Thematic evaluation
Back to company overview

Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ)

October 08, 2024

Compared to: CME Group, Inc. (CME) | S&P Global, Inc. (SPGI) | Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF)

Our reasoning

NDAQ appears slightly undervalued due to its strong market position, above-average profitability metrics, and growth potential in financial technology and data analytics. While there are risks such as intense competition and regulatory challenges, these seem to be more than offset by the company's diversified business model, technological innovations, and potential for margin expansion.

Key takeaways
  • NDAQ has a diversified business model with strong growth potential in financial technology and data analytics.
  • The company's profitability is currently below the industry average, but its EBITDA margin is significantly higher, suggesting potential for improvement.
  • NDAQ has a strong financial position with healthy liquidity and a conservative capital structure.
  • The company's cash flow generation is robust, supporting its growth initiatives and shareholder returns.
  • NDAQ faces intense competition and regulatory risks, which investors should carefully consider.
  • The company's valuation metrics suggest potential undervaluation, and its future outlook appears positive.
  • NDAQ's price performance has been strong in the short term but has underperformed in the longer term.
  • Overall, NDAQ is a company with a strong financial position, a diversified business model, and a commitment to innovation. However, the company faces intense competition and regulatory risks. Investors should carefully consider these factors before making any investment decisions.
Undervalued
Ask a question about Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ)
Evaluation summary

  1. Company Overview:

    • Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) is a global technology company that provides a wide range of services to the capital markets and financial system. Its business model is diversified across three segments: Capital Access Platforms, Financial Technology, and Market Services.
    • NDAQ's key products and services include data, listings, indices, analytics, corporate solutions, financial crime management, regulatory technology, and exchange/clearing operations.
    • The company's target market includes corporate issuers, investment managers, banks, brokers, and exchange operators.
    • NDAQ competes with other exchange operators, trading platforms, data/analytics providers, and financial technology firms.
    • For comparative analysis, we will be using the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) as a benchmark and S&P Global, Inc. (SPGI) and CME Group, Inc. (CME) as industry peers.

  2. Financial Performance:

    • NDAQ has experienced steady revenue growth in recent years, driven by strong demand for its products and services, particularly in its financial technology and data analytics segments.
    • The company's revenue growth is also supported by its strategic initiatives, such as the acquisition of Adenza and investments in AI-powered capabilities.
    • NDAQ's profitability ratios are currently below the industry average, suggesting that it may be less efficient in generating profits compared to its peers.
    • The company's EBITDA margin is significantly higher than the industry average, suggesting that it is more efficient in generating operating profits.
    • NDAQ's net profit margin is slightly higher than the industry average, indicating that it is more efficient in generating net profits.
    • The company's ROA, ROE, and ROIC have been declining in recent quarters, indicating a potential trend of decreasing profitability.
    • Compared to its peers, NDAQ has outperformed SPGI and CME in the short term, particularly over the past year. However, over longer periods, NDAQ has consistently underperformed its peers. This suggests that NDAQ may be more susceptible to market fluctuations and economic downturns.

  3. Operational Efficiency:

    • NDAQ's balance sheet analysis reveals a strong liquidity position, with a significant increase in cash and short-term investments.
    • The company's strong cash flow generation and conservative approach to capital deployment contribute to its healthy liquidity position.
    • NDAQ's working capital analysis indicates a potential for improvement in managing its accounts receivable and inventory.
    • The company's net operating cash flow has experienced consistent growth, demonstrating its ability to generate cash from its core business operations.
    • NDAQ's free cash flow margin has been relatively stable over time, indicating a healthy relationship between cash flow generation and revenue.
    • The company's capital expenditures appear to be aligned with its strategic focus on financial technology and data analytics, suggesting a commitment to organic growth.
    • NDAQ's dividend and share repurchase sustainability analysis indicates a strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
    • The company's short-term and long-term liquidity ratios are strong, indicating a healthy financial position.
    • NDAQ's debt-to-equity and leverage ratios are lower than the industry average, indicating a more conservative capital structure and lower financial leverage.
    • Compared to its peers, NDAQ has generally exhibited lower annualized volatility than SPGI and CME, indicating a potentially lower risk profile. However, there have been periods of higher volatility, particularly in Q4 2022 and Q2 2023.

  4. Growth Opportunities:

    • NDAQ's market expansion plans include leveraging its existing platform to expand into new markets and product offerings.
    • The company's acquisition of Adenza significantly expands its regulatory technology and risk management capabilities, aligning with industry trends towards compliance and financial crime prevention.
    • NDAQ's R&D pipeline includes investments in AI-powered capabilities, which are enhancing productivity and driving new product development.
    • The company's geographic expansion plans include expanding its presence in emerging markets.
    • NDAQ's current strategic focus areas include financial technology, data analytics, and corporate solutions.
    • The company is making strong progress in its "innovate" priority, with approximately 50% of its employees working with AI tools and a pipeline of new AI-powered features for client-facing solutions.
    • NDAQ's capital allocation strategies are focused on organic growth, strategic acquisitions, and returning capital to shareholders.
    • The company's management team has a history of successfully executing strategic plans.

  5. Risks and Threats:

    • NDAQ faces intense competition in all business segments from other exchanges, trading platforms, and financial technology providers.
    • The company is reliant on technology systems and is vulnerable to operational disruptions or cybersecurity breaches.
    • NDAQ's ability to successfully integrate acquisitions and realize expected synergies is a key risk factor.
    • Regulatory changes could impact pricing, market structure, or compliance requirements, posing a significant risk to the company's operations.
    • Litigation, investigations, and other legal/regulatory matters could adversely impact the company's financial performance and reputation.
    • The company's core exchange business faces competitive pressures and regulatory risks.
    • NDAQ's diversification into higher-growth, higher-margin segments like data, analytics, and SaaS-based solutions provides avenues for continued expansion.

  6. Valuation Analysis:

    • NDAQ's valuation metrics, such as P/E and EV/EBITDA, are currently below the industry average, suggesting that the company may be undervalued.
    • Compared to its peers, NDAQ's valuation metrics are generally lower, indicating a potentially lower valuation.
    • Potential catalysts for NDAQ's valuation include continued revenue growth, expansion into new markets, and successful integration of acquisitions.

  7. Price Performance:

    • NDAQ's price history analysis reveals that the company has outperformed XLF in the short term, particularly over the past year, but has underperformed in the longer term, especially over the past two and three years. This suggests that NDAQ may be more sensitive to short-term market fluctuations.
    • NDAQ's performance has been less consistent than XLF's, with periods of both outperformance and underperformance.
    • Compared to its peers, NDAQ has outperformed SPGI and CME in the short term, particularly over the past year. However, over longer periods, NDAQ has consistently underperformed its peers. This suggests that NDAQ may be more susceptible to market fluctuations and economic downturns.
    • NDAQ's volatility and beta analysis suggests that the company is less risky than the overall market.

  8. Future Outlook:

    • NDAQ's management guidance indicates continued revenue growth, strong cash flow generation, and a commitment to innovation and strategic acquisitions.
    • The company's diversified business model, focus on financial technology and data analytics, and strong financial position provide a solid foundation for future growth.
    • Analyst estimates for NDAQ's future performance are generally positive, with consensus trends indicating continued revenue growth and profitability improvement.

  9. Summary:

    • NDAQ is a global technology company with a diversified business model that provides a wide range of services to the capital markets and financial system.
    • The company has experienced steady revenue growth in recent years, driven by strong demand for its products and services, particularly in its financial technology and data analytics segments.
    • NDAQ's profitability ratios are currently below the industry average, suggesting that it may be less efficient in generating profits compared to its peers.
    • The company's liquidity position appears strong, with a significant increase in cash and short-term investments.
    • NDAQ's long-term solvency appears stable, with a manageable level of debt and a strong equity base.
    • The company's cash flow generation is strong, with consistent growth in net operating cash flow and a healthy free cash flow margin.
    • NDAQ's capital expenditures appear to be aligned with its strategic focus on financial technology and data analytics, suggesting a commitment to organic growth.
    • The company's acquisition of Adenza demonstrates its willingness to pursue strategic acquisitions to expand its product offerings and market reach.
    • NDAQ faces intense competition in all business segments from other exchanges, trading platforms, and financial technology providers.
    • The company is reliant on technology systems and is vulnerable to operational disruptions or cybersecurity breaches.
    • NDAQ's ability to successfully integrate acquisitions and realize expected synergies is a key risk factor.
    • Regulatory changes could impact pricing, market structure, or compliance requirements, posing a significant risk to the company's operations.
    • Litigation, investigations, and other legal/regulatory matters could adversely impact the company's financial performance and reputation.
    • NDAQ's future outlook appears positive, with continued revenue growth, strong cash flow generation, and a commitment to innovation and strategic acquisitions.
    • The company's diversified business model, focus on financial technology and data analytics, and strong financial position provide a solid foundation for future growth.
    • NDAQ's valuation metrics are currently below the industry average, suggesting that the company may be undervalued.
    • The company's price performance has been strong in the short term but has underperformed in the longer term.
    • NDAQ's management guidance indicates continued revenue growth, strong cash flow generation, and a commitment to innovation and strategic acquisitions.
    • Analyst estimates for NDAQ's future performance are generally positive, with consensus trends indicating continued revenue growth and profitability improvement.
    • Overall, NDAQ is a company with a strong financial position, a diversified business model, and a commitment to innovation. However, the company faces intense competition and regulatory risks. Investors should carefully consider these factors before making any investment decisions.
Peer fundamentals 
Fundamentals
Insights
  • Nasdaq Inc. has experienced steady revenue growth, driven by strong demand for its products and services, particularly in its financial technology and data analytics segments.
  • The company's profitability ratios are currently below the industry average, suggesting that it may be less efficient in generating profits compared to its peers.
  • The company's liquidity position appears strong, with a significant increase in cash and short-term investments.
  • The company's long-term solvency appears stable, with a manageable level of debt and a strong equity base.
  • The company's cash flow generation is strong, with consistent growth in net operating cash flow and a healthy free cash flow margin.
  • The company's capital expenditures appear to be aligned with its strategic focus on financial technology and data analytics, suggesting a commitment to organic growth.
  • The company's acquisition of Adenza demonstrates its willingness to pursue strategic acquisitions to expand its product offerings and market reach.
  • The company faces intense competition in all business segments from other exchanges, trading platforms, and financial technology providers.
  • The company is reliant on technology systems and is vulnerable to operational disruptions or cybersecurity breaches.
  • The company's ability to successfully integrate acquisitions and realize expected synergies is a key risk factor.
  • Regulatory changes could impact pricing, market structure, or compliance requirements, posing a significant risk to the company's operations.
  • Litigation, investigations, and other legal/regulatory matters could adversely impact the company's financial performance and reputation.
  • The company's future outlook appears positive, with continued revenue growth, strong cash flow generation, and a commitment to innovation and strategic acquisitions.
Analysis
  • Revenue - The company has experienced steady revenue growth, indicating strong demand for its products and services. - The company's revenue growth is driven by its diversified business model, which includes exchange operations, data and analytics, financial technology, and corporate solutions. - The company's revenue growth is also supported by its strategic initiatives, such as the acquisition of Adenza and investments in AI-powered capabilities. - The company's revenue growth is expected to continue, driven by strong demand for its products and services, particularly in its financial technology and data analytics segments.
    • Profitability
      • The company's profitability ratios are currently below the industry average, suggesting that it may be less efficient in generating profits compared to its peers.
      • The company's profitability ratios have been declining in recent quarters, indicating a potential trend of decreasing profitability.
      • The company's EBITDA margin is significantly higher than the industry average, suggesting that it is more efficient in generating operating profits.
      • The company's net profit margin is slightly higher than the industry average, indicating that it is more efficient in generating net profits.
    • Liquidity
      • The company's liquidity position appears strong, with a significant increase in cash and short-term investments.
      • The company's strong cash flow generation and conservative approach to capital deployment contribute to its healthy liquidity position.
    • Solvency
      • The company's long-term solvency appears stable, with a manageable level of debt and a strong equity base.
      • The company's total debt to total equity ratio and debt to EBITDA ratio are both lower than the industry average, indicating a more conservative capital structure and lower financial leverage.
      • The company's solvency ratios have been declining in recent quarters, indicating a potential trend of increasing financial leverage.
    • Operational Efficiency
      • The company's operational efficiency is not available in the provided data.
    • Cash Flow Analysis
      • The company has experienced consistent growth in net operating cash flow, demonstrating its ability to generate cash from its core business operations.
      • The company's free cash flow margin has been relatively stable over time, indicating a healthy relationship between cash flow generation and revenue.
      • The company's financial flexibility appears strong, allowing it to pursue strategic investments and navigate potential economic downturns.
      • The company's capital expenditures appear to be aligned with its strategic focus on financial technology and data analytics, suggesting a commitment to organic growth.
      • The company's acquisition of Adenza demonstrates its willingness to pursue strategic acquisitions to expand its product offerings and market reach.
    • Risk Factors
      • The company faces intense competition in all business segments from other exchanges, trading platforms, and financial technology providers.
      • The company is reliant on technology systems and is vulnerable to operational disruptions or cybersecurity breaches.
      • The company's ability to successfully integrate acquisitions and realize expected synergies is a key risk factor.
      • Regulatory changes could impact pricing, market structure, or compliance requirements, posing a significant risk to the company's operations.
      • Litigation, investigations, and other legal/regulatory matters could adversely impact the company's financial performance and reputation.
    • Future Outlook
      • The company's future outlook appears positive, with continued revenue growth, strong cash flow generation, and a commitment to innovation and strategic acquisitions.
      • The company's diversified business model, focus on financial technology and data analytics, and strong financial position provide a solid foundation for future growth.
      • The company's ability to navigate the dynamic market environment, leverage its diversified platform, and unlock its next phase of growth will be key to its future success.
Most recent earnings report
Financial statements 
All public filings
Comparative Analysis
Benchmarks (as of 2024-10-07)
Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF)
  • Performance Comparison:
    • NDAQ has outperformed XLF in the short term, particularly over the past year, but has underperformed in the longer term, especially over the past two and three years. This suggests that NDAQ may be more sensitive to short-term market fluctuations.
    • NDAQ's performance has been less consistent than XLF's, with periods of both outperformance and underperformance.
  • Risk and Return Analysis:
    • NDAQ has provided higher annualized returns than XLF over the past year, but has underperformed in the longer term. This suggests that NDAQ may be more volatile and less suitable for long-term investors.
    • NDAQ has generally been less volatile than XLF, with the exception of Q3 and Q4 of 2022. This suggests that NDAQ may be a less risky investment than XLF.
    • NDAQ's maximum drawdown of 32.84% in Q2 of 2022 is significantly higher than XLF's maximum drawdown of 25.81% in Q4 of 2022. This indicates that NDAQ is more susceptible to significant market downturns.
  • Risk-Adjusted Performance:
    • NDAQ's Sharpe ratio has generally been lower than XLF's, indicating that XLF has offered a better risk-adjusted return over the period.
    • NDAQ's beta suggests that it is less risky than the overall market, while XLF's beta suggests that it is slightly more risky than the overall market.
  • Overall Assessment:
    • NDAQ has shown strong short-term performance but has underperformed in the longer term. Its lower volatility and lower beta suggest that it may be a less risky investment than XLF. However, its higher maximum drawdown and lower Sharpe ratio indicate that it may not be as suitable for long-term investors seeking consistent risk-adjusted returns.
    • Investors should carefully consider their investment horizon and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
Peers Price History(as of 2024-10-07)
CME Group, Inc. (CME)S&P Global, Inc. (SPGI)
  • Performance Comparison:
    • NDAQ has outperformed SPGI and CME in the short term, particularly over the past year. However, over longer periods, NDAQ has consistently underperformed its peers. This suggests that NDAQ may be more susceptible to market fluctuations and economic downturns.
  • Risk and Return Analysis:
    • NDAQ has provided lower annualized returns than SPGI and CME over the past three years. This suggests that NDAQ may not be as profitable as its peers.
    • NDAQ has generally exhibited lower annualized volatility than SPGI and CME, indicating a potentially lower risk profile. However, there have been periods of higher volatility, particularly in Q4 2022 and Q2 2023.
    • NDAQ's maximum drawdown of 32.84% in Q2 2022 is lower than SPGI's 39.76% but higher than CME's 31.74%. This suggests that NDAQ's risk profile is somewhere between SPGI and CME.
  • Risk-Adjusted Performance:
    • NDAQ's Sharpe Ratio has generally been lower than SPGI and CME, indicating a potentially lower risk-adjusted return. This suggests that NDAQ may not be as efficient at generating returns relative to its risk.
    • NDAQ's beta of consistently below 1 suggests a lower sensitivity to market movements than the overall market. This indicates a potentially lower risk profile than SPGI, which has a beta consistently above 1.
  • Overall Assessment:
    • NDAQ has shown strong short-term performance but has consistently underperformed its peers over longer periods. This suggests that NDAQ may be more susceptible to market fluctuations and economic downturns. While NDAQ has a lower volatility and beta than SPGI, indicating a potentially lower risk profile, its lower annualized returns and Sharpe Ratio suggest that it may not be as efficient at generating returns relative to its risk.
    • Investors should carefully consider the trade-off between NDAQ's lower risk profile and its lower returns. If investors are seeking a lower-risk investment, NDAQ may be a suitable option. However, if investors are seeking higher returns, SPGI or CME may be better choices.
Peers Fundamentals(as of 2024-06-30)
CME Group, Inc. (CME)S&P Global, Inc. (SPGI)

  1. Market Position and Size:

    • NDAQ is the smallest company in the peer group, with a market cap that is less than half the size of its closest competitor, CME.
    • NDAQ's market cap is significantly smaller than its peers, but its revenue is closer to CME's than SPGI's.
    • NDAQ's EBITDA is also closer to CME's than SPGI's, but its net income is significantly lower than both peers.

  2. Profitability and Efficiency:

    • NDAQ's Gross Profit Margin is slightly above the industry average, but its EBITDA Margin and Net Profit Margin are significantly lower than its peers.
    • NDAQ's Return on Average Assets is slightly below the industry average, but its Return on Average Total Equity, Return on Average Total Capital, and Return On Average Invested Capital are all lower than its peers.

  3. Financial Health and Stability:

    • NDAQ's liquidity position is not available for comparison.
    • NDAQ's debt position is significantly higher than its peers and the industry average, suggesting that it may be more leveraged than its peers and may be more vulnerable to financial distress.

  4. Valuation and Market Perception:

    • NDAQ's valuation metrics are mixed. While its Enterprise Value To Sales and Price To Sales Ratio are higher than the industry average, its Enterprise Value To EBITDA, Price To Earnings, and Price to Book Ratio are all lower than its peers.
    • This suggests that NDAQ may be undervalued by the market relative to its peers.

  5. Cash Flow and Capital Management:

    • NDAQ's cash flow generation strength is significantly lower than its peers, despite having a smaller market cap.
    • This suggests that NDAQ may be less efficient in converting its earnings into cash flow than its peers.

  6. Growth and Future Prospect:

    • NDAQ's growth metrics are mixed. While its EBITDA, Free Cash Flow, and Free Cash Flow Margin have shown consistently higher growth than the peer group average, its Sales/Revenue, Net Income, Basic Earnings per Share, Total Assets, and Book Value Per Share have shown consistently lower growth.
    • NDAQ's growth is concentrated in specific areas, such as Free Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow Margin, and Total Assets. This suggests that NDAQ may be focusing on improving its efficiency and capital allocation, rather than on expanding its revenue base.

  7. Potential for Investment:

    • NDAQ's investment attractiveness is mixed. While it has shown strong growth in its Free Cash Flow and has a higher EBITDA Margin than the industry average, it has lower profitability than its peers and has high debt levels.
    • This suggests that NDAQ may be a less profitable and more risky investment than its peers. However, NDAQ's valuation metrics suggest that it may be undervalued by the market relative to its peers.

  8. Key Risks and Considerations:

    • NDAQ's high debt levels pose a significant risk to its financial stability.
    • NDAQ's lower profitability and growth in key metrics compared to its peers suggest that it may be facing challenges in expanding its revenue base and profitability.

  9. Overall Assessment:

    • NDAQ is a smaller company with mixed financial performance. While it has shown strong growth in its Free Cash Flow and has a higher EBITDA Margin than the industry average, it has lower profitability than its peers and has high debt levels.
    • NDAQ's valuation metrics suggest that it may be undervalued by the market relative to its peers. However, its high debt levels and lower profitability pose significant risks to its financial stability and future prospects.