Thematic evaluation
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Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

October 07, 2024

Compared to: Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) | Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL) | Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY)

Our reasoning

Amazon's current valuation appears slightly undervalued considering its strong financial performance, market leadership, and significant growth opportunities in AI, healthcare, and cloud computing. While the P/E ratio is high, the company's exceptional free cash flow growth, above-average profitability metrics, and potential for continued expansion in high-growth sectors justify a premium valuation. However, regulatory risks and intense competition temper the upside potential.

Key takeaways
  • Amazon is a financially strong company with robust revenue growth, expanding profitability, and healthy cash flows.
  • The company is making significant investments in technology infrastructure, fulfillment network, and headcount to support growth.
  • Amazon is effectively managing its costs and increasing its efficiency, which is contributing to its expanding profitability.
  • The company's investments in technology, logistics, and potentially healthcare are expected to drive future growth and profitability.
  • However, the company faces intensifying competition and regulatory scrutiny that could impact its growth and profitability.
Undervalued

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Evaluation summary
  1. Company Overview:

    • Amazon.com, Inc. is a multinational technology company that operates in three main segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). The company's business model is centered around providing online retail shopping services, third-party seller services, cloud computing offerings, advertising services, digital content, and electronic devices. Amazon serves a diverse set of customers, including consumers, sellers, developers, enterprises, content creators, and advertisers. The company's target market is global, encompassing a wide range of demographics and purchasing behaviors.
    • Amazon's revenue is primarily generated from its online retail stores, third-party seller services, and AWS cloud computing offerings. The company's revenue growth is driven by its dominant position in e-commerce and cloud computing, its vast customer base, expanding product offerings, and increasing advertising and subscription services.
    • Amazon faces intense competition from large tech companies and emerging players in the e-commerce and cloud computing industries. The company is also subject to increasing regulatory scrutiny, with investigations and lawsuits related to competition, data privacy, and other issues in various jurisdictions.
    • For comparative analysis, we will be using the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) as a benchmark and Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL) and Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) as industry peers.
  2. Financial Performance:

    • Amazon's revenue has grown consistently over the past few years, driven by its dominant position in e-commerce and cloud computing. The company's revenue growth is expected to continue in the coming quarters, driven by its investments in technology, logistics, and potentially healthcare.
    • Amazon's profitability is strong and improving, as evidenced by its expanding gross margin, operating margin, and net margin. The company is effectively managing its costs and increasing its efficiency, which is contributing to its expanding profitability.
    • Amazon's return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and return on invested capital (ROIC) have all been improving in recent quarters. This suggests that the company is effectively deploying its assets to generate revenue and profits.
    • Compared to its peers, Amazon's revenue growth has been mixed. While it has outperformed GOOGL in some periods, it has consistently underperformed META, particularly over longer timeframes. Amazon's profitability has also been lower than GOOGL's, but higher than META's.
  3. Operational Efficiency:

    • Amazon's asset utilization efficiency is improving, as evidenced by the expanding return on assets and other profitability ratios. This suggests that the company is effectively deploying its assets to generate revenue and profits.
    • Amazon's working capital management is efficient, with a strong current ratio and quick ratio. However, the company's increasing reliance on short-term financing could pose a risk if it faces unexpected economic downturns or liquidity challenges.
    • Amazon's cash flows are strong and growing, driven by its robust profitability and investments in growth initiatives. The company is making significant investments in its growth, with a substantial increase in capital expenditures.
    • Amazon's free cash flow has been growing steadily in recent quarters, driven by its strong profitability and investments in growth initiatives. The company's free cash flow margin is also expanding, indicating that it is becoming more efficient in generating cash flow from its operations.
    • Amazon's capital expenditures have been increasing in recent quarters, driven by its investments in technology infrastructure, fulfillment network, and headcount to support growth. The company's depreciation expense has also been increasing, reflecting the aging of its assets.
    • Amazon has not paid dividends in recent quarters, but it has authorized a $10 billion stock repurchase program, with $6.1 billion remaining as of June 2024.
    • Compared to its peers, Amazon's operational efficiency is mixed. While its working capital management is more efficient than META's, its asset utilization efficiency is lower than GOOGL's.
    • Amazon's short-term liquidity is strong, with a significant amount of cash and short-term investments. However, the company's increasing reliance on short-term financing could pose a risk if it faces unexpected economic downturns or liquidity challenges.
    • Amazon's long-term solvency is strong, with a healthy level of equity and a decreasing debt burden. The company's robust cash flow generation further supports its financial stability.
  4. Growth Opportunities:

    • Amazon is expanding its market reach through acquisitions, strategic partnerships, and investments in new technologies. The company recently acquired 1Life Healthcare, Inc. (One Medical) for $3.5 billion to expand its healthcare offerings.
    • Amazon is investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI), with the company launching more than twice as many machine learning and generative AI features into general availability than all other major cloud providers combined.
    • Amazon is expanding its geographic reach, with plans to invest in new fulfillment centers and data centers in various regions around the world.
    • Amazon is focused on driving a better customer experience, which it believes is the key to creating lasting value for shareholders. The company is investing in new technologies and services to improve its customer experience, such as faster delivery times, personalized recommendations, and enhanced customer support.
    • Amazon's management has a history of successfully executing strategic plans, as evidenced by the company's consistent revenue growth and expanding profitability.
  5. Risks and Threats:

    • Amazon faces intense competition from larger tech firms and emerging players, especially in new product/service areas.
    • Risks associated with international expansion and operations, including regulatory, political, and economic uncertainties.
    • Challenges in optimizing and operating complex fulfillment and data center networks.
    • Exposure to data security breaches and system interruptions.
    • Reliance on key suppliers and commercial relationships, with potential disruptions.
    • Legal and regulatory risks, including antitrust investigations, product liability claims, and tax liabilities.
    • Macroeconomic headwinds like inflation, interest rates, and supply chain issues are creating uncertainties and pressures, requiring Amazon to carefully manage costs and optimize its business.
  6. Valuation Analysis:

    • Amazon's valuation is currently high, with a P/E ratio of 45.5 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 19.59. This reflects the company's strong growth prospects and dominant market position.
    • Compared to its peers, Amazon's valuation is higher than GOOGL's, but lower than META's. This suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for Amazon's growth potential, but not as high a premium as they are willing to pay for META's growth potential.
    • Potential catalysts for Amazon's stock price include continued revenue growth, expanding profitability, and new product launches.
  7. Price Performance:

    • Amazon's stock price has been volatile in recent months, but it has generally outperformed the benchmark XLY over longer periods. However, in shorter periods, such as 3 months and 6 months, AMZN has underperformed XLY. This suggests that AMZN's performance is more volatile and less consistent than XLY's.
    • Compared to its peers, Amazon's price performance has been mixed. While it has outperformed GOOGL in some periods, it has consistently underperformed META, particularly over longer timeframes. This suggests that AMZN's growth trajectory may be lagging behind META, despite its strong performance in certain periods.
  8. Future Outlook:

    • Amazon's management expects revenue growth of 11-12% in 2023 and 2024 YTD, driven by increased unit sales, advertising, and subscription services.
    • Amazon's management expects profitability to improve in 2023 and 2024 YTD, with operating margins expanding due to cost efficiencies and change in server useful life estimates.
    • Analyst estimates for Amazon's revenue and earnings growth are generally positive, with a consensus expectation for continued growth in the coming quarters.
  9. Summary:

    • Amazon is a financially strong company with robust revenue growth, expanding profitability, and healthy cash flows. The company is making significant investments in technology infrastructure, fulfillment network, and headcount to support growth.
    • Amazon's operational efficiency is improving, as evidenced by its expanding return on assets and other profitability ratios. The company is effectively managing its costs and increasing its efficiency, which is contributing to its expanding profitability.
    • Amazon faces intense competition and regulatory scrutiny that could impact its growth and profitability. However, the company's investments in technology, logistics, and potentially healthcare are expected to drive future growth and profitability.
    • Amazon's valuation is currently high, reflecting the company's strong growth prospects and dominant market position. However, the company's price performance has been volatile in recent months, and it has underperformed its peers in some periods.
    • Overall, Amazon is a well-positioned company with strong growth potential. However, investors should be aware of the company's risks and threats, including intense competition, regulatory scrutiny, and macroeconomic headwinds.
Peer fundamentals 
Fundamentals
Insights
  • Amazon's financial performance is strong, with robust revenue growth, expanding profitability, and healthy cash flows.
  • The company is making significant investments in technology infrastructure, fulfillment network, and headcount to support growth.
  • Amazon is effectively managing its costs and increasing its efficiency, which is contributing to its expanding profitability.
  • The company's investments in technology, logistics, and potentially healthcare are expected to drive future growth and profitability.
  • However, the company faces intensifying competition and regulatory scrutiny that could impact its growth and profitability.
Analysis
  • Revenue - Amazon's revenue growth is strong and sustainable, driven by its dominant position in e-commerce and cloud computing. - The company is effectively leveraging its vast customer base, expanding product offerings, and increasing advertising and subscription services to drive revenue growth. - The company's revenue growth is expected to continue in the coming quarters, driven by its investments in technology, logistics, and potentially healthcare.
    • Profitability
      • Amazon's profitability is strong and improving, as evidenced by its expanding gross margin, operating margin, and net margin.
      • The company is effectively managing its costs and increasing its efficiency, which is contributing to its expanding profitability.
      • The company's profitability is expected to remain strong in the coming quarters, driven by its investments in technology, logistics, and potentially healthcare.
    • Liquidity
      • Amazon's liquidity position is strong, with a significant amount of cash and short-term investments.
      • However, the company's increasing reliance on short-term financing could pose a risk if it faces unexpected economic downturns or liquidity challenges.
      • The company's strong cash flow generation provides flexibility in managing its debt levels.
    • Solvency
      • Amazon's long-term solvency is strong, with a healthy level of equity and a decreasing debt burden.
      • The company's robust cash flow generation further supports its financial stability.
      • The company's financial flexibility is strong, with ample cash flow to fund future investments and acquisitions.
    • Operational Efficiency
      • Amazon's asset utilization efficiency is improving, as evidenced by the expanding return on assets and other profitability ratios.
      • This suggests that the company is effectively deploying its assets to generate revenue and profits.
      • The company's investments in technology and logistics are driving operational efficiency and contributing to its expanding profitability.
    • Cash Flow Analysis
      • Amazon's cash flows are strong and growing, driven by its robust profitability and investments in growth initiatives.
      • The company is making significant investments in its growth, with a substantial increase in capital expenditures.
      • The company is reducing its reliance on debt financing, suggesting a focus on managing financial leverage and potentially prioritizing organic growth over debt-funded acquisitions.
    • Risk Factors
      • The increasing reliance on short-term financing could pose a risk if the company faces unexpected economic downturns or liquidity challenges.
      • Regulatory scrutiny and potential antitrust investigations could impact Amazon's future growth and profitability.
      • The company's investments in technology and logistics are straining its resources and operations.
      • Macroeconomic headwinds like inflation, interest rates, and supply chain issues are creating uncertainties and pressures, requiring Amazon to carefully manage costs and optimize its business.
    • Future Outlook
      • Amazon's financial performance is expected to remain strong, with robust revenue growth, expanding profitability, and healthy cash flows.
      • The company's investments in technology, logistics, and potentially healthcare are expected to drive future growth and profitability.
      • However, the company faces intensifying competition and regulatory scrutiny that could impact its growth and profitability.
Most recent earnings report
Financial statements 
All public filings
Comparative Analysis
Benchmarks (as of 2024-10-04)
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY)
  • Performance Comparison:
    • AMZN has generally outperformed XLY over longer periods, such as 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years. However, in shorter periods, such as 3 months and 6 months, AMZN has underperformed XLY. This suggests that AMZN's performance is more volatile and less consistent than XLY's.
  • Risk and Return Analysis:
    • AMZN has delivered higher annualized returns than XLY over the analyzed period. However, this higher return comes with a higher level of risk.
    • AMZN has consistently exhibited higher annualized volatility than XLY, indicating that AMZN's price fluctuations are more pronounced.
    • AMZN has experienced significantly larger drawdowns than XLY, with a maximum drawdown of 56.15% compared to XLY's 39.67%. This suggests that AMZN is a riskier investment than XLY, as it is more susceptible to price declines.
  • Risk-Adjusted Performance:
    • XLY has consistently shown a higher Sharpe ratio than AMZN, indicating that XLY has delivered better risk-adjusted returns.
    • AMZN's beta value greater than 1 suggests that it is more sensitive to market movements than XLY. This means that AMZN's price is likely to fluctuate more than XLY's during periods of market volatility.
  • Overall Assessment:
    • AMZN has shown strong growth potential and has delivered higher returns than XLY. However, this comes with a higher level of risk, as evidenced by its higher volatility and larger drawdowns. XLY, on the other hand, has provided more consistent performance and better risk-adjusted returns.
    • Investors seeking higher returns with a higher risk tolerance may consider AMZN. However, investors seeking more stable performance and better risk-adjusted returns may prefer XLY.
Peers Price History(as of 2024-10-04)
  • Performance Comparison:
    • AMZN has shown mixed performance compared to its peers. While it has outperformed GOOGL in some periods, it has consistently underperformed META, particularly over longer timeframes. This suggests that AMZN's growth trajectory may be lagging behind META, despite its strong performance in certain periods.
  • Risk and Return Analysis:
    • AMZN has generally provided lower annualized returns than META, but higher returns than GOOGL. However, this comes with a higher level of volatility. AMZN's annualized volatility has been consistently higher than GOOGL, indicating a higher risk profile.
    • AMZN has experienced significant drawdowns, with its maximum drawdown exceeding 50% in Q4 2022. This is comparable to GOOGL's maximum drawdown, but significantly lower than META's maximum drawdown of over 70%. This suggests that AMZN's risk profile is more moderate than META's, but still higher than GOOGL's.
  • Risk-Adjusted Performance:
    • AMZN's Sharpe ratio has been consistently lower than GOOGL's, indicating that GOOGL has offered better risk-adjusted returns. However, AMZN's Sharpe ratio has been higher than META's, suggesting that AMZN has been more efficient in generating returns relative to its risk.
    • AMZN's beta has consistently been above 1, indicating that it is more volatile than the overall market. However, its beta has been lower than META's, suggesting that AMZN is less sensitive to market movements than META.
  • Overall Assessment:
    • AMZN has shown mixed performance compared to its peers. While it has outperformed GOOGL in some periods, it has consistently underperformed META, particularly over longer timeframes. This suggests that AMZN's growth trajectory may be lagging behind META, despite its strong performance in certain periods.
    • AMZN's risk profile is more moderate than META's, but still higher than GOOGL's. This is reflected in its higher volatility and drawdowns compared to GOOGL, but lower volatility and drawdowns compared to META.
    • AMZN's risk-adjusted performance has been better than META's, but worse than GOOGL's. This suggests that while AMZN has been more efficient in generating returns relative to its risk than META, it has not been as efficient as GOOGL.
    • Overall, AMZN appears to be a more moderate growth company with a higher risk profile than GOOGL, but a lower risk profile than META. Investors seeking higher growth potential may prefer META, while investors seeking a more moderate risk profile may prefer GOOGL.
Peers Fundamentals(as of 2024-06-30)
  1. Market Position and Size:

    • AMZN is the second-largest company in the peer group by market capitalization, with a market cap of $1,806,500 million, trailing Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL) at $1,991,510 million but exceeding Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) at $1,311,000 million.
    • AMZN's market capitalization is significantly larger than its revenue, EBITDA, and net income, indicating a premium valuation compared to its peers.
    • AMZN's market position within the peer group is characterized by its substantial size and dominance in the e-commerce sector. While GOOGL holds a larger market cap, AMZN's revenue and profitability are significantly higher, suggesting a stronger market position in its core business.
  2. Profitability and Efficiency:

    • AMZN's Gross Profit Margin, EBITDA Margin, and Net Profit Margin are lower than its peers, particularly GOOGL and META, but significantly higher than the industry average.
    • Despite its large size and revenue, AMZN's profitability metrics are lower than its peers, potentially due to its competitive pricing strategies and investments in growth initiatives.
    • AMZN's efficiency in generating returns is lower than its peers, suggesting that AMZN may be less efficient in utilizing its assets and capital to generate profits compared to its peers. However, AMZN's returns are significantly higher than the industry average, indicating a strong competitive advantage in terms of asset utilization and capital efficiency within the retail trade sector.
  3. Financial Health and Stability:

    • AMZN's liquidity position is weaker than its peers, with a lower Current Ratio and Quick Ratio.
    • AMZN's debt position is relatively strong compared to its peers, with a lower Total Debt to Total Equity Ratio and Debt / EBITDA.
    • AMZN's overall financial health is strong, characterized by robust profitability and cash flow generation, a dominant market position, and significant investments in growth. However, AMZN's slower revenue growth, lower efficiency in generating returns, and high debt levels are areas of concern that could impact its future performance.
  4. Valuation and Market Perception:

    • AMZN's valuation metrics are mixed compared to its peers and industry averages. While its Enterprise Value To Sales and Price To Sales Ratio are lower than its peers, indicating a lower valuation relative to revenue, its Price To Earnings and Price to Book Ratio are higher, suggesting a premium valuation relative to earnings and book value.
    • This suggests that the market may be placing a higher value on AMZN's growth potential and future earnings prospects compared to its peers.
  5. Cash Flow and Capital Management:

    • AMZN's Net Operating Cash Flow is lower than GOOGL's, but it is higher than META's, indicating a strong ability to generate cash from operations.
    • AMZN's Total Capital Expenditure is higher than its peers, suggesting significant investments in growth initiatives.
    • This results in a lower Free Cash Flow compared to its peers, indicating a lower level of cash available for shareholder returns.
  6. Growth and Future Prospects:

    • AMZN's growth metrics show a mixed performance compared to the peer group average. AMZN consistently outperforms in terms of EBITDA, Net Income, Basic Earnings per Share, Free Cash Flow, and Free Cash Flow Margin growth, indicating strong profitability and cash flow generation. However, AMZN consistently underperforms in terms of Sales/Revenue, Total Assets, and Book Value Per Share growth, suggesting a slower pace of revenue and asset expansion compared to its peers.
    • AMZN's 5-year CAGR figures are consistently higher than its 3-year CAGRs for Sales/Revenue, EBITDA, Net Income, Basic Earnings per Share, Free Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow Margin, Total Assets, and Book Value Per Share. This indicates that AMZN's growth has been accelerating over the past five years, suggesting a positive long-term growth trend.
    • AMZN's growth profile is characterized by strong profitability and cash flow growth, but slower revenue and asset expansion compared to its peers. This suggests that AMZN may be prioritizing profitability and cash flow generation over rapid revenue growth, potentially due to its focus on long-term sustainability and market share dominance.
  7. Potential for Investment:

    • AMZN's investment attractiveness is mixed. While its strong profitability, cash flow generation, and growth potential are attractive, its slower revenue growth, lower efficiency in generating returns, and high debt levels are areas of concern. Investors should carefully consider these factors before making an investment decision.
  8. Key Risks and Considerations:

    • AMZN's slower revenue growth could indicate challenges in expanding its market share or capturing new customer segments.
    • AMZN's lower efficiency in generating returns suggests that it may be less efficient in utilizing its assets and capital to generate profits compared to its peers.
    • AMZN's high level of debt may pose a risk to its financial stability, particularly if interest rates rise or economic conditions deteriorate.
  9. Overall Assessment:

    • AMZN is a financially strong company with a dominant market position, robust profitability, and significant investments in growth. However, its slower revenue growth, lower efficiency in generating returns, and high debt levels are areas of concern that could impact its future performance. Investors should carefully consider these factors before making an investment decision.