Thematic evaluation
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Oracle Corp. (ORCL)

September 06, 2024

Compared to: ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW) | Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) | Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK)

Our reasoning

Oracle's current valuation appears fair, balancing its strong cloud services growth and profitability with potential risks and competitive pressures. The company's strategic shift towards higher-margin cloud services and successful multi-cloud partnerships support its current valuation, while its valuation multiples are in line with industry peers. However, the potential for accelerated cloud adoption and AI/ML advancements could provide upside to the current valuation.

Key takeaways
  • Oracle's cloud services business is driving significant revenue growth and profitability, with a double-digit growth rate expected to continue in the coming year.
  • The company's strong financial position, with ample liquidity and cash flows, enables it to fund growth initiatives, return capital to shareholders, and pursue strategic acquisitions.
  • Oracle's multi-cloud strategy, with partnerships like those with Microsoft and Google, is providing customers with more flexibility and choice in their cloud deployments, which is a key competitive advantage.
  • The company faces various risks, including competition, regulatory compliance, and legal disputes. However, its strong financial performance, growth prospects, and lower risk profile compared to its peers make it an attractive investment opportunity.
  • Oracle's future performance will be driven by its ability to continue growing its cloud services business, expand its geographic reach, and successfully execute its strategic plans.
Fairly valued

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Evaluation summary
  1. Company Overview:

    • Oracle Corp. (ORCL) is a leading provider of enterprise information technology (IT) products and services, with a focus on cloud-based offerings. The company's business model is centered around providing enterprise applications, infrastructure technologies, and related services to businesses, government agencies, educational institutions, and resellers worldwide.
    • ORCL's key products and services include cloud services and license support, cloud licenses and on-premise licenses, hardware, and professional services. The company's revenue is primarily driven by its cloud services and license support segment, which includes offerings like Oracle Cloud Services and license support for on-premise and cloud software.
    • ORCL's target market is primarily large enterprises and government agencies seeking to modernize their IT infrastructure and adopt cloud-based solutions. The company competes with major players like Adobe, Alphabet, Amazon, Cisco, IBM, Microsoft, Salesforce, and SAP.
    • For comparative analysis, we will be using the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) as a benchmark and ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW) and Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) as industry peers.
  2. Financial Performance:

    • ORCL has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the past few years, driven by the strong demand for its cloud services. The company's cloud services revenue has been growing at a double-digit rate, while its hardware business has been declining due to the strategic shift towards cloud offerings.
    • ORCL's profitability has been expanding, with increasing gross margins, operating margins, and net margins. This is attributed to the economies of scale in the cloud business and the company's cost management initiatives.
    • ORCL's return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and return on invested capital (ROIC) have all been consistently high, indicating strong financial performance.
    • Compared to its peers, NOW and PANW, ORCL has generally shown higher annualized returns over the past three years, but it has also been more volatile.
  3. Operational Efficiency:

    • ORCL's balance sheet analysis reveals a strong short-term liquidity position, with a healthy cash position and decreasing short-term debt. The company's strong operating cash flow trends indicate a healthy short-term liquidity position.
    • ORCL's working capital management has been efficient, with a decreasing trend in working capital.
    • ORCL generates strong cash flow from its core business operations, with a high quality of earnings. The company's strong free cash flow generation capacity enables it to continue investing in its cloud services business, pursue strategic acquisitions, and return value to shareholders.
    • ORCL's asset quality is generally good, with a decreasing trend in intangible assets and a stable level of goodwill.
    • ORCL's capital expenditure (CapEx) has been increasing, driven by investments in its cloud infrastructure. The company's depreciation trends are consistent with its CapEx investments.
    • ORCL has a sustainable dividend and share repurchase program, supported by its strong free cash flow generation.
    • Compared to its peers, ORCL has generally shown higher risk-adjusted returns, as indicated by its higher Sharpe Ratio.
    • ORCL's short-term and long-term liquidity ratios are strong, indicating a healthy financial position.
    • ORCL's debt-to-equity and leverage ratios have been stable, suggesting a conservative approach to debt management.
  4. Growth Opportunities:

    • ORCL has significant growth opportunities in the expanding cloud computing market. The company is focused on expanding its cloud services business, particularly Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), Autonomous Database, and strategic SaaS applications.
    • ORCL has a history of successful acquisitions, including the acquisition of Cerner Corporation, a healthcare IT company, in fiscal 2023. The company is actively pursuing strategic acquisitions to expand its cloud services business and its healthcare IT offerings.
    • ORCL has a robust R&D pipeline, focused on developing innovative cloud technologies, including AI and machine learning solutions.
    • ORCL is expanding its geographic reach, targeting emerging markets with high growth potential.
    • ORCL's current strategic focus areas include expanding its multi-cloud partnerships, investing in building out OCI capacity, and exiting the advertising business.
    • ORCL's capital allocation strategy is focused on investing in its cloud services business, pursuing strategic acquisitions, and returning value to shareholders.
    • Management has a track record of successfully executing strategic plans, as evidenced by the company's strong financial performance and consistent growth in its cloud services business.
  5. Risks and Threats:

    • ORCL faces various risks, including the ability to successfully develop, integrate, and sell new products and services, performance and security issues with cloud, license, and hardware offerings, supply chain disruptions, and the ability to attract and retain key talent.
    • The company also faces intense competition and pricing pressure in the IT industry.
    • ORCL is exposed to foreign currency fluctuations and legal and regulatory compliance risks, including data privacy and cybersecurity.
    • The company faces various legal and tax-related disputes that could result in significant liabilities.
    • ORCL's decrease in intangible assets and the increase in long-term debt are potential areas of concern.
  6. Valuation Analysis:

    • ORCL's valuation metrics, such as P/E ratio and EV/EBITDA, are generally in line with its peers.
    • Compared to its peers, ORCL's valuation is relatively attractive, considering its strong financial performance, growth prospects, and lower risk profile.
    • Potential catalysts for ORCL's valuation include continued growth in its cloud services business, successful acquisitions, and expansion into new markets.
  7. Price Performance:

    • ORCL's stock price has generally outperformed the benchmark XLK over the past three years, with the exception of the 1-year period.
    • ORCL's price performance has been more volatile than XLK's, indicating that ORCL may be more susceptible to short-term market fluctuations.
    • Compared to its peers, NOW and PANW, ORCL's price performance has been mixed, with outperformance in the long term and underperformance in the short term.
    • ORCL's beta is lower than XLK's, suggesting that it is less sensitive to market movements.
  8. Future Outlook:

    • Management expects double-digit revenue growth in fiscal year 2025, with each successive quarter growing faster than the previous.
    • Fiscal year 2025 cloud infrastructure services are expected to grow faster than the 50% reported in fiscal year 2024.
    • Capital expenditures in fiscal year 2025 are expected to be double that of fiscal year 2024.
    • Analyst estimates for ORCL's future performance are generally positive, with consensus expectations for continued growth in its cloud services business.
  9. Summary:

    • ORCL is a financially strong company with a solid track record of growth and profitability. The company's strategic shift towards cloud-based offerings is paying off, with its cloud services business driving significant revenue growth and margin expansion.
    • ORCL has a strong financial position, with ample liquidity and cash flows, enabling it to fund growth initiatives, return capital to shareholders, and pursue strategic acquisitions.
    • The company faces various risks, including competition, regulatory compliance, and legal disputes. However, its strong financial performance, growth prospects, and lower risk profile compared to its peers make it an attractive investment opportunity.
    • ORCL's future performance will be driven by its ability to continue growing its cloud services business, expand its geographic reach, and successfully execute its strategic plans.
    • Key areas requiring further monitoring include the company's ability to manage its debt levels, its progress on its strategic initiatives, and the resolution of its legal and tax-related disputes.
    • Overall, ORCL is a well-positioned company with a strong financial foundation, a clear growth strategy, and a history of successful execution. The company's focus on cloud computing, its strong financial performance, and its lower risk profile compared to its peers make it an attractive investment opportunity for investors seeking long-term growth.
Peer fundamentals 
Fundamentals
Insights
  • Oracle's cloud services business is driving significant revenue growth and profitability.
  • The company's cost management initiatives are contributing to margin expansion.
  • The company's strong financial performance is a result of its strategic shift towards cloud-based offerings and its focus on operational efficiency.
  • The company's strong cash position and decreasing short-term debt indicate a healthy short-term liquidity position.
  • The company's strong free cash flow generation and its ability to manage its debt levels effectively suggest a strong long-term solvency position.
  • The company's investments in its cloud infrastructure are driving significant revenue and profit growth, suggesting a high level of CapEx efficiency.
  • The company's acquisition strategy is focused on expanding its cloud services business and its healthcare IT offerings.
  • The company's overall capital allocation strategy is focused on investing in its cloud services business, pursuing strategic acquisitions, and returning value to shareholders.
  • The company faces various legal and tax-related disputes that could result in significant liabilities, though the company believes the ultimate outcomes will not have a material impact.
  • Oracle is expected to continue to grow its cloud services business at a double-digit rate in the coming year.
  • The company is expected to continue to expand its margins as it benefits from economies of scale in the cloud business.
  • The company's strong financial position will enable it to continue to invest in its cloud infrastructure, applications, and services, pursue strategic acquisitions, and return value to shareholders.
Analysis
  • Revenue - Oracle's revenue is growing steadily, driven by the strong demand for its cloud services. - The company's strategic shift towards cloud-based offerings is paying off, with cloud services now accounting for nearly 75% of total revenue. - The company's revenue growth is being driven by the strong demand for its cloud services, particularly Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), Autonomous Database, and strategic SaaS applications.
    • Profitability
      • Oracle is highly profitable, with expanding gross margin, operating margin, and net margin.
      • The company's profitability is being driven by the economies of scale in the cloud business and its cost management initiatives.
      • The company's strong financial performance is a result of its strategic shift towards cloud-based offerings and its focus on operational efficiency.
    • Liquidity
      • Oracle has a strong short-term liquidity position, with a healthy cash position and decreasing short-term debt.
      • The company's strong operating cash flow trends indicate a healthy short-term liquidity position.
    • Solvency
      • Oracle has a strong long-term solvency position, with ample liquidity and cash flows.
      • The company's strong free cash flow generation and its ability to manage its debt levels effectively suggest a strong long-term solvency position.
    • Operational Efficiency
      • Oracle is effectively managing its operating costs, which is contributing to margin expansion.
      • The company's investments in its cloud infrastructure are driving significant revenue and profit growth, suggesting a high level of CapEx efficiency.
    • Cash Flow Analysis
      • Oracle generates strong cash flow from its core business operations, with a high quality of earnings.
      • The company's strong free cash flow generation capacity will enable it to continue to invest in its cloud services business, pursue strategic acquisitions, and return value to shareholders.
    • Risk Factors
      • The company's decrease in intangible assets and the increase in long-term debt are potential areas of concern.
      • The company faces various legal and tax-related disputes that could result in significant liabilities, though the company believes the ultimate outcomes will not have a material impact.
    • Future Outlook
      • Oracle is expected to continue to grow its cloud services business at a double-digit rate in the coming year.
      • The company is expected to continue to expand its margins as it benefits from economies of scale in the cloud business.
      • The company's strong financial position will enable it to continue to invest in its cloud infrastructure, applications, and services, pursue strategic acquisitions, and return value to shareholders.
Most recent earnings report
Financial statements 
All public filings
Comparative Analysis
Benchmarks (as of 2024-09-04)
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK)
  • Performance Comparison: ORCL has generally outperformed XLK over the past three years, with the exception of the 1-year period. This suggests that ORCL may be a more attractive investment for investors seeking long-term growth. However, it is important to note that ORCL's performance has been more volatile than XLK's, indicating that ORCL may be more susceptible to short-term market fluctuations.
  • Risk and Return Analysis: ORCL has provided higher annualized returns than XLK over the past three years. However, ORCL has also been more volatile than XLK, as evidenced by its higher annualized volatility and maximum drawdown. This suggests that ORCL may be a riskier investment than XLK.
  • Risk-Adjusted Performance: XLK has consistently offered a better risk-adjusted return than ORCL, as indicated by its higher Sharpe Ratio. This suggests that XLK may be a more attractive investment for investors seeking to maximize returns while minimizing risk. ORCL's lower beta suggests that it is less sensitive to market movements than XLK, indicating that ORCL may be a less risky investment for investors seeking to reduce their exposure to market volatility.
  • Overall Assessment: ORCL has demonstrated strong historical performance, outperforming XLK over the past three years. However, ORCL's higher volatility and lower Sharpe Ratio suggest that it may be a riskier investment than XLK. Investors seeking long-term growth may find ORCL attractive, while investors seeking to maximize returns while minimizing risk may prefer XLK. ORCL's lower beta suggests that it is less sensitive to market movements than XLK, making it a potentially less risky investment for investors seeking to reduce their exposure to market volatility.
Peers Price History(as of 2024-09-04)
  • Performance Comparison: ORCL has shown a mixed performance compared to its peers, NOW and PANW. While it has outperformed both companies over the long term (2 and 3 years), it has underperformed in the shorter term (1 year). This suggests that ORCL's performance may be more cyclical, potentially influenced by factors like economic conditions or industry trends.
  • Risk and Return Analysis: ORCL has generally provided higher annualized returns than NOW and PANW over the past three years. However, it has also been more volatile, as evidenced by its higher annualized volatility and larger maximum drawdown. This suggests that while ORCL has the potential for higher returns, it also carries a higher risk profile.
  • Risk-Adjusted Performance: ORCL's Sharpe Ratio has generally been higher than NOW and PANW, indicating better risk-adjusted returns. This suggests that ORCL has been able to generate higher returns while taking on less risk. However, it's important to note that the Sharpe Ratio has been volatile for all three companies, indicating inconsistency in risk-adjusted returns.
  • Overall Assessment: ORCL appears to be a more mature company with a lower risk profile compared to its peers, NOW and PANW. While it has shown a mixed performance in recent years, its long-term performance has been strong, and it has consistently generated higher risk-adjusted returns. However, its higher volatility and larger maximum drawdown suggest that investors should be aware of the potential for significant price fluctuations.
Peers Fundamentals(as of 2024-05-31)
  1. Market Position and Size:
    • ORCL is the largest company in the peer group, with a market cap more than twice the size of its closest competitor, NOW. This suggests that ORCL has a dominant market position within the technology services sector.
    • ORCL's market cap is significantly larger than its peers, and this is reflected in its financial performance. ORCL's revenue, EBITDA, and net income are all significantly higher than NOW and PANW. This suggests that ORCL's size and market position give it a significant advantage in terms of revenue generation and profitability.
  2. Profitability and Efficiency:
    • ORCL's profitability metrics are generally higher than its peers and industry averages. ORCL's Gross Profit Margin, EBITDA Margin, and Net Profit Margin are all significantly higher than NOW, PANW, and the industry average. This indicates that ORCL is more efficient in converting revenue into profit.
    • ORCL's profitability is strong, even considering its size. ORCL's revenue is significantly higher than its peers, but its profitability metrics are also significantly higher. This suggests that ORCL is able to leverage its size to generate higher profits.
    • ORCL is overperforming in profitability metrics compared to both peers and industry standards. This suggests that ORCL has a strong competitive advantage in terms of profitability.
  3. Financial Health and Stability:
    • ORCL's liquidity position is relatively weak compared to its peers and the industry average. ORCL's current and quick ratios are significantly lower than the industry average, suggesting that it may have difficulty meeting its short-term obligations.
    • ORCL's debt position is significantly higher than its peers and the industry average. ORCL's high debt levels could pose a risk to its financial stability, particularly if interest rates rise or its earnings decline.
    • ORCL's overall financial health is strong, but it faces some challenges. ORCL has a dominant market position, strong profitability, and strong cash flow generation. However, its growth rates are lower than its peers, and its high debt levels could pose a risk to its financial stability.
  4. Valuation and Market Perception:
    • ORCL's valuation is relatively low compared to its peers and the industry average. ORCL's valuation metrics suggest that the market is valuing ORCL at a discount to its peers and the industry average. This could be due to concerns about ORCL's growth prospects, profitability, or financial stability.
  5. Cash Flow and Capital Management:
    • ORCL's cash flow generation strength is strong relative to its size, peers, and industry norms. ORCL's cash flow metrics are significantly higher than its peers, even though it is a much larger company. This suggests that ORCL is able to effectively manage its operations to generate strong cash flows.
  6. Growth and Future Prospects:
    • ORCL's growth rates are generally lower than the peer group average. ORCL's sales, EBITDA, net income, and basic earnings per share have all grown at a slower pace than the peer group average over the past year and five years. This suggests that ORCL is facing challenges in maintaining its growth momentum.
    • ORCL's growth rates have been relatively stable over the past five years. ORCL's year-over-year growth rates have not shown significant fluctuations, with the exception of net income and basic earnings per share, which have experienced significant volatility. This suggests that ORCL's growth is relatively consistent, but it is also facing challenges in maintaining its profitability.
    • ORCL's 3-year CAGR figures are generally lower than its 5-year CAGR figures. This suggests that ORCL's growth has been decelerating over the past few years. This could be due to a number of factors, such as increased competition, economic headwinds, or a shift in its business strategy.
    • ORCL's growth is concentrated in specific areas. ORCL's free cash flow and free cash flow margin have grown at a faster pace than its other metrics. This suggests that ORCL is able to generate strong cash flows, even though its overall growth is relatively slow.
    • ORCL's growth profile is mixed. ORCL is able to generate strong cash flows, but its overall growth is relatively slow. This suggests that ORCL is facing challenges in maintaining its growth momentum, but it is still able to generate strong cash flows.
  7. Potential for Investment:
    • ORCL is a large, established company with a strong track record of profitability and cash flow generation. However, its growth rates are lower than its peers, and its high debt levels could pose a risk to its financial stability. Investors should consider these factors when evaluating ORCL's investment attractiveness.
  8. Key Risks and Considerations:
    • ORCL's high debt levels could pose a risk to its financial stability, particularly if interest rates rise or its earnings decline.
    • ORCL's slower growth rates compared to its peers could indicate challenges in maintaining its competitive position and market share.
    • The market's perception of ORCL's valuation at a discount to its peers could reflect concerns about its future growth prospects, profitability, or financial stability.
  9. Overall Assessment:
    • ORCL is a financially strong company with a dominant market position and a strong track record of profitability and cash flow generation. However, its growth rates are lower than its peers, and its high debt levels could pose a risk to its financial stability. Investors should carefully consider these factors when evaluating ORCL's investment potential.