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Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)

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February 20, 2025Undervalued
Compared to:

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) | Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) | Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV)

Key takeaways
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Gilead Sciences appears undervalued based on its strong financial performance, robust product portfolio, and growth prospects, particularly in HIV and oncology. The company's valuation multiples (EV/EBITDA and EV/Sales) are significantly below industry averages, despite above-average profitability metrics (ROA, ROE, ROIC). While risks such as Medicare Part D reform and legal challenges exist, the potential upside from the lenacapavir launch and oncology expansion is not fully reflected in the current valuation.

  • Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) is a leading biopharmaceutical company with a strong financial position, a robust pipeline, and a commitment to innovation.
  • The company's HIV franchise remains a key driver of revenue growth, and the successful launch of Livdelzi has added momentum to its liver disease portfolio.
  • Gilead's operational efficiency is strong, with a healthy working capital position and a strong track record of returning capital to shareholders.
  • The company's growth opportunities are significant, driven by the launch of lenacapavir for PrEP, the continued expansion of Trodelvy and the cell therapy portfolio, and the further development of its HIV pipeline.
  • Gilead faces several risks and threats, including reliance on key products, competition, pricing pressures, regulatory challenges, and integration and execution risks associated with acquisitions.
  • The impact of Medicare Part D reform on its HIV business could also pose a challenge in the short term.
  • Gilead's valuation is currently below industry averages, suggesting that the company may be undervalued.
  • The company's future outlook is positive, driven by the successful launch of lenacapavir for PrEP, continued growth in its HIV franchise, and the expansion of its oncology portfolio.
Evaluation summary
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  1. Company Overview:

    • Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) is a leading biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing innovative medicines for unmet medical needs. The company's primary areas of focus include human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), liver diseases, hematology, oncology, and inflammation and respiratory diseases.
    • Gilead's revenue is generated from a diverse portfolio of marketed products, with its HIV franchise being a significant contributor. Other key revenue drivers include its hepatitis treatments, oncology therapies, and COVID-19 treatment (Veklury).
    • The company operates in over 35 countries worldwide, with a global commercial sales and distribution network.
    • Gilead's key competitors include other large pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, as well as specialized firms and generic drug manufacturers.
    • For comparative analysis, we will be using Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) as a benchmark and Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) and Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) as industry peers.
  2. Financial Performance:

    • Gilead's revenue has been growing steadily over the past few years, driven by the strong performance of its HIV franchise and the successful launch of new products. In Q4 2024, revenue reached $7.57 billion, a 13% increase year-over-year. For FY2024, total product sales (excluding Veklury) reached $26.8 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year.
    • Gilead's profitability has been strong, with a healthy operating margin and a growing net income. The company's non-GAAP operating margin was 30% for FY2024 (43% excluding CymaBay acquisition).
    • Gilead's ROA, ROE, and ROIC have been consistently above industry averages, indicating strong profitability and efficient asset utilization. In 2024, ROA was 0.79, ROE was 2.28, and ROIC was 0.30, compared to industry averages of -63.44, -154.36, and -134.14, respectively.
    • The impact of Medicare Part D reform on its HIV business could lead to a slight decrease in profitability in the short term, but management expects underlying growth to continue.
  3. Operational Efficiency:

    • Gilead's balance sheet analysis reveals a strong cash position and increasing working capital, suggesting a healthy short-term financial position. The company's cash and short-term investments increased from $6.06 billion in Q1 2024 to $9.99 billion in Q4 2024.
    • Gilead's working capital has been increasing, indicating a healthy short-term financial position. In Q4 2024, working capital was $5.99 billion, compared to $1.03 billion in Q1 2024.
    • Gilead's operating cash flow has been relatively stable over the past few years, indicating that the company's core business operations are generating sufficient cash flow to support its growth initiatives. In Q4 2024, net operating cash flow was $2.97 billion.
    • Gilead's free cash flow has been strong, indicating the company's ability to generate cash flow after accounting for capital expenditures. In Q4 2024, free cash flow was $4.17 billion.
    • Gilead's capital expenditures have been relatively low, indicating a focus on efficient asset utilization. In Q4 2024, total capital expenditure was $141 million.
    • Gilead has a strong track record of returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. In Q4 2024, the company paid $983 million in cash dividends.
    • Gilead's liquidity ratios are strong, indicating a healthy short-term financial position. In Q4 2024, the current ratio was 1.5 and the quick ratio was 1.2.
    • Gilead's debt-to-equity and leverage ratios have been declining, indicating a commitment to reducing debt obligations and maintaining a healthy financial structure. In Q4 2024, the total debt to total equity ratio was 125.84 and the debt/EBITDA ratio was 1.74.
  4. Growth Opportunities:

    • Gilead is actively pursuing strategic acquisitions to expand its product portfolio. The acquisition of CymaBay Therapeutics, Inc. and its lead product candidate seladelpar for the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis is a notable example.
    • Gilead's R&D pipeline is robust, with 54 ongoing clinical programs across HIV, oncology, and inflammation. The company is investing heavily in R&D, with R&D expenses remaining roughly flat in 2025.
    • Gilead is expanding its geographic reach, with a particular focus on emerging markets. The company is actively working to expand access to lenacapavir globally, including through the EU Medicines for all initiative.
    • Gilead's current strategic focus areas include the launch of lenacapavir for PrEP, the continued expansion of Trodelvy and the cell therapy portfolio, and the further development of its HIV pipeline.
    • Gilead is making progress on previously announced initiatives, such as the successful launch of Livdelzi in PBC and the continued expansion of access to CAR-T therapies in community oncology practices.
    • Gilead's capital allocation strategies are aligned with its growth objectives, with a focus on investing in R&D, acquisitions, and returning capital to shareholders.
  5. Recent Developments and Market Sentiment:

    • Recent news indicates that Gilead is facing legal and regulatory challenges, including patent disputes, product liability lawsuits, and government investigations. These challenges pose material risks that could impact the company's financial performance and reputation.
    • The market sentiment towards Gilead is generally positive, with analysts recognizing the company's strong financial position, robust pipeline, and commitment to innovation. However, concerns remain regarding the impact of Medicare Part D reform on its HIV business and the competitive landscape in the cell therapy market.
  6. Risks and Threats:

    • Gilead's reliance on key products, such as HIV and COVID-19 treatments, could face competition or changing market dynamics.
    • The impact of Medicare Part D reform on its HIV business could lead to a decrease in revenue and profitability in the short term.
    • The company's acquisition strategy could lead to integration and execution risks.
    • Legal and regulatory challenges, including patent disputes, product liability lawsuits, and government investigations, pose material risks that could impact the company's financial performance and reputation.
    • The company's manufacturing difficulties, supply chain disruptions, and reliance on third-party suppliers could impact its operations.
  7. Valuation Analysis:

    • Gilead's EV/EBITDA and EV/Sales ratios are currently below industry averages, suggesting that the company may be undervalued. In Q4 2024, Gilead's EV/EBITDA was 9.11 and its EV/Sales was 4.30, compared to industry averages of 68.43 and 127.24, respectively.
    • Potential catalysts for Gilead's valuation include the successful launch of lenacapavir for PrEP, continued growth in its HIV franchise, and the expansion of its oncology portfolio.
  8. Price Performance:

    • Gilead's stock price has been relatively stable over the past year, with a slight upward trend. The stock price closed at $96.14 on February 11, 2025, up from $93.40 on December 23, 2024.
    • Gilead has consistently outperformed its benchmark, Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV), over all the listed periods. However, it has also been more volatile than its benchmark, with larger drawdowns and a lower Sharpe Ratio.
    • Gilead has consistently outperformed Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) across all historical periods, demonstrating a significantly stronger performance track record. However, Gilead's performance has been mixed against Amgen, Inc. (AMGN), outperforming in most periods but underperforming in the 2-year and YTD periods.
  9. Future Outlook:

    • Gilead's management has provided guidance for FY2025, projecting total product sales of approximately $28.2 billion to $28.6 billion. Excluding Veklury, this is approximately $26.8 billion to $27.2 billion.
    • Analyst estimates for Gilead's stock price are generally positive, with a consensus price target of $110.00.
    • The successful launch of lenacapavir for PrEP, continued growth in its HIV franchise, and the expansion of its oncology portfolio are expected to drive Gilead's future performance. However, the impact of Medicare Part D reform on its HIV business and the competitive landscape in the cell therapy market could pose challenges.
  10. Summary:

    • Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) is a leading biopharmaceutical company with a strong financial position, a robust pipeline, and a commitment to innovation. The company's HIV franchise remains a key driver of revenue growth, and the successful launch of Livdelzi has added momentum to its liver disease portfolio.
    • Gilead's operational efficiency is strong, with a healthy working capital position and a strong track record of returning capital to shareholders. The company's debt-to-equity and leverage ratios have been declining, indicating a commitment to reducing debt obligations and maintaining a healthy financial structure.
    • Gilead's growth opportunities are significant, driven by the launch of lenacapavir for PrEP, the continued expansion of Trodelvy and the cell therapy portfolio, and the further development of its HIV pipeline. The company is also expanding its geographic reach, with a particular focus on emerging markets.
    • Gilead faces several risks and threats, including reliance on key products, competition, pricing pressures, regulatory challenges, and integration and execution risks associated with acquisitions. The impact of Medicare Part D reform on its HIV business could also pose a challenge in the short term.
    • Gilead's valuation is currently below industry averages, suggesting that the company may be undervalued. Potential catalysts for Gilead's valuation include the successful launch of lenacapavir for PrEP, continued growth in its HIV franchise, and the expansion of its oncology portfolio.
    • Gilead's stock price has been relatively stable over the past year, with a slight upward trend. The company has consistently outperformed its benchmark, Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV), over all the listed periods. However, it has also been more volatile than its benchmark, with larger drawdowns and a lower Sharpe Ratio.
    • Gilead's future outlook is positive, driven by the successful launch of lenacapavir for PrEP, continued growth in its HIV franchise, and the expansion of its oncology portfolio. However, the impact of Medicare Part D reform on its HIV business and the competitive landscape in the cell therapy market could pose challenges.
    • Overall, Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) presents a compelling investment case with its strong financial position, robust pipeline, and commitment to innovation. The company's growth opportunities are significant, but investors should be aware of the risks and threats associated with the business.
Price history
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Fundamentals
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Insights
  • Gilead Sciences is a leading biopharmaceutical company with a diverse portfolio of innovative medicines, particularly in the areas of HIV, viral hepatitis, COVID-19, and oncology.
  • The company's revenue growth is driven by the strong performance of its HIV franchise and the successful launch of new products, such as Livdelzi.
  • Gilead's profitability has been strong, with a healthy operating margin and a growing net income.
  • The company's strong cash position and increasing working capital suggest a healthy short-term financial position.
  • Gilead's strong free cash flow generation and its commitment to reducing debt obligations suggest a solid long-term solvency position.
  • The impact of Medicare Part D reform on its HIV business could be a short-term headwind, but the company's underlying growth is expected to continue.
  • Gilead's future outlook is positive, driven by the continued growth of its HIV franchise, the successful launch of lenacapavir for PrEP, and the expansion of its oncology portfolio.
  • The company's strong financial position and its commitment to innovation provide it with the financial flexibility to pursue future growth opportunities.
  • Key risks include reliance on key products, competition, pricing pressures, regulatory challenges, and integration and execution risks associated with acquisitions.
Analysis
  • Revenue - Gilead's revenue has been growing steadily over the past few years, driven by the strong performance of its HIV franchise and the successful launch of new products, such as Livdelzi. - The company's diverse product portfolio and its focus on innovation are key drivers of its revenue growth. - The anticipated launch of lenacapavir for PrEP is expected to further boost revenue growth in the coming years.
    • Profitability
      • Gilead's profitability has been strong, with a healthy operating margin and a growing net income.
      • The company's focus on innovation and its ability to manage its costs effectively are key drivers of its profitability.
      • The impact of Medicare Part D reform on its HIV business could lead to a slight decrease in profitability in the short term.
    • Liquidity
      • Gilead's strong cash position and increasing working capital suggest a healthy short-term financial position.
      • The company has ample resources to meet its current obligations and fund its operations.
    • Solvency
      • Gilead's strong free cash flow generation and its commitment to reducing debt obligations suggest a solid long-term solvency position.
      • The company appears to be managing its financial leverage effectively and maintaining a healthy financial structure.
    • Operational Efficiency
      • Gilead is improving its working capital management efficiency, as evidenced by the decrease in accounts receivable and the increase in inventories.
      • The company's focus on cost control and its strategy to leverage existing infrastructure are contributing to its operational efficiency.
    • Cash Flow Analysis
      • Gilead's operating cash flow has been relatively stable over the past few years, indicating that the company's core business operations are generating sufficient cash flow to support its growth initiatives.
      • The company's investing activities have been characterized by significant investments in acquisitions, suggesting that Gilead is actively pursuing strategic acquisitions to expand its product portfolio.
      • Gilead's financing activities have been driven by a combination of debt issuance and repayment, share repurchases, and dividend payments. The company appears to be managing its debt obligations effectively and returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
    • Risk Factors
      • Gilead's reliance on key products, such as HIV and COVID-19 treatments, could face competition or changing market dynamics.
      • The impact of Medicare Part D reform on its HIV business could lead to a decrease in revenue and profitability in the short term.
      • The company's acquisition strategy could lead to integration and execution risks.
      • Legal and regulatory challenges, including patent disputes, product liability lawsuits, and government investigations, pose material risks that could impact the company's financial performance and reputation.
    • Future Outlook
      • Gilead's future outlook is positive, driven by the continued growth of its HIV franchise, the successful launch of lenacapavir for PrEP, and the expansion of its oncology portfolio.
      • The company's strong financial position and its commitment to innovation provide it with the financial flexibility to pursue future growth opportunities.
      • The impact of Medicare Part D reform on its HIV business could be a short-term headwind, but the company's underlying growth is expected to continue.
Financial statements
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Public filings
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  • Gilead Sciences is a leading biopharmaceutical company with a diverse portfolio of innovative medicines, particularly in the areas of HIV, viral hepatitis, COVID-19, and oncology.
  • The company faces significant competition, pricing pressures, and regulatory risks in its core markets, requiring ongoing investment in R&D and commercial capabilities to maintain its competitive position.
  • Gilead has been actively expanding its pipeline and capabilities through strategic collaborations, licensing deals, and targeted acquisitions, though integration and execution risks remain.
  • Legal and regulatory challenges, including patent disputes, product liability lawsuits, and government investigations, pose material risks that could impact the company's financial performance and reputation.
  • Management has maintained a strong financial position, with disciplined capital allocation to support growth initiatives, dividends, and share repurchases, though the company's leverage and reliance on key products warrant close monitoring.
  • Overall, Gilead appears to be navigating a complex operating environment, but faces significant headwinds and risks that will require careful execution and strategic positioning to overcome in the coming years.
  • Core Business and Operations:

    • Gilead Sciences, Inc. is a leading biopharmaceutical company focused on innovative medicines for viral diseases, oncology, and inflammation, with a diverse portfolio of marketed products and a robust pipeline.
    • Key products include HIV treatments (Biktarvy, Genvoya, Descovy), COVID-19 treatment (Veklury), hepatitis treatments (Epclusa, Vemlidy, Harvoni), and oncology therapies (Yescarta, Tecartus, Trodelvy).
    • Gilead operates in over 35 countries worldwide, with a global commercial sales and distribution network.
    • Major competitors include other large pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, as well as specialized firms and generic drug manufacturers.
  • Industry and Market Trends:

    • The pharmaceutical industry is highly regulated, with complex approval processes and ongoing compliance requirements for marketed products.
    • Pricing and reimbursement pressures from government agencies, private payers, and cost containment measures in various countries pose challenges.
    • Evolving laws and regulations related to healthcare fraud and abuse, data privacy, and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) matters impact Gilead's operations.
    • The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted global supply chains and demand patterns, with uncertain long-term impacts on Gilead's Veklury product.
  • Recent Events:

    • Acquired CymaBay Therapeutics, Inc. and its lead product candidate seladelpar for the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis.
    • Entered into various R&D collaborations and licensing agreements to expand the pipeline, including with Arcus Biosciences, Merus N.V., and Xilio Therapeutics.
    • Received regulatory approvals to expand the indications for several existing products, including Biktarvy, Vemlidy, and Yescarta.
    • Discontinued further development of magrolimab in hematologic cancers following unfavorable study results.
  • Risk Factors:

    • Reliance on key products, such as HIV and COVID-19 treatments, which could face competition or changing market dynamics.
    • Challenges in accurately forecasting demand and managing inventory levels for its products.
    • Risks associated with developing and commercializing novel cell therapy products like Yescarta and Tecartus.
    • Exposure to foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate changes.
    • Potential liabilities from product liability lawsuits, government investigations, and other legal proceedings.
    • Ability to obtain and defend patents and other intellectual property rights, and avoid infringing on third-party rights.
    • Risks related to manufacturing difficulties, supply chain disruptions, and reliance on third-party suppliers.
    • Potential impact of climate change and natural disasters on operations and facilities.
  • Legal Matters:

    • Ongoing litigation related to patents covering pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention and challenges to patents protecting certain Gilead products from generic competition.
    • Class action lawsuits alleging anticompetitive conduct in the HIV drug market, with Gilead reaching a $525 million settlement with direct purchasers and retailer plaintiffs.
    • Product liability lawsuits related to certain HIV products and ongoing government investigations into Gilead's promotional practices.
  • Management's Discussion and Analysis:

    • Total revenues decreased 1% in 2023 compared to 2022, driven by lower Veklury sales offset by growth in HIV and oncology products.
    • Gross margins remained strong at 75.9% in 2023, despite higher intangible asset amortization and manufacturing restructuring costs.
    • R&D expenses increased due to higher clinical trial activities, while SG&A expenses decreased due to the 2023 legal settlement.
    • Gilead maintained a strong liquidity position, with $8.4 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of December 31, 2023.
    • The company continued to return capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
Earnings calls
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Earnings Report 2024Q4 (2025-02-11)

Key takeaways
  1. Strong HIV franchise remains a core strength: Despite the anticipated impact of Medicare Part D reform, Gilead's HIV business continues to demonstrate robust underlying demand, positioning it for future growth with lenacapavir.
  2. Successful Livdelzi launch adds momentum: The exceeding expectations of Livdelzi's launch provides a significant boost to the liver disease portfolio and demonstrates Gilead's ability to successfully launch new products.
  3. Oncology portfolio holds promise, but faces competition: While Trodelvy shows promise, the oncology market is highly competitive, and the success of anito-cel and other pipeline assets will depend on clinical trial outcomes and market dynamics.
  4. Medicare Part D reform presents a short-term headwind: The impact of Medicare Part D reform on 2025 revenue is a significant factor to consider, but it's a temporary headwind, and management expects underlying growth to continue.
  5. Robust pipeline provides long-term growth potential: Gilead's diverse and robust pipeline across HIV, oncology, and inflammation offers significant opportunities for future growth, mitigating the risk associated with patent expirations.
  6. Cost management remains a priority: Gilead's commitment to disciplined expense management positions it to deliver strong profitability and returns to shareholders.
  7. Lenacapavir for PrEP launch is a key catalyst: The successful launch of lenacapavir for PrEP is crucial for maintaining Gilead's leadership in the HIV market and driving future growth.
Focus of management’s prepared remarks
  • Strong FY2024 and Q4 2024 Financial Performance: Total product sales (excluding Veklury) increased 8% year-over-year to $26.8 billion for FY2024 and 13% year-over-year to $7.2 billion in Q4 2024. HIV sales significantly exceeded expectations, growing 8% year-over-year to $19.6 billion for the full year.
  • HIV Business Growth and Lenacapavir: The HIV business demonstrated consistent strong growth (5% in 2022, 6% in 2023, and 8% in 2024), driven by Biktarvy and Descovy. Lenacapavir, a first-in-class capsid inhibitor, is a key driver for future growth, with filings for PrEP approval completed in the U.S. and Europe. The company anticipates up to seven new HIV treatment options and two prevention options by 2033.
  • Livdelzi Launch and Inflammation Pipeline: Livdelzi's strong U.S. launch (approximately $30 million in Q4 2024 sales) and positive CHMP recommendation in Europe highlight the potential of the liver portfolio. The company is also advancing its inflammation pipeline, including the STAT6 program acquisition.
  • Oncology Portfolio Progress: Continued progress in expanding access to cell therapies and promising results from the anito-cel Phase 2 trial were highlighted. Trodelvy remains a key driver of oncology growth, with ongoing Phase 3 trials and potential expansion into new indications.
  • New Chief Medical Officer and Robust Pipeline: The appointment of Dietmar Berger as Chief Medical Officer was announced, emphasizing his experience and the strength of Gilead's 54 ongoing clinical programs.
  • 2025 Guidance and Headwinds: FY2025 guidance includes the anticipated impact of Medicare Part D reform ($1.1 billion revenue impact, $900 million in HIV), lower Veklury sales, and FX headwinds. Despite these headwinds, management expressed confidence in the underlying strength of the business.
Focus of the analyst Q&A
  • Lenacapavir's Role in HIV Treatment and Lifecycle Management of Biktarvy: Analysts inquired about the potential for lenacapavir-based treatment options to replace Biktarvy and the company's lifecycle management strategy for Biktarvy prior to its loss of exclusivity.
  • Lenacapavir for PrEP Revenue Guidance and Margin Expansion: Analysts sought clarification on the inclusion of lenacapavir for PrEP in the 2025 revenue guidance and inquired about the sustainability of margin expansion into 2026.
  • Lenacapavir for PrEP Launch Dynamics and Consensus Expectations: Analysts expressed concerns about potential overestimation of lenacapavir's initial performance and requested insights into the launch ramp dynamics and comparable launches.
  • Anito-cel Immunogenicity Data: Analysts requested detailed information on the immunogenicity data from the anito-cel iMMagine-1 trial, specifically focusing on the characteristics of observed cases of ICANS.
  • Lenacapavir for PrEP FDA and HHS Interactions and European Reimbursement: Analysts sought updates on interactions with the FDA and HHS regarding lenacapavir for PrEP approval and inquired about the outlook for European reimbursement.
  • Competitiveness of the Late-Stage Oncology Portfolio: Analysts asked for management's assessment of the competitiveness of the late-stage oncology portfolio, particularly regarding TIGIT, domvanalimab, and Trodelvy.
  • HIV Sales Growth and Inventory Dynamics: Analysts sought clarification on the contribution of inventory dynamics to the reported HIV sales growth.
  • Livdelzi Use Patterns and Trajectory: Analysts requested more details on Livdelzi's use patterns, prescriber base, and patient types, as well as qualitative insights into its future trajectory.
  • PrEP Market Growth Drivers: Analysts inquired about the factors driving the significant acceleration in PrEP market growth in 2024 and their potential impact on lenacapavir's launch.
  • Livdelzi IDEAL Study Enrollment and Potential Label Expansion: Analysts sought updates on the enrollment progress of the Livdelzi IDEAL study and its implications for potential label expansion and the size of the eligible patient population.
  • Trodelvy's Position in Small Cell Lung Cancer: Analysts asked for management's perspective on Trodelvy's competitive position in small cell lung cancer relative to other targets being pursued in this space.
Summary
  1. Financial Performance

Gilead Sciences reported strong Q4 and FY2024 results, exceeding expectations in several areas. Total product sales (excluding Veklury) reached $7.2 billion in Q4 2024, a 13% year-over-year increase, and $26.8 billion for the full year, an 8% increase. HIV sales were particularly strong, growing 8% year-over-year to $19.6 billion for the full year, significantly exceeding the projected 5% growth. Oncology sales increased 12% year-over-year to $3.3 billion, driven by Trodelvy. Liver disease sales grew 9% to $3 billion. Non-GAAP EPS for FY2024 was $4.62, impacted by the CymaBay acquisition; excluding this, it would have been $7.75, a 15% increase. Q4 2024 non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.90, compared to $1.72 in Q4 2023. Veklury sales declined significantly due to lower COVID-19 hospitalizations.

  1. Revenue Drivers

Strong HIV sales, driven by Biktarvy (13% growth) and Descovy (21% growth), were the primary revenue driver. Biktarvy maintains over 50% market share in the U.S. Growth in oncology (primarily Trodelvy, 24% year-over-year growth) and liver disease (driven by Livdelzi launch and increased demand for HBV and HDV products) also contributed significantly. The successful launch of Livdelzi in PBC, exceeding initial expectations, is a key positive. However, Veklury sales declined substantially due to reduced COVID-19 hospitalizations. The anticipated impact of Medicare Part D reform is expected to temporarily mask HIV revenue growth in 2025.

  1. Profit Margins and Cost Management

Gilead demonstrated strong cost discipline in 2024. Full-year non-GAAP operating margin was 30% (43% excluding CymaBay acquisition). R&D expenses were flat year-over-year, while SG&A was down 3%. The company expects to maintain expense discipline in 2025, with R&D remaining roughly flat and SG&A declining by a high-single digit percentage. Product gross margin was approximately 87% in Q4 2024. Management highlighted a commitment to operating expense discipline, aiming to leverage the model's profitability.

  1. Guidance and Outlook

Gilead provided guidance for FY2025, projecting total product sales of approximately $28.2 billion to $28.6 billion. Excluding Veklury, this is approximately $26.8 billion to $27.2 billion. Veklury sales are expected to be around $1.4 billion. The guidance incorporates a $1.1 billion negative impact from Medicare Part D reform ($900 million in HIV), a $400 million decrease in Veklury sales, and a $250 million headwind from FX. Excluding these factors, the company expects 5% to 6% revenue growth. The company expects HIV revenue to be roughly flat in 2025 due to the Medicare Part D reform, masking underlying volume growth. First-quarter 2025 HIV revenue is expected to decline in the mid-teen percentage range compared to Q4 2024.

  1. Strategic Initiatives

Key strategic initiatives include the launch of lenacapavir for PrEP, expected mid-year 2025, and the continued expansion of Trodelvy and the cell therapy portfolio. Gilead is actively working to expand access to lenacapavir globally, including through the EU Medicines for all initiative. The company is also focused on addressing competitive headwinds in the cell therapy market and expanding access to CAR-T therapies in community oncology practices. Further development of the HIV pipeline, aiming for up to seven new treatment options and two prevention options by 2033, is a major focus. The company highlighted the progress of anito-cel, targeting commercial launch in 2026.

  1. Management Commentary

Management expressed strong confidence in Gilead's performance and future prospects. They highlighted the consistent growth of the HIV business, the successful launch of Livdelzi, and the promising pipeline in oncology and inflammation. The impact of Medicare Part D reform on 2025 revenue was acknowledged, but management emphasized that this is a temporary effect and that underlying demand remains strong. The overall tone was positive and optimistic, emphasizing the company's robust pipeline and long-term growth potential.

  1. Industry and Market Conditions

Gilead noted continued growth in the HIV treatment market (approximately 3% in 2024) and accelerated growth in the PrEP market (16% in Q4 2024). The company acknowledged competitive headwinds in the cell therapy market. The impact of the new Medicare Part D model was a significant factor influencing the company's 2025 guidance. The company anticipates continued strong demand for its HIV products despite the Medicare Part D reform.

Comparative analysis
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Benchmarks (as of 2025-02-12)
Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV)
  • Performance Comparison: Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) has consistently outperformed Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) over all the listed periods. This suggests that GILD has been a strong performer in the healthcare sector.
  • Risk and Return Analysis: Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) has provided higher annualized returns than Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) over the past three years. However, GILD has also been more volatile than XLV, as evidenced by its higher annualized volatility and larger drawdowns.
  • Risk-Adjusted Performance: Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) has generally had a lower Sharpe Ratio than Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV), indicating that XLV has offered a better risk-adjusted return over the period. GILD's lower beta suggests a lower risk profile compared to XLV.
  • Overall Assessment: Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) has been a strong performer in the healthcare sector, consistently outperforming its benchmark. However, it has also been more volatile than its benchmark, with larger drawdowns and a lower Sharpe Ratio. This suggests that GILD may be a higher-risk investment than XLV. Investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and investment goals before investing in GILD.
Peers Price History(as of 2025-02-12)
  • Performance Comparison: Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) has consistently outperformed Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) across all historical periods, demonstrating a significantly stronger performance track record. However, GILD has shown mixed performance against Amgen, Inc. (AMGN), outperforming in most periods but underperforming in the 2-year and YTD periods. This suggests that GILD's performance is more volatile compared to AMGN.
  • Risk and Return Analysis: Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) has delivered higher annualized returns than Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) across all periods, indicating a stronger ability to generate returns. However, GILD's annualized returns have been slightly lower than Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) in the 2-year period. In terms of volatility, GILD has consistently shown lower annualized volatility compared to both MRNA and AMGN, suggesting a more stable and less risky investment. This is further supported by the drawdown figures, where GILD has experienced a significantly lower maximum drawdown compared to MRNA, indicating a lower risk profile.
  • Risk-Adjusted Performance: Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) has generally shown a lower Sharpe Ratio compared to Amgen, Inc. (AMGN), indicating that AMGN has delivered better risk-adjusted returns. However, GILD has outperformed MRNA in terms of risk-adjusted returns, suggesting that GILD's lower volatility has contributed to a more favorable risk-return profile compared to MRNA. GILD's beta value consistently below 1 indicates a lower sensitivity to market movements compared to MRNA and AMGN, further supporting its lower risk profile.
  • Overall Assessment: Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) presents a compelling investment case with its consistent outperformance against Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) and its lower risk profile compared to both peer companies. While GILD's returns have been slightly lower than Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) in the 2-year period, its lower volatility and risk profile make it a more attractive option for investors seeking a more stable and less risky investment. However, it's important to note that GILD's performance has been more volatile compared to AMGN, suggesting that investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and investment objectives before making any investment decisions.
Peers Fundamentals(as of 2024-12-31)
  1. Market Position and Size:

    • Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of 134,161 million, significantly larger than Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) but slightly smaller than Amgen, Inc. (AMGN). This indicates a larger scale of operations and potentially greater market influence.
    • GILD's market cap is significantly larger than its revenue, indicating a premium valuation, potentially attributed to factors such as strong brand recognition, a robust product pipeline, and a history of profitability.
  2. Profitability and Efficiency:

    • GILD exhibits significantly higher profitability than its peers and the industry average, with strong Gross Profit Margin, EBITDA Margin, and Net Profit Margin. This suggests a highly efficient and profitable business model.
    • GILD's Return on Average Assets, Return on Average Total Equity, Return on Average Total Capital, and Return On Average Invested Capital are significantly higher than its peers and the industry average, indicating high efficiency in generating returns from its assets, equity, total capital, and invested capital.
  3. Financial Health and Stability:

    • GILD's liquidity position is moderate compared to its peers and the industry average, with a Current Ratio and Quick Ratio indicating its ability to meet short-term obligations.
    • GILD's debt position is not available, but AMGN's high debt levels relative to equity raise concerns about financial stability.
  4. Valuation and Market Perception:

    • GILD's valuation metrics suggest a premium valuation compared to its peers and the industry average, potentially attributed to factors such as strong brand recognition, a robust product pipeline, and a history of profitability.
    • The market perceives GILD as a highly valued company, as indicated by its high Price To Earnings and Price to Book Ratio.
  5. Cash Flow and Capital Management:

    • GILD generates significant cash flow from its operations, demonstrating its ability to convert earnings into cash and potentially distribute it to shareholders.
    • GILD's capital allocation strategies are not available, but AMGN's low capital expenditure suggests a focus on maintaining existing operations rather than significant expansion.
  6. Growth and Future Prospect:

    • GILD's growth trends are mixed, with strong growth in EBITDA but decelerating growth in revenue, net income, and earnings per share. This suggests that GILD's growth is not balanced across different metrics and is concentrated in specific areas.
    • GILD's growth trends suggest that its competitive position is facing challenges, with potential challenges in its core markets or a need to diversify its product portfolio.
  7. Potential for Investment:

    • GILD's investment attractiveness is mixed. Its strong profitability, efficient cash flow generation, and large market capitalization are attractive features. However, its declining revenue growth, volatile net income and earnings per share, and high valuation raise concerns about its future prospects.
  8. Key Risks and Considerations:

    • GILD's declining revenue growth and volatile net income and earnings per share suggest potential challenges in its core markets or a need to diversify its product portfolio.
    • GILD's high valuation could make it vulnerable to market corrections or changes in investor sentiment.
    • AMGN's high debt levels relative to equity raise concerns about financial stability.
  9. Overall Assessment:

    • Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) is a large-cap company with a strong financial position, characterized by high profitability, efficient cash flow generation, and a large market capitalization. However, its declining revenue growth, volatile net income and earnings per share, and high valuation raise concerns about its future prospects. Investors should carefully consider these factors before making any investment decisions.
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