms.
- Cost Savings a Key Differentiator: The company's industry-leading cost savings program provides a competitive advantage and supports profitability in challenging market conditions.
Focus of management’s prepared remarks
- Market and Policy Environment: Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the market due to tariffs and potential increases in OPEC supply, causing downward pressure on prices and margins.
- Strategic Readiness: The company's strategy has led to an advantaged portfolio with a low cost of supply, a strong balance sheet, and a lean cost base.
- Cost Reduction: ExxonMobil has taken $12.7 billion of structural costs out of the business since 2019, with no other IOC coming close.
- Long-Term Fundamentals: The world will continue to need reliable and affordable energy, and ExxonMobil will invest in advantaged projects to meet these needs.
- Earnings and Cash Flow Growth: The company is confident in delivering $20 billion more in earnings and $30 billion more in cash by 2030, assuming constant prices and margins.
- Asset Divestments: The company has completed $5 billion of incremental divestments and will continue to actively manage its portfolio. Since 2019, $24 billion of non-core assets have been sold.
- Break-Even Reduction: Plans are in place to improve break-even prices to $35 per barrel by 2027 and $30 per barrel by 2030.
- Advantaged Projects: The 10 advantaged projects starting up this year are expected to generate more than $3 billion of earnings in 2026.
- Capital Allocation: The company's capital allocation priorities remain unchanged: invest in profitable growth, maintain financial strength, and share success with shareholders.
- Shareholder Returns: The company distributed $9.1 billion of cash in the quarter, including $4.8 billion of share buybacks.
- Shareholder Engagement: The company has ramped up engagements with investors, and for the first time since 1958, there are zero shareholder proposals in the proxy.
Focus of the analyst Q&A
- Portfolio Flexibility:
- Under what market conditions would the company exercise flexibility in its portfolio plans?
- How would the company balance this decision versus the operational momentum across the businesses?
- Chemicals Business:
- How are recent market developments like slowing global growth and U.S.-China tariffs impacting performance at the China facility and the chemicals business more broadly?
- Share Buybacks:
- Given the volatility in the market, would the company continue its $20 billion buyback pace regardless of commodity prices?
- Would the company lean on its balance sheet to ensure that the Pioneer shares are bought back?
- M&A Strategy:
- How does M&A fit into the framework of taking advantage of opportunities in a low-cost environment?
- Are there any gaps in the portfolio, and how is the company thinking about continuing to consolidate?
- Low Carbon Investments:
- Update on the company's current thoughts on the Baytown project.
- Is the company likely to move ahead based on what it sees today, and if not, what else needs to happen to get to FID?
- Pioneer Synergies:
- Update on how the company is tracking in the various buckets of synergies from the Pioneer acquisition.
- Commentary on how efforts to improve recoveries on the production side are tracking.
- CapEx Plans:
- Given the amount of uncertainty, is it fair to assume that policy-dependent CapEx gets pushed to the right?
- Specific question on Mozambique: confirmation on selling out of the floating development in exchange for a higher interest in the onshore development.
- New Coke Province:
- With four more months of well data, is the new Coke province still performing to the expectation of raising AURs by 15%, or even exceeding that expectation?
- Litigation Against the European Union:
- Where does this process currently sit, and what is the timeline on resolution?
- Cost Savings:
- Updates on the incremental $6 billion in cost savings.
- Is that logistics and procurement focused, or has that grown or expanded in terms of the type of things the company is looking to cut costs on?
- Tariffs and Project Organization:
- How should we think about moving modules and equipment into maybe U.S. projects?
- What do tariffs do to that, and what does the project organization do to make sure the company hits its CapEx numbers and delivers on time?
- Dry Gas Production:
- Given the improving demand outlook, does the company see any potential shift in its strategy away from dry gas production?
- Refining Performance:
- Commentary on any particular drivers of the strong refining performance in the first quarter.
- How does the company see the market evolving from here over the course of the year as it thinks about supply/demand margins, etcetera?
Summary
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Financial Performance
ExxonMobil reported strong first-quarter 2025 earnings of $7.7 billion, up 4% sequentially excluding identified items. Cash flow from operations reached $13 billion, leading all IOCs. The company distributed $9.1 billion of cash to shareholders, including $4.8 billion in share buybacks. The company has repurchased roughly a third of the shares issued to complete the Pioneer acquisition. The company's three-year total shareholder return (TSR) was 60%, with a compound annual growth rate of 17%, outperforming other IOCs and large-cap industrial companies.
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Revenue Drivers
Revenue growth was driven by strategic investments and project execution, including the startup of a world-scale chemical plant in China. The company is focused on growing volumes of its most profitable barrels in the upstream segment and shifting to a more profitable mix of products in product solutions. Low carbon solutions are expected to generate $1 billion of earnings by 2030.
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Profit Margins and Cost Management
ExxonMobil has taken $12.7 billion of structural costs out of the business since 2019. The company aims to lower break-even prices to $35 per barrel by 2027 and $30 per barrel by 2030. This is being achieved by growing earnings power and cash flow, rather than cutting capital investments. The company is on track for more than 60% of its production to come from advantaged assets by 2030, with an increase in per-barrel profit from $10 to $13.
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Guidance and Outlook
ExxonMobil anticipates delivering $20 billion more in earnings and $30 billion more in cash by 2030, assuming constant prices and margins. Capital expenditure is projected to grow to between $28 billion and $33 billion per year through 2030, while the reinvestment rate declines from 50% to 40% of cash flow. The company is prepared to adjust investments based on market conditions to improve NPV.
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Strategic Initiatives
Key strategic initiatives include high-grading the portfolio through divestments, with $24 billion of non-core assets sold since 2019. The company is investing in advantaged projects, such as the China chemical plant, advanced recycling units, and deep-water projects in Guyana and Brazil. ExxonMobil is also expanding its technology-enabled businesses, including Proxxima, with increased production capacity and collaborations. The Pioneer acquisition is exceeding expectations in terms of synergies.
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Management Commentary
Management emphasized the company's resilience and ability to navigate market volatility. They highlighted the importance of long-term investments and shareholder value creation. The CEO stated, "We play the long game," and emphasized the company's commitment to growing shareholder returns and distributions. They also noted the company's willingness to challenge actions that undermine its value.
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Industry and Market Conditions
Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the market due to tariffs and potential increases in OPEC supply, which are causing downward pressure on prices and margins. They noted that the industry has been in a long position from a supply standpoint for quite some time, leading to challenging margins in the chemicals business. The company is focused on controlling what it can, including cost management and high-value product development.
Comparative analysis
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Benchmarks (as of 2025-06-12)
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE)
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Performance Comparison:
- Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) has generally outperformed the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) over the past year, with YTD, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Months, 6 Months, and 1 Year returns all showing overperformance. However, over the 2-year period, XOM underperformed XLE, while over the 3-year period, XOM significantly outperformed XLE. For instance, YTD, XOM outperformed XLE by 3.42% (4.12% vs. 0.7%), while over 3 years, XOM outperformed XLE by 12.08% (26.89% vs. 14.81%).
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Risk and Return Analysis:
- The annualized returns show that XOM outperformed XLE over the 1-year and 3-year periods, but underperformed over the 2-year period. Specifically, the 3-year annualized return for XOM is 8.26% compared to 4.71% for XLE.
- The annualized volatility data indicates that XOM generally experienced slightly lower volatility compared to XLE. For example, in Q2 2025, XOM's volatility ranged from 18.12% to 40.96%, while XLE's ranged from 19.00% to 51.60%.
- The maximum drawdown for XOM was -20.51% on 2022-07-14, while for XLE it was -26.04% on the same date. This suggests that XOM experienced a less severe decline from its peak compared to XLE, indicating a potentially lower risk profile during market downturns.
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Risk-Adjusted Performance:
- The Sharpe Ratio analysis reveals that XOM generally had slightly higher Sharpe Ratios than XLE, indicating better risk-adjusted returns. However, both experienced fluctuations and periods of underperformance. As of 2025-06-12, XOM's Sharpe Ratio was 0.22, while XLE's was 0.12.
- The Beta values for both XOM and XLE have generally been below 1, indicating that both are less volatile than the overall market. XOM's Beta has consistently been slightly lower than XLE's, suggesting it is less sensitive to market movements. As of 2025-06-12, XOM's Beta was 0.51, while XLE's was 0.79.
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Overall Assessment:
- Based on the analysis, Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) has shown mixed performance compared to the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE). While XOM has outperformed XLE in recent periods and over the 3-year horizon, it underperformed over the 2-year period. XOM generally exhibits lower volatility and drawdown, suggesting a slightly lower risk profile. The Sharpe Ratio indicates that XOM has provided better risk-adjusted returns, although both have experienced fluctuations. The Beta values confirm that both XOM and XLE are less volatile than the overall market, with XOM being slightly less sensitive.
- A significant trend is the recent increase in volatility for both XOM and XLE in Q1 and Q2 2025, suggesting a potential rise in market uncertainty within the energy sector. Additionally, the Sharpe Ratios for both have been relatively low in recent periods, indicating that risk-adjusted returns have been less favorable.
Peers Price History(as of 2025-06-12)
- Performance Comparison:
- Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) has generally outperformed Chevron Corp. (CVX) over the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year periods, as well as year-to-date and 3-month periods. However, XOM has underperformed BP Plc (BP) year-to-date and over the 1-month and 6-month periods. For example, over the last 3 years, XOM has outperformed CVX by 29.15% and BP by 12.25%.
- Risk and Return Analysis:
- The annualized returns show that XOM has provided higher returns than CVX and BP over the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year periods. For instance, the 3-year annualized return for XOM is 8.26%, compared to -0.76% for CVX and 4.66% for BP.
- The annualized volatility data indicates that XOM generally exhibits lower volatility compared to CVX and BP, except for some periods in early 2023 and late 2024. In Q2 2025, XOM's volatility was 41.77%, CVX's was 47.38%, and BP's was 47.15%.
- The maximum drawdown for XOM was -18.92% on 2025-04-10, which is less than CVX's -22.26% on 2023-11-09 and BP's -33.03% on 2025-04-09. This suggests that XOM has a lower risk profile compared to its peers.
- Risk-Adjusted Performance:
- The Sharpe Ratios for XOM and CVX are generally higher than those for BP, indicating better risk-adjusted returns. However, in Q2 2025, all three companies had negative Sharpe ratios, indicating poor risk-adjusted performance during this period.
- The Beta values for XOM, CVX, and BP are generally below 1, indicating lower volatility compared to the market. XOM and CVX have similar Beta values, while BP's Beta is generally lower.
- Overall Assessment:
- Based on the analysis, Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) has generally demonstrated better performance and lower risk compared to Chevron Corp. (CVX) and BP Plc (BP). XOM has provided higher annualized returns, lower volatility, and smaller drawdowns. The Sharpe Ratios also indicate better risk-adjusted returns for XOM and CVX compared to BP. The Beta values suggest that XOM and CVX have similar risk profiles, while BP has a lower risk profile. However, recent trends in Q2 2025 show negative Sharpe ratios for all three companies, indicating poor risk-adjusted performance during this period.
Peers Fundamentals(as of 2025-03-31)
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Market Position and Size:
- Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) stands out with a significantly larger market capitalization of $471,733.19 million compared to Chevron Corp. (CVX) at $248,598.62 million and BP Plc (BP) at $60,006.32 million.
- This substantial market cap is supported by XOM's higher revenue ($339,744 million), EBITDA ($63,737 million), and Net Income ($33,173 million) compared to its peers.
- XOM's superior size, revenue generation, and profitability solidify its dominant market position within the peer group.
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Profitability and Efficiency:
- XOM's Gross Profit Margin of 22.2% is higher than CVX (14.11%) and BP (15.0%) but falls short of the industry average of 32.24%.
- The company's EBITDA Margin of 18.76% is slightly higher than CVX (18.14%) and significantly higher than BP (15.66%), but remains below the industry average of 47.75%.
- XOM's Net Profit Margin of 9.76% surpasses CVX (8.11%) and BP (-0.63%) but is slightly lower than the industry average of 10.5%.
- Despite its size and revenue, XOM demonstrates strong profitability, outperforming its peers in net profit margin but underperforming the industry average in gross profit and EBITDA margins.
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Financial Health and Stability:
- XOM's Current Ratio of 1.24 is higher than CVX (1.08) and slightly higher than BP (1.22), but lower than the industry average of 1.3.
- The company's Quick Ratio of 0.9 is higher than CVX (0.82) but lower than BP (0.92) and the industry average of 1.22.
- XOM's Total Debt to Total Equity Ratio of 14.29 is lower than CVX (19.89) and significantly lower than BP (122.19) and the industry average of 81.79.
- XOM's Debt / EBITDA of 0.59 is lower than CVX (0.85) and BP (2.4) and also lower than the industry average of 1.51.
- These figures indicate that XOM maintains strong liquidity and a conservative debt position relative to its market cap and peer group, reflecting financial stability.
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Valuation and Market Perception:
- XOM's Enterprise Value To Sales of 1.61 is slightly lower than CVX (1.65) and lower than the industry average of 2.98 but higher than BP (0.78).
- The company's Enterprise Value To EBITDA of 8.57 is slightly lower than CVX (9.1) but higher than BP (4.97) and the industry average of 6.22.
- XOM's Price To Earnings of 14.48 is lower than CVX (16.32) and the industry average of 23.85.
- XOM's Price to Book Ratio of 1.8 is higher than CVX (1.67) and BP (1.34) and slightly higher than the industry average of 1.71.
- XOM's Price To Sales Ratio of 1.41 is higher than CVX (1.29) and BP (0.42) but lower than the industry average of 2.13.
- Overall, XOM's valuation metrics suggest it is reasonably valued compared to its peers and industry standards, with a lower Price to Earnings ratio but a higher Price to Book ratio.
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Cash Flow and Capital Management:
- XOM's Net Operating Cash Flow is $53,311 million, surpassing CVX ($29,853 million) and BP ($19,662.2 million).
- The company's Total Capital Expenditure is $25,130 million, higher than CVX ($15,850 million) and BP ($11,699.9 million).
- XOM's Free Cash Flow is $28,181 million, exceeding CVX ($14,003 million) and BP ($7,962.33 million).
- These figures demonstrate XOM's strong cash flow generation relative to its size, peers, and industry norms, reflecting efficient operations and capital management.
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Growth and Future Prospect:
- XOM exhibits consistently lower growth in Sales/Revenue, EBITDA, Free Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow Margin, and EBIT Margin compared to the peer group average.
- However, XOM shows consistently higher growth in Net Income and Basic Earnings per Share compared to its peers.
- The company's year-over-year growth rates fluctuate significantly, and its 3-year and 5-year CAGR figures reveal a decreasing trend in growth rates.
- XOM's competitive position may be at risk due to its lower growth rates in key metrics compared to its peers.
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Potential for Investment:
- XOM presents a compelling investment opportunity due to its dominant market position, strong financial health, and efficient operations.
- While its growth prospects may be a concern, its robust profitability, conservative financial management, and reasonable valuation make it an attractive investment option compared to its peers and the broader industry.
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Key Risks and Considerations:
- XOM's lower growth rates in key metrics such as Sales/Revenue, EBITDA, and Free Cash Flow compared to its peers pose a risk to its future competitive position.
- The company's Gross Profit Margin and EBITDA Margin are lower than the industry average, indicating potential inefficiencies in its cost structure.
- XOM's Cash Flow / Total Debt is significantly lower than the industry average, suggesting a need to improve its cash flow generation relative to its debt obligations.
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Overall Assessment:
- XOM demonstrates strong financial health, characterized by its dominant market position, robust profitability, efficient operations, and conservative financial management.
- While there are areas for improvement, such as increasing gross profit and EBITDA margins and improving cash flow generation relative to debt, XOM's overall financial performance is solid and sustainable.
- XOM holds a leading competitive position within its peer group and the broader industry, driven by its superior size, revenue generation, profitability, and efficient operations.
- Despite facing challenges in maintaining growth rates and improving certain profitability metrics, XOM's strong financial health and market dominance position it well for long-term success.
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