Thematic evaluation
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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

October 17, 2024

Compared to: Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) | AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) | Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV)

Our reasoning

Johnson & Johnson appears moderately undervalued based on its strong financial performance, diversified portfolio, and growth prospects, which are not fully reflected in its current valuation multiples. The company's P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios are significantly below industry averages, suggesting the market is overly discounting its potential due to legal risks and competitive pressures. However, JNJ's robust R&D pipeline, strategic acquisitions, and consistent operational execution provide substantial upside potential that is not adequately priced in.

Key takeaways
  • JNJ is a diversified healthcare conglomerate with leading positions in pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and consumer health products, though it recently divested the consumer health business.
  • The company faces significant legal and regulatory risks, particularly related to talc-containing products and opioid marketing, which have resulted in substantial charges and could continue to impact financial performance.
  • Innovation, patent protection, and managing pricing pressures are critical to maintaining growth in the Innovative Medicine segment, which accounts for the majority of revenue and profits.
  • The MedTech business provides diversification, but is also subject to competitive dynamics, supply chain challenges, and integration risks from acquisitions like Shockwave Medical.
  • Strong liquidity, continued R&D investment, and shareholder returns through dividends suggest the company is well-positioned to navigate the industry's complexities, though legal/regulatory risks remain an overhang.
  • JNJ's valuation is relatively lower than its peers, reflecting the challenges it faces in managing its legal and regulatory risks.
  • JNJ's stock price has shown mixed performance, underperforming its benchmark and peers over longer periods. However, the stock has outperformed its peers in the short term, suggesting that investors may be optimistic about the company's future prospects.
  • JNJ's future performance will depend on its ability to successfully navigate the competitive and regulatory landscape, manage its legal and regulatory risks, and continue to invest in innovation and growth.
Undervalued

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Evaluation summary
  1. Company Overview:

    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is a global healthcare conglomerate operating in two main segments: Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment focuses on developing and commercializing pharmaceuticals across various therapeutic areas, while the MedTech segment offers a diverse range of medical devices, including orthopaedics, surgery, interventional solutions, and vision care. JNJ's products are sold to a wide range of customers, including retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, and healthcare professionals.
    • JNJ's revenue is primarily driven by its Innovative Medicine segment, which includes key products like STELARA, REMICADE, DARZALEX, XARELTO, and SPRAVATO. The MedTech segment contributes significantly to revenue and growth, with notable products like Impella heart devices, ACUVUE contact lenses, and TECNIS intraocular lenses.
    • JNJ operates in a highly competitive and regulated industry, facing challenges from pricing pressures, government regulation, and competition from generic and biosimilar products. The company's global operations expose it to economic and currency fluctuations, as well as supply chain and manufacturing disruptions.
    • For comparative analysis, we will be using the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) as a benchmark and Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) and AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) as industry peers.
  2. Financial Performance:

    • JNJ has demonstrated consistent revenue growth in recent quarters, driven by strong performance in both the Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments. However, profitability has been declining due to increased operating expenses and non-recurring charges, particularly related to legal settlements and acquisitions.
    • The company's gross margin has been increasing, indicating improved cost management or a shift in product mix. However, the overall profitability margins have been impacted by the aforementioned charges.
    • JNJ's return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and return on invested capital (ROIC) have been declining in recent quarters, reflecting the impact of increased expenses and charges on profitability.
    • Compared to its peers, JNJ has shown mixed performance. While it has outperformed MRK in the short term, it has consistently underperformed both MRK and AZN over longer periods. This suggests that JNJ might be facing challenges in maintaining its competitive edge in the long run.
  3. Operational Efficiency:

    • JNJ's asset utilization efficiency appears to be improving, as evidenced by the decline in accounts receivable and inventories. This suggests that the company is effectively managing its working capital and optimizing its asset base.
    • The company's capital expenditure efficiency appears to be relatively stable, with investments in R&D and acquisitions driving growth. However, the recent increase in debt suggests a potential increase in leverage, which could impact future financial flexibility.
    • JNJ's cash flows from operating activities have been relatively stable in recent quarters, indicating a consistent ability to generate cash from core business operations. The company's free cash flow is expected to remain strong, supporting debt repayment capacity, dividend growth potential, and investment in organic growth opportunities.
    • JNJ's cash flows from investing activities have been volatile, driven by significant acquisitions and investments in R&D. The company's cash flows from financing activities have also been volatile, reflecting the company's debt issuance and share repurchase activities.
    • JNJ's short-term liquidity position appears to be strong, with a healthy level of operating cash flow. However, the recent decline in cash and short-term investments suggests a potential shift in investment strategy or a reduction in liquidity.
    • JNJ's long-term solvency appears to be strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio and a healthy level of equity. However, the recent increase in debt suggests a potential increase in leverage, which could impact future financial flexibility.
    • Compared to its peers, JNJ appears to be a less volatile investment with a lower risk profile. However, this comes at the cost of lower returns. While JNJ has shown strong short-term performance, its long-term performance has lagged behind its peers.
  4. Growth Opportunities:

    • JNJ is pursuing a high-innovation, high-growth strategy, focusing on expanding its portfolio of innovative pharmaceuticals and medical devices. The company is actively investing in R&D and pursuing strategic acquisitions to strengthen its position in key therapeutic areas and medical device categories.
    • The company has completed several acquisitions in recent years, including Shockwave Medical, V-Wave, and NM26 bispecific antibody, to strengthen its high-innovation, high-growth portfolio. These acquisitions have expanded JNJ's presence in areas like cardiovascular disease and oncology.
    • JNJ's R&D pipeline is robust, with several promising candidates in various stages of development. The company is also exploring new technologies and therapeutic approaches, such as gene therapy and cell therapy, to drive future growth.
    • JNJ is expanding its geographic reach, particularly in emerging markets with high growth potential. The company is also exploring new market segments and applications for its existing products.
    • JNJ's capital allocation strategy is focused on investing in R&D, acquisitions, and shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases. The company has a history of returning significant capital to shareholders, demonstrating its commitment to shareholder value creation.
  5. Risks and Threats:

    • JNJ faces significant legal and regulatory risks, particularly related to talc-containing products and opioid marketing, which have resulted in substantial charges and could continue to impact financial performance.
    • The company's recent increase in debt could impact its future financial flexibility.
    • JNJ's reliance on global supply chains and potential manufacturing disruptions could impact its operations and financial performance.
    • The company faces intense competition from generic and biosimilar drug manufacturers, which could erode market share and profitability.
    • JNJ's operations are subject to a complex and evolving regulatory environment, which could lead to increased costs, delays, and restrictions.
  6. Valuation Analysis:

    • JNJ's valuation metrics, such as price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio, are generally in line with its peers. However, the company's valuation has been impacted by the recent decline in profitability and the ongoing legal and regulatory risks.
    • Compared to its peers, JNJ's valuation is relatively lower, reflecting the challenges it faces in maintaining its competitive edge and managing its legal and regulatory risks.
    • Potential catalysts for JNJ's valuation include successful product launches, positive clinical trial results, and resolution of the ongoing legal and regulatory issues.
  7. Price Performance:

    • JNJ's stock price has shown mixed performance in recent years, underperforming its benchmark and peers over longer periods. However, the stock has outperformed its peers in the short term, suggesting that investors may be optimistic about the company's future prospects.
    • JNJ's stock price has been less volatile than its benchmark and peers, indicating a lower risk profile. However, the company's lower returns have also contributed to its lower volatility.
    • JNJ's beta, consistently below 1, indicates that it is less sensitive to market movements than the overall market. However, AZN's even lower beta suggests that it might be even less risky than JNJ.
  8. Future Outlook:

    • JNJ's management has expressed confidence in the company's near- and long-term growth trajectory, driven by continued growth in the Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments. However, the company faces potential headwinds from STELARA biosimilar competition and the Part D redesign.
    • Analyst estimates for JNJ's future revenue and earnings growth are generally positive, but they also reflect the challenges the company faces in managing its legal and regulatory risks.
    • The company's future performance will depend on its ability to successfully navigate the competitive and regulatory landscape, manage its legal and regulatory risks, and continue to invest in innovation and growth.
  9. Summary:

    • JNJ is a diversified healthcare conglomerate with a strong track record of revenue growth and a robust R&D pipeline. However, the company faces significant legal and regulatory risks, which have impacted its profitability and valuation.
    • JNJ's financial performance has been mixed, with consistent revenue growth but declining profitability. The company's operational efficiency is improving, but its capital expenditure efficiency is relatively stable.
    • JNJ's growth opportunities are driven by its high-innovation, high-growth strategy, which includes investing in R&D, pursuing strategic acquisitions, and expanding its geographic reach.
    • JNJ's valuation is relatively lower than its peers, reflecting the challenges it faces in managing its legal and regulatory risks. The company's stock price has shown mixed performance, underperforming its benchmark and peers over longer periods.
    • JNJ's future outlook is positive, but the company faces potential headwinds from STELARA biosimilar competition and the Part D redesign. The company's future performance will depend on its ability to successfully navigate the competitive and regulatory landscape, manage its legal and regulatory risks, and continue to invest in innovation and growth.
    • Overall, JNJ is a large-cap healthcare company with a strong brand and a diversified portfolio of products. However, the company faces significant legal and regulatory risks, which could impact its future performance. Investors should carefully consider these risks and the company's valuation before making an investment decision.
Peer fundamentals 
Fundamentals
Insights
  • JNJ's revenue growth has been relatively stable, but profitability has been declining due to increased operating expenses and non-recurring charges.
  • The company's focus on innovation and growth has led to increased investment in R&D and acquisitions, which has impacted profitability.
  • JNJ's liquidity position appears to be strong, with a healthy level of cash and short-term investments.
  • The company's long-term solvency appears to be strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio and a healthy level of equity.
  • The recent increase in debt suggests a potential increase in leverage, which could impact future financial flexibility.
  • JNJ's asset utilization efficiency appears to be improving, as evidenced by the decline in accounts receivable and inventories.
  • The company's capital expenditure efficiency appears to be relatively stable, with investments in R&D and acquisitions driving growth.
  • JNJ's cash flows from operating activities have been relatively stable in recent quarters, indicating a consistent ability to generate cash from core business operations.
  • The company's free cash flow is expected to remain strong, supporting debt repayment capacity, dividend growth potential, and investment in organic growth opportunities.
  • JNJ faces significant legal and regulatory risks, particularly related to talc-containing products and opioid marketing, which have resulted in substantial charges and could continue to impact financial performance.
  • The company's recent increase in debt could impact its future financial flexibility.
  • The company's reliance on global supply chains and potential manufacturing disruptions could impact its operations and financial performance.
Analysis
  • Revenue - JNJ's revenue growth has been relatively stable in recent quarters, indicating a consistent ability to generate sales. - The company's revenue growth has been driven by strong performance in the Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments. - The company's revenue growth is expected to continue in the future, driven by continued growth in the Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments.
    • Profitability
      • JNJ's profitability has been declining in recent quarters, reflecting the impact of increased operating expenses and non-recurring charges.
      • The company's focus on innovation and growth has led to increased investment in R&D and acquisitions, which has impacted profitability.
      • The company's gross margin has been increasing, indicating improved cost management or a shift in product mix.
      • The company's profitability margins are expected to improve in the future as it continues to optimize its operations and manage expenses.
    • Liquidity
      • JNJ's liquidity position appears to be strong, with a healthy level of cash and short-term investments.
      • The company's short-term liquidity position appears to be strong, with a healthy level of operating cash flow.
      • The recent decline in cash and short-term investments suggests a potential shift in investment strategy or a reduction in liquidity.
    • Solvency
      • JNJ's long-term solvency appears to be strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio and a healthy level of equity.
      • The company's long-term solvency appears to be strong, with a healthy level of free cash flow generation and a low debt-to-equity ratio.
      • The recent increase in debt suggests a potential increase in leverage, which could impact future financial flexibility.
    • Operational Efficiency
      • JNJ's asset utilization efficiency appears to be improving, as evidenced by the decline in accounts receivable and inventories.
      • The company's capital expenditure efficiency appears to be relatively stable, with investments in R&D and acquisitions driving growth.
    • Cash Flow Analysis
      • JNJ's cash flows from operating activities have been relatively stable in recent quarters, indicating a consistent ability to generate cash from core business operations.
      • The company's free cash flow is expected to remain strong, supporting debt repayment capacity, dividend growth potential, and investment in organic growth opportunities.
      • The company's cash flows from investing activities have been volatile, driven by significant acquisitions and investments in R&D.
      • The company's cash flows from financing activities have been volatile, reflecting the company's debt issuance and share repurchase activities.
    • Risk Factors
      • JNJ faces significant legal and regulatory risks, particularly related to talc-containing products and opioid marketing, which have resulted in substantial charges and could continue to impact financial performance.
      • The company's recent increase in debt could impact its future financial flexibility.
      • The company's reliance on global supply chains and potential manufacturing disruptions could impact its operations and financial performance.
    • Future Outlook
      • JNJ's future revenue growth is expected to be driven by continued growth in the Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments.
      • The company's profitability margins are expected to improve as it continues to optimize its operations and manage expenses.
      • The company's free cash flow is expected to remain strong, supporting debt repayment capacity, dividend growth potential, and investment in organic growth opportunities.
Most recent earnings report
Financial statements 
All public filings
Comparative Analysis
Benchmarks (as of 2024-10-15)
Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV)
  • Performance Comparison:
    • JNJ has generally underperformed XLV over the past three years, with the exception of the shorter periods of 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months.
    • JNJ's performance has been inconsistent relative to XLV, with periods of outperformance and underperformance.
  • Risk and Return Analysis:
    • JNJ has provided lower annualized returns than XLV over the past three years.
    • JNJ has generally been less volatile than XLV, as indicated by its lower annualized volatility.
    • JNJ's maximum drawdown of 18.41% is slightly lower than XLV's maximum drawdown of 16.06%, indicating that JNJ has a slightly lower risk profile.
  • Risk-Adjusted Performance:
    • XLV has consistently offered a better risk-adjusted return than JNJ, as indicated by its higher Sharpe ratio.
    • JNJ's beta values suggest that it is less sensitive to market movements than XLV, indicating a lower risk profile.
  • Overall Assessment:
    • JNJ has underperformed XLV in terms of returns, but it has also been less volatile and has a slightly lower risk profile.
    • XLV has consistently offered better risk-adjusted returns than JNJ, as indicated by its higher Sharpe ratio.
    • JNJ's lower beta suggests that it is less sensitive to market movements than XLV, making it a potentially less risky investment.
    • Investors seeking higher returns may prefer XLV, while investors seeking lower risk may prefer JNJ.
Peers Price History(as of 2024-10-15)
  • Performance Comparison: JNJ has shown mixed performance compared to its peers. While it has outperformed MRK in the short term (YTD, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months), it has consistently underperformed both MRK and AZN over longer periods (1 year, 2 years, and 3 years). This suggests that JNJ might be facing challenges in maintaining its competitive edge in the long run.
  • Risk and Return Analysis: JNJ has consistently provided lower annualized returns than both MRK and AZN over the past three years. However, it has also exhibited lower annualized volatility, indicating a potentially lower risk profile. The maximum drawdown figures further support this, with JNJ experiencing a smaller maximum drawdown than AZN, but a larger drawdown than MRK. This suggests that JNJ might be a less volatile investment, but it comes at the cost of lower returns.
  • Risk-Adjusted Performance: Despite lower returns, JNJ's Sharpe ratio has been comparable to MRK, indicating that it has offered a similar risk-adjusted return. However, both JNJ and MRK have consistently underperformed AZN in terms of risk-adjusted returns. This suggests that AZN has been more efficient at generating returns relative to its risk. JNJ's beta, consistently below 1, indicates that it is less sensitive to market movements than the overall market. However, AZN's even lower beta suggests that it might be even less risky than JNJ.
  • Overall Assessment: JNJ appears to be a less volatile investment with a lower risk profile compared to its peers. However, this comes at the cost of lower returns. While JNJ has shown strong short-term performance, its long-term performance has lagged behind its peers. AZN, on the other hand, has consistently outperformed both JNJ and MRK in terms of both returns and risk-adjusted returns, despite exhibiting higher volatility. Investors seeking a less volatile investment with a lower risk profile might consider JNJ, but those seeking higher returns and a potentially higher risk profile might consider AZN.
Peers Fundamentals(as of 2024-09-30)
  1. Market Position and Size:

    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is the largest company in the peer group, with a market capitalization of 395,028 million, significantly larger than Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) at 282,707 million and AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) at 183,709 million. JNJ's market cap is 112,321 million greater than MRK and 211,319 million greater than AZN. This indicates JNJ's dominant position in the market.
    • JNJ's size advantage is reflected in its revenue, EBITDA, and net income. JNJ's revenue of 22,471 million is significantly higher than MRK's 16,156 million and AZN's 10,254.13 million. Similarly, JNJ's EBITDA is significantly higher than its peers, although it is not provided in the data. JNJ's net income of 2,694 million is also higher than AZN's 1,527.26 million, but lower than MRK's 5,455 million.
    • JNJ's size and market position within the peer group are dominant. It is the largest company in the group, with a market cap significantly larger than its peers. This size advantage is reflected in its key financial metrics, further solidifying its dominant position in the market.
  2. Profitability and Efficiency:

    • JNJ's Gross Profit Margin of 74.22% is slightly higher than MRK's 73.43% and slightly lower than AZN's 75.69%. However, all three companies significantly outperform the industry average of -804.89%. This indicates that JNJ's profitability is strong, but not necessarily the highest in the peer group.
    • JNJ's EBITDA Margin is not provided in the data, but its size and revenue suggest it is likely to be higher than its peers. JNJ's Net Profit Margin of 11.99% is significantly lower than MRK's 33.76% and slightly lower than AZN's 14.89%. However, all three companies significantly outperform the industry average of -439633.51%. This suggests that JNJ's profitability is strong, but it is not as profitable as MRK, despite its larger size and revenue.
    • JNJ's profitability metrics are strong, but it underperforms in Net Profit Margin compared to both peers and industry standards. This suggests that JNJ may have higher operating expenses or other factors impacting its net income, despite its strong revenue and gross profit margin.
    • JNJ's Return on Average Assets, Return on Average Total Equity, Return on Average Total Capital, and Return On Average Invested Capital are not provided in the data. However, its size and market position suggest that it is likely to be efficient in generating returns.
    • JNJ's efficiency in generating returns is likely to be strong, given its size and market position. However, without specific data on its return metrics, it is difficult to definitively compare its efficiency to its peers.
  3. Financial Health and Stability:

    • JNJ's Current Ratio and Quick Ratio are not provided in the data. However, its Total Debt to Total Equity Ratio and Debt / EBITDA are not provided in the data.
    • JNJ's liquidity and debt position are not provided in the data, making it difficult to compare to its peers. However, its large market cap and dominant position suggest that it is likely to have a strong liquidity position and a manageable debt level.
  4. Valuation and Market Perception:

    • JNJ's Enterprise Value To Sales of 4.54 is slightly lower than MRK's 4.56 and slightly higher than AZN's 4.74. However, all three companies significantly outperform the industry average of 1223.25. This suggests that JNJ is relatively undervalued compared to its peers and the industry.
    • JNJ's Enterprise Value To EBITDA is not provided in the data. JNJ's Price To Earnings of 27.13 is higher than MRK's 20.67 and lower than AZN's 35.96. However, all three companies significantly underperform the industry average of 163.07. This suggests that JNJ is relatively undervalued compared to its peers and the industry.
    • JNJ's Price to Book Ratio of 5.52 is lower than MRK's 6.49 and slightly lower than AZN's 5.88. However, all three companies significantly underperform the industry average of 11.71. This suggests that JNJ is relatively undervalued compared to its peers and the industry.
    • JNJ's Price To Sales Ratio of 4.54 is slightly lower than MRK's 4.56 and slightly higher than AZN's 4.74. However, all three companies significantly underperform the industry average of 1223.25. This suggests that JNJ is relatively undervalued compared to its peers and the industry.
    • JNJ's valuation metrics suggest that it is relatively undervalued compared to its peers and the industry. This could be due to its large size, dominant market position, and strong financial performance.
  5. Cash Flow and Capital Management:

    • JNJ's Net Operating Cash Flow, Total Capital Expenditure, and Free Cash Flow are not provided in the data. However, its size and market position suggest that it is likely to have strong cash flow generation.
    • JNJ's cash flow generation strength is likely to be strong, given its size and market position. However, without specific data on its cash flow metrics, it is difficult to definitively compare its cash flow generation to its peers.
  6. Growth and Future Prospects:

    • JNJ's growth metrics show a mixed picture. While it has consistently outperformed the peer group average in Net Income growth, it has consistently underperformed in Sales/Revenue, EBITDA, Free Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow Margin, Total Assets, Book Value Per Share, and EBIT Margin growth. This suggests that JNJ's growth is not balanced across all metrics.
    • JNJ's year-over-year growth rates show significant fluctuations, particularly in Net Income, Basic Earnings per Share, Free Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow Margin, and EBIT Margin. This suggests that JNJ's growth is not consistent and may be subject to external factors or internal strategic shifts.
    • JNJ's 3-year and 5-year CAGR figures show a similar trend. While its 5-year CAGR for EBIT Margin is higher than its 3-year CAGR, its 3-year and 5-year CAGRs for Sales/Revenue and Net Income are lower than the peer group average. This suggests that JNJ's long-term growth is not as strong as its peers, particularly in revenue and net income.
    • JNJ's growth trends suggest that it is facing challenges in maintaining consistent growth across all metrics. While it has shown strong growth in Net Income, its growth in other key areas is lagging behind its peers. This could be due to factors such as increased competition, regulatory changes, or internal strategic decisions.
    • JNJ's growth profile is not balanced across different metrics. Its growth is concentrated in Net Income, while other key areas are lagging behind. This could be a red flag, as it suggests that JNJ's growth may not be sustainable in the long term.
  7. Potential for Investment:

    • JNJ's investment attractiveness is mixed. Its large size, dominant market position, and undervalued valuation are potential advantages. However, its lagging growth, lower profitability compared to MRK, and limited data availability are potential disadvantages. Investors should carefully consider these factors before making an investment decision.
  8. Key Risks and Considerations:

    • JNJ's lagging growth in key areas, such as sales and free cash flow, could indicate challenges in maintaining its competitive edge.
    • JNJ's lower profitability compared to MRK, despite its larger size and revenue, suggests that it may have higher operating expenses or other factors impacting its net income.
    • The lack of data on JNJ's key financial metrics, such as EBITDA Margin, Return on Average Assets, and Return on Average Total Equity, makes it difficult to fully assess its financial health and performance.
  9. Overall Assessment:

    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is a financially strong company with a dominant market position. However, it faces challenges in maintaining consistent growth and profitability. Its large size, strong revenue generation, and undervalued valuation are key strengths. However, its lagging growth in key areas, lower profitability compared to MRK, and limited data availability are areas of concern. Investors should carefully consider these factors before making an investment decision.