Thematic evaluation
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Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)

September 06, 2024

Compared to: The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) | Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR) | The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC)

Our reasoning

Comcast appears undervalued based on its strong financial performance, diversified business model, and growth prospects in broadband and wireless segments. The company's EV/EBITDA ratio of 6.57 is below the industry average, suggesting potential undervaluation, while its high profitability and efficient asset utilization indicate a strong competitive position not fully reflected in the current stock price.

Key takeaways
  • Comcast's financial performance is mixed, with slowing revenue growth but strong profitability and cash flow generation.
  • The company's broadband and wireless businesses are key growth drivers, while the video and media segments face challenges.
  • Comcast is investing heavily in its growth initiatives, including network upgrades, new theme park attractions, and strategic content partnerships.
  • The company faces intense competition and changing consumer preferences, but its strong financial position and commitment to innovation position it for long-term success.
  • Investors should monitor the company's ability to manage rising programming and content costs, the impact of regulatory changes, and the influence of the Chairman/CEO through the company's dual-class share structure.
Undervalued

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Evaluation summary
  1. Company Overview:

    • Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) is a global media and technology conglomerate with two primary business segments: Connectivity & Platforms and Content & Experiences.
    • Connectivity & Platforms includes broadband, wireless, video, and wireline voice services primarily under the Xfinity, Comcast Business, and Sky brands.
    • Content & Experiences includes media and entertainment businesses that produce and distribute content globally, as well as theme parks in the U.S. and Asia.
    • Key products/services include broadband internet, wireless services, video entertainment, theme parks, and content licensing/distribution.
    • Major customers include residential and business subscribers for connectivity services, media networks, and theme park guests.
    • Key competitors include other telecommunications/cable providers, streaming services, media companies, and theme park operators.
    • For comparative analysis, we will be using The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC) as a benchmark and The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) and Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR) as industry peers.
  2. Financial Performance:

    • Comcast's revenue growth has been slowing in recent quarters, with a 2.7% decline in Q2 2024. This decline was primarily driven by a tough comparison to a record quarter last year for the studio business.
    • Excluding the studio results, total revenue would have been consistent with the prior year.
    • The company's profitability remains strong, with a net profit margin of 13.23% in Q2 2024, significantly higher than the industry average.
    • Comcast's EBITDA margin has been improving, reflecting a decline in overall expenses and a mix-shift to higher-margin connectivity businesses.
    • The company's return on average assets (ROA) is 5.75%, significantly higher than the industry average, indicating efficient asset utilization.
    • However, ROA has been decreasing in recent quarters, suggesting potential challenges in maintaining asset efficiency.
    • Compared to its peers, Comcast has generally outperformed Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR) on a risk-adjusted basis, but has consistently underperformed The Walt Disney Co. (DIS).
  3. Operational Efficiency:

    • Comcast's working capital management has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in working capital in recent quarters.
    • The company's cash flow from operations has been strong, with a net operating cash flow of $4.7 billion in Q2 2024.
    • Free cash flow generation has been robust, with a free cash flow margin of 0.05% in Q2 2024.
    • Comcast's capital expenditure (CapEx) has been high, reflecting investments in network upgrades, new theme park attractions, and strategic initiatives.
    • The company has a strong dividend and share repurchase program, returning $3.4 billion of capital to shareholders in Q2 2024.
    • Comcast's current ratio is 0.66, slightly lower than the industry average, indicating a strong short-term liquidity position.
    • The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 126.81%, significantly lower than the industry average, indicating a strong solvency position.
    • Compared to its peers, Comcast has a lower risk profile than DIS and CHTR, as indicated by its lower volatility and maximum drawdown.
  4. Growth Opportunities:

    • Comcast is focused on expanding its broadband and wireless businesses, driven by strong ARPU growth and customer line additions.
    • The company is investing heavily in network capacity and technology to capitalize on increasing data consumption trends.
    • The theme parks business is expected to benefit from the upcoming opening of Epic Universe in 2025.
    • Comcast has announced a significant 11-year rights deal with the NBA, which will provide content across its broadcast, cable, and streaming platforms, further strengthening its sports programming portfolio and ability to drive subscriber growth and advertising revenue.
    • The company's strategic focus areas include expanding its broadband and wireless businesses, investing in its theme parks, and leveraging its content and experiences segments to adapt to changing market dynamics.
    • Management has expressed confidence in the company's ability to execute and innovate, leveraging its scale, balance sheet, and relevancy to compete effectively in the evolving media and telecommunications landscape.
  5. Risks and Threats:

    • Comcast faces intense competition across its connectivity, media, and theme park businesses.
    • Changing consumer behavior and preferences are impacting traditional business models, particularly in the video and media segments.
    • Rising programming and content costs are a significant challenge for the company.
    • Cybersecurity threats and technology disruptions pose a risk to Comcast's operations.
    • Regulatory changes and legal/governmental proceedings could impact the company's business.
    • The influence of the Chairman/CEO through the company's dual-class share structure is a potential governance concern.
  6. Valuation Analysis:

    • Comcast's valuation metrics, such as P/E and EV/EBITDA, are generally in line with its peers.
    • The company's valuation is supported by its strong financial performance, growth opportunities, and robust free cash flow generation.
    • Potential catalysts for future growth include the expansion of its broadband and wireless businesses, the opening of Epic Universe, and the strategic value of the NBA partnership.
  7. Price Performance:

    • Comcast's stock price has generally outperformed Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR) over the past three years, with a few exceptions.
    • However, CMCSA has consistently underperformed The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) over the same period.
    • Comcast's stock price has been more volatile than XLC, but its beta value suggests it is slightly less sensitive to market movements than XLC.
    • Compared to its peers, Comcast has a lower risk profile than DIS and CHTR, as indicated by its lower volatility and maximum drawdown.
  8. Future Outlook:

    • Management's guidance suggests continued growth in the broadband and wireless businesses, with potential headwinds in the video and media segments.
    • The theme parks business is expected to benefit from the upcoming opening of Epic Universe.
    • Analyst estimates are generally positive, with consensus expectations for continued growth in revenue and earnings.
    • The company's strategic focus on expanding its connectivity businesses, investing in its theme parks, and leveraging its content and experiences segments to adapt to changing market dynamics suggests a positive long-term outlook.
  9. Summary:

    • Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) is a diversified media and technology conglomerate with a strong financial position, robust free cash flow generation, and a commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
    • The company faces intense competition and changing consumer preferences, but is investing heavily in its growth initiatives to adapt to the evolving media and telecommunications landscape.
    • Comcast's valuation is supported by its strong financial performance, growth opportunities, and robust free cash flow generation.
    • The company's future outlook is positive, with continued growth expected in its broadband and wireless businesses, the opening of Epic Universe, and the strategic value of the NBA partnership.
    • Key areas requiring further monitoring include the company's ability to manage rising programming and content costs, the impact of regulatory changes, and the influence of the Chairman/CEO through the company's dual-class share structure.
    • Overall, Comcast is a well-positioned company with a strong financial position, a diversified business model, and a commitment to innovation.
    • However, investors should be aware of the company's exposure to industry disruption and the potential for increased competition.
Peer fundamentals 
Fundamentals
Insights
  • Comcast's revenue growth is slowing, but the company is becoming more profitable.
  • Comcast is effectively controlling its operating expenses.
  • Comcast is highly profitable, with a net profit margin of 13.23%, which is significantly higher than the industry average.
  • Comcast has a strong financial position, with high profitability and low leverage.
  • Comcast is investing heavily in its growth initiatives, as evidenced by its high CapEx.
  • Comcast is committed to returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
  • Comcast's announced strategic initiatives, such as the launch of its new streaming service Peacock, are expected to have a positive impact on future earnings and cash flows.
Analysis
  • Revenue - Comcast's revenue growth is slowing, but the company is becoming more profitable. - The company's revenue growth is being impacted by the decline in its traditional video business, which is being impacted by the rise of streaming services. - Comcast's revenue growth is expected to continue to slow in the coming quarters.
    • Profitability
      • Comcast is highly profitable, with a net profit margin of 13.23%, which is significantly higher than the industry average.
      • The company's profitability is increasing, as evidenced by the increase in its gross margin, operating margin, and net margin.
      • Comcast's profitability is expected to continue to improve in the coming quarters.
    • Liquidity
      • Comcast has a strong liquidity position, as evidenced by its current ratio of 0.66, which is slightly lower than the industry average.
      • The company's liquidity position is decreasing, as evidenced by the decrease in its current ratio.
    • Solvency
      • Comcast has a strong solvency position, as evidenced by its low debt-to-equity ratio of 126.81%, which is significantly lower than the industry average.
      • The company's solvency position is improving, as evidenced by the decrease in its debt-to-equity ratio.
    • Operational Efficiency
      • Comcast is efficiently utilizing its assets, as evidenced by its high return on average assets of 5.75%, which is significantly higher than the industry average.
      • The company's asset utilization efficiency is decreasing, as evidenced by the decrease in its return on average assets.
    • Cash Flow Analysis
      • Comcast's cash flow is expected to continue to grow in the coming quarters, but at a slower pace than in the past.
      • The company's strong free cash flow generation will allow it to continue to invest in its growth initiatives, return capital to shareholders, and manage its debt obligations.
      • Comcast's announced strategic initiatives, such as the launch of its new streaming service Peacock, are expected to have a positive impact on future cash flows.
    • Risk Factors
      • Comcast's revenue growth is slowing, which could be a concern for investors.
      • The company's free cash flow margin is decreasing, which is a potential concern.
      • The company's asset utilization efficiency is decreasing, which is a potential concern.
    • Future Outlook
      • Comcast is well-positioned for long-term success, with a strong financial position, a diversified business model, and a commitment to innovation.
      • The company's focus on its broadband and wireless businesses is expected to continue to drive its profitability.
      • Comcast's announced strategic initiatives, such as the launch of its new streaming service Peacock, are expected to have a positive impact on future earnings and cash flows.
Most recent earnings report
Financial statements 
All public filings
Comparative Analysis
Benchmarks (as of 2024-08-09)
The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC)
  • Performance Comparison:
    • CMCSA has consistently underperformed XLC over all periods analyzed, with the most significant underperformance occurring in the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year periods. This suggests that CMCSA has struggled to keep pace with the broader communication services sector.
  • Risk and Return Analysis:
    • CMCSA has provided lower annualized returns than XLC over all periods analyzed. This suggests that CMCSA has not been as profitable as XLC.
    • CMCSA has generally been more volatile than XLC, with CMCSA's volatility ranging from 11.9% to 42.31% and XLC's volatility ranging from 9.48% to 39.14%. This suggests that CMCSA is a riskier investment than XLC.
    • CMCSA has experienced larger maximum drawdowns than XLC, with CMCSA's maximum drawdown reaching 52.11% in Q3 of 2022, while XLC's maximum drawdown reached 43.98% in the same quarter. This indicates that CMCSA is more susceptible to significant losses than XLC.
  • Risk-Adjusted Performance:
    • XLC has consistently offered a better risk-adjusted return than CMCSA, as evidenced by its higher Sharpe ratio. This suggests that XLC has been more efficient at generating returns relative to its risk.
    • CMCSA's beta value suggests that it is slightly less sensitive to market movements than XLC, but both instruments are considered to be relatively risky investments.
  • Overall Assessment:
    • CMCSA has underperformed XLC in terms of both absolute and risk-adjusted returns. CMCSA has also been more volatile and has experienced larger drawdowns than XLC, indicating a higher risk profile. While CMCSA's beta value suggests it is slightly less sensitive to market movements than XLC, both instruments are considered to be relatively risky investments. Overall, the analysis suggests that XLC has been a more attractive investment than CMCSA, offering better risk-adjusted returns and a lower risk profile.
    • The analysis highlights the importance of considering both risk and return when making investment decisions. While CMCSA may offer some potential for growth, its higher risk profile and lower returns make it a less attractive investment than XLC.
Peers Price History(as of 2024-09-04)
  • Performance Comparison:
    • Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) has generally outperformed Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR) over the past three years, with a few exceptions. However, CMCSA has consistently underperformed The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) over the same period.
    • The performance of CMCSA has been more consistent than CHTR, which has experienced more significant periods of outperformance and underperformance.
  • Risk and Return Analysis:
    • Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) has generally provided higher annualized returns than CHTR over the past three years. However, CMCSA has consistently provided lower annualized returns than DIS.
    • The annualized volatility of CMCSA has generally been lower than DIS and CHTR, indicating a lower risk profile.
    • The maximum drawdown of CMCSA has been lower than DIS and CHTR, further indicating a lower risk profile.
  • Risk-Adjusted Performance:
    • The Sharpe Ratio of CMCSA has generally been higher than DIS and CHTR, indicating a better risk-adjusted return.
    • The beta value of CMCSA has generally been lower than DIS and CHTR, indicating a lower sensitivity to market movements.
  • Overall Assessment:
    • Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) has generally outperformed Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR) on a risk-adjusted basis, but has consistently underperformed The Walt Disney Co. (DIS).
    • CMCSA has a lower risk profile than DIS and CHTR, as indicated by its lower volatility and maximum drawdown.
    • The recent trends suggest that the volatility of all three companies has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Q3 2024. However, CHTR remains the most volatile of the three companies.
    • The recent trends also suggest that the Sharpe Ratios of all three companies have been fluctuating, with no clear upward or downward trend.
    • The beta values of all three companies have generally been below 1 over the past three years, indicating that they are less volatile than the overall market.
Peers Fundamentals(as of 2024-06-30)
  1. Market Position and Size:

    • Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of 149750.0, placing it between its peers, The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) with a market cap of 161863.0 and Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR) with a market cap of 47338.6.
    • CMCSA's revenue, EBITDA, and net income generally reflect its size, indicating a significant presence in the cable/satellite TV industry.
  2. Profitability and Efficiency:

    • CMCSA exhibits significantly higher gross profit margin, EBITDA margin, and net profit margin compared to its peers and the industry average, highlighting its efficient operations and strong competitive advantage.
    • CMCSA demonstrates significantly higher ROA, ROTE, ROTC, and ROIC compared to its peers and the industry average, indicating its efficient use of assets, equity capital, and overall capital structure.
  3. Financial Health and Stability:

    • CMCSA has a moderate level of liquidity, with enough current assets to cover its current liabilities, but not as much as the industry average.
    • CMCSA has a high level of debt relative to its equity, but not as high as CHTR and lower than the industry average.
    • CMCSA's debt / EBITDA ratio is moderate, suggesting that it has a manageable level of debt relative to its earnings.
  4. Valuation and Market Perception:

    • CMCSA's valuation metrics are generally lower than its peers and the industry average, particularly in terms of EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, and P/E.
    • This suggests that the market may perceive CMCSA as having lower growth prospects or a higher risk profile compared to its peers and the industry.
  5. Cash Flow and Capital Management:

    • CMCSA is a strong cash flow generator, with a significant amount of free cash flow after accounting for its capital expenditures.
    • This indicates its strong cash flow generation and ability to fund future growth and shareholder returns.
    • CMCSA's high capital expenditures reflect its investments in growth and expansion.
  6. Growth and Future Prospect:

    • CMCSA shows consistently higher growth in net income, basic earnings per share, and return on average total equity compared to the peer group average.
    • However, its year-over-year growth rates exhibit significant fluctuations, particularly in net income, basic earnings per share, and return on average total equity, suggesting that its growth is not always consistent.
    • CMCSA's growth in net income, basic earnings per share, and return on average total equity has been accelerating over the past few years, potentially due to its investments in its core businesses and its focus on expanding its broadband and streaming services.
  7. Potential for Investment:

    • CMCSA is a financially healthy company with a strong competitive advantage in its core businesses.
    • However, its growth rate fluctuations and high debt levels are potential risks to its future performance.
    • Investors should carefully consider these factors before making an investment decision.
  8. Key Risks and Considerations:

    • CMCSA's growth rate fluctuations, particularly in net income, basic earnings per share, and return on average total equity, suggest that its growth is not always consistent.
    • CMCSA's high debt levels, reflecting its significant capital structure and investments in its business, may pose a risk to its financial stability.
  9. Overall Assessment:

    • Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) is a financially healthy company with a strong competitive advantage in its core businesses.
    • However, its growth rate fluctuations and high debt levels are potential risks to its future performance.
    • Investors should carefully consider these factors before making an investment decision.