Thematic evaluation
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Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)

September 06, 2024

Compared to: CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) | Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) | Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK)

Our reasoning

Palo Alto Networks' current valuation appears fair, balancing its strong market position and growth prospects against competitive and legal risks. The company's financial metrics, including revenue growth and profitability, support the current valuation, while potential catalysts and risks are adequately reflected in the stock price. The valuation multiples align with peers and seem reasonable given the company's growth trajectory and market leadership in the cybersecurity industry.

Key takeaways
  • Palo Alto Networks is a leading cybersecurity provider with a strong financial position and a commitment to shareholder value.
  • The company's shift towards a subscription-based business model is driving recurring revenue growth and improving profitability.
  • The company's investments in R&D and growth initiatives are likely to drive future revenue growth and market share gains.
  • The company's strong profitability and margin expansion indicate a healthy financial position and a commitment to shareholder value.
  • The company's conservative capital structure provides it with significant financial flexibility for future investments and acquisitions.
  • The company faces intense competition in the cybersecurity industry, which could impact its market share and profitability.
  • The company's acquisitions, while strategic, carry integration challenges and unexpected liabilities.
  • The company's exposure to credit and liquidity risks of customers could impact its financial performance.
  • The company's significant legal matters, including an adverse patent infringement verdict, pose financial and reputational risks.
Fairly valued

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Evaluation summary
  1. Company Overview:

    • Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) is a leading provider of cybersecurity solutions, offering a comprehensive suite of products and services for network security, cloud security, security operations, and threat intelligence. The company's business model is primarily driven by subscription and support offerings, which now account for over 80% of total revenue. This recurring revenue model provides a more stable and predictable revenue stream.
    • PANW's products and services include ML-Powered Next-Generation Firewalls, cloud-delivered SASE, Prisma Cloud for securing multi-/hybrid-cloud environments, Cortex security operations platform, and Unit 42 threat intelligence and advisory services. These offerings cater to a diverse customer base across various industries, including education, energy, financial services, government, healthcare, and telecommunications.
    • The company operates in a highly competitive and rapidly evolving cybersecurity industry, facing competition from large technology companies, independent security vendors, startups, and public cloud providers. The increasing adoption of cloud computing, remote work, and emerging technologies like AI/ML is driving demand for comprehensive, integrated security solutions.
    • For comparative analysis, we are using the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) as a benchmark and Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) and CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) as industry peers.
  2. Financial Performance:

    • PANW has demonstrated strong revenue growth in recent years, driven by the increasing demand for its cybersecurity solutions. The company's revenue has grown at a CAGR of 19.3% over the past three years.
    • The company's profitability has also improved significantly, with operating margins expanding by 320 basis points in the most recent quarter. This improvement is attributed to the favorable product mix and the growing subscription/support business.
    • PANW's return on average assets (ROA), return on average total equity (ROE), and return on average invested capital (ROIC) are significantly higher than the industry average, indicating a strong ability to generate profits from its operations.
    • Compared to its peers, PANW has shown mixed performance. While it has outperformed ZS and CRWD in the short term, it has underperformed in the longer term. This suggests that PANW might be more susceptible to market fluctuations and may not be as consistent in its growth trajectory as its peers.
  3. Operational Efficiency:

    • PANW's balance sheet analysis reveals a strong liquidity position, with a current ratio slightly below the industry average. However, the decreasing trend in cash and short-term investments warrants monitoring.
    • The company's working capital management has been relatively efficient, with a stable trend in working capital over the past few quarters.
    • PANW's cash flow generation capacity is strong, with a significant net operating cash flow. However, the net operating cash flow has been decreasing in recent quarters, potentially due to changes in working capital management.
    • The company's asset quality is generally good, with a moderate level of goodwill and intangible assets.
    • PANW's free cash flow margin has been declining, suggesting a potential decrease in cash flow generation efficiency.
    • The company's capital expenditure has been relatively stable, with a moderate level of investment in fixed assets.
    • PANW does not currently pay dividends or repurchase shares.
    • Compared to its peers, PANW has generally exhibited lower annualized volatility, indicating a potentially less risky investment. However, it's important to note that PANW's volatility has been higher than CRWD's in some periods, suggesting that it can still be subject to significant market fluctuations.
  4. Growth Opportunities:

    • PANW has identified several growth opportunities, including market expansion into new industries and geographies, strategic acquisitions, and continued investment in R&D.
    • The company has a strong track record of successful acquisitions, which have helped to expand its product portfolio and capabilities.
    • PANW's R&D pipeline is robust, with a focus on developing innovative security solutions that address emerging threats.
    • The company is expanding its geographic reach, with a particular focus on the Asia Pacific region.
    • PANW's current strategic focus areas include platformization, Prisma Cloud, and Cortex. The company is seeing strong traction for its platformization strategy, with increased senior-level customer engagement and a sequential increase in average ARR per platformized customer.
    • The company's management team has a strong track record of executing strategic plans, with a history of delivering on its growth targets.
  5. Risks and Threats:

    • PANW faces several risks and threats, including intense competition, supply chain challenges, regulatory compliance risks, cybersecurity incidents, intellectual property infringement claims, and legal matters.
    • The company's reliance on channel partners for a substantial portion of revenue and distribution poses a risk to its business model.
    • The company's exposure to credit and liquidity risks of customers could impact its financial performance.
    • The company's significant legal matters, including an adverse patent infringement verdict, pose financial and reputational risks.
    • The company's acquisitions, while strategic, carry integration challenges and unexpected liabilities.
  6. Valuation Analysis:

    • PANW's valuation metrics, such as P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales, are generally in line with its peers.
    • The company's valuation is supported by its strong financial performance, growth prospects, and market leadership position.
    • Potential catalysts for PANW's valuation include continued growth in subscription revenue, successful execution of its platformization strategy, and expansion into new markets.
  7. Price Performance:

    • PANW's price performance has been mixed in recent years. While it has outperformed XLK in the short term, it has underperformed in the longer term.
    • PANW's price volatility has been significantly higher than XLK's, indicating a riskier investment.
    • Compared to its peers, PANW has shown a mixed performance history, with periods of outperformance followed by underperformance. While it has generally exhibited lower volatility than its peers, it has also experienced the largest maximum drawdown, indicating a higher risk profile.
  8. Future Outlook:

    • PANW's management team has provided positive guidance for fiscal year 2025, with expectations for continued strong growth in NGS ARR and RPO.
    • Analyst estimates for PANW's future performance are generally positive, with a consensus view of continued growth and profitability.
  9. Summary:

    • PANW is a leading cybersecurity provider with a strong financial position and a commitment to shareholder value. The company's shift towards a subscription-based business model is driving recurring revenue growth and improving profitability.
    • The company's investments in R&D and growth initiatives are likely to drive future revenue growth and market share gains.
    • PANW faces intense competition in the cybersecurity industry, which could impact its market share and profitability. The company's acquisitions, while strategic, carry integration challenges and unexpected liabilities.
    • The company's exposure to credit and liquidity risks of customers could impact its financial performance. The company's significant legal matters, including an adverse patent infringement verdict, pose financial and reputational risks.
    • Overall, PANW appears to be navigating a dynamic and competitive cybersecurity market, but must continue innovating and executing effectively to maintain its leadership position.
Peer fundamentals 
Fundamentals
Insights
  • Palo Alto Networks is a leading cybersecurity provider with a strong financial position and a commitment to shareholder value.
  • The company's shift towards a subscription-based business model is driving recurring revenue growth and improving profitability.
  • The company's investments in R&D and growth initiatives are likely to drive future revenue growth and market share gains.
  • The company's strong profitability and margin expansion indicate a healthy financial position and a commitment to shareholder value.
  • The company's conservative capital structure provides it with significant financial flexibility for future investments and acquisitions.
  • The company faces intense competition in the cybersecurity industry, which could impact its market share and profitability.
  • The company's acquisitions, while strategic, carry integration challenges and unexpected liabilities.
  • The company's exposure to credit and liquidity risks of customers could impact its financial performance.
  • The company's significant legal matters, including an adverse patent infringement verdict, pose financial and reputational risks.
Analysis
  • Revenue - The company's revenue growth is driven by strong demand for its subscription and support offerings, which are now accounting for over 80% of total revenue. - This shift towards a more recurring revenue model is generally considered more stable and predictable. - The company's revenue growth is outpacing the industry average, indicating a strong market position and competitive advantage.
    • Profitability
      • The company's profitability is strong, with significant improvements in operating margins.
      • This is driven by the favorable product mix and the growing subscription/support business.
      • The company's profitability ratios are significantly higher than the industry average, indicating a strong ability to generate profits from its operations.
    • Liquidity
      • The company's current ratio is slightly below the industry average, suggesting a moderate level of liquidity.
      • The decreasing trend in cash and short-term investments warrants monitoring.
      • The company's strong cash flow generation capacity suggests a healthy liquidity position.
    • Solvency
      • The company's total debt to total equity ratio is significantly lower than the industry average, indicating a conservative capital structure and strong financial stability.
      • The company's debt to EBITDA ratio is significantly lower than the industry average, indicating a strong ability to service its debt.
      • The company's conservative capital structure provides it with significant financial flexibility for future investments and acquisitions.
    • Operational Efficiency
      • The company's return on average assets is significantly higher than the industry average, suggesting efficient asset utilization and strong profitability.
      • The company's return on average total equity is significantly higher than the industry average, indicating a strong ability to generate profits from its equity investments.
      • The company's return on average total capital is significantly higher than the industry average, indicating a strong ability to generate profits from its capital investments.
      • The company's return on average invested capital is significantly higher than the industry average, indicating a strong ability to generate profits from its invested capital.
    • Cash Flow Analysis
      • The company's net operating cash flow is decreasing, potentially due to changes in working capital management.
      • The company's net investing cash flow is decreasing, likely driven by increased investments in acquisitions and potentially capital expenditures.
      • The company's net financing cash flow is increasing, suggesting a shift towards more debt financing or potentially stock repurchases.
      • The company's free cash flow margin has been declining, suggesting a potential decrease in cash flow generation efficiency.
    • Risk Factors
      • The company's reliance on channel partners for a substantial portion of revenue and distribution poses a risk to its business model.
      • The company faces intense competition in the cybersecurity industry, which could impact its market share and profitability.
      • The company's acquisitions, while strategic, carry integration challenges and unexpected liabilities.
      • The company's exposure to credit and liquidity risks of customers could impact its financial performance.
      • The company's significant legal matters, including an adverse patent infringement verdict, pose financial and reputational risks.
    • Future Outlook
      • The company's continued investment in growth initiatives and its focus on platformization are likely to drive further increases in revenue and expenses.
      • The company's strong profitability and margin expansion suggest a positive outlook for future earnings.
      • The company's strong cash flow generation capacity and conservative capital structure provide it with financial flexibility for future investments and acquisitions.
      • The company's focus on profitable growth and its commitment to investing in its platformization strategy are likely to drive future growth and market share gains.
Most recent earnings report
Financial statements 
All public filings
Comparative Analysis
Benchmarks (as of 2024-09-04)
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK)
  • Performance Comparison:
    • PANW has outperformed XLK in the short term, with positive returns over the past year and six months. However, over longer periods, PANW has underperformed XLK, with negative returns over the past two and three years. This suggests that PANW's performance is more volatile than XLK's.
  • Risk and Return Analysis:
    • PANW has provided higher returns than XLK in the short term, but lower returns in the long term. This suggests that PANW is a riskier investment than XLK.
    • PANW has been significantly more volatile than XLK, as evidenced by its higher annualized volatility. This suggests that PANW is a riskier investment than XLK.
    • PANW has experienced significantly larger drawdowns than XLK, with a maximum drawdown of 78.67% in Q1 of 2023. This indicates that PANW is more susceptible to market downturns than XLK.
  • Risk-Adjusted Performance:
    • PANW's Sharpe Ratio has been more volatile than XLK's, suggesting that its risk-adjusted returns have been more inconsistent.
    • PANW's beta is consistently higher than XLK's, indicating that it is more sensitive to market movements and therefore a riskier investment.
  • Overall Assessment:
    • PANW has shown strong short-term performance but has underperformed XLK in the long term. Its high volatility and large drawdowns suggest that it is a riskier investment than XLK. While its recent trends indicate a potential decrease in risk, it remains more volatile and susceptible to market downturns than XLK. Investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and investment horizon before investing in PANW.
Peers Price History(as of 2024-09-04)
  • Performance Comparison:
    • PANW has shown a mixed performance history compared to its peers. While it has outperformed ZS and CRWD in the short term (YTD, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months), it has underperformed in the longer term (2 years, 3 years). This suggests that PANW might be more susceptible to market fluctuations and may not be as consistent in its growth trajectory as its peers.
    • PANW's performance has been inconsistent relative to its peers, with periods of outperformance followed by underperformance. This inconsistency could be attributed to factors like market conditions, competitive pressures, or changes in the company's strategy.
  • Risk and Return Analysis:
    • PANW has provided lower annualized returns than CRWD in the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year periods. However, it has outperformed ZS in the 3-year period. This suggests that PANW might be a less risky investment than CRWD but may not offer the same growth potential.
    • PANW has generally exhibited lower annualized volatility than ZS and CRWD, indicating a potentially less risky investment. However, it's important to note that PANW's volatility has been higher than CRWD's in some periods, suggesting that it can still be subject to significant market fluctuations.
    • PANW has experienced the largest maximum drawdown among the three companies, indicating a higher risk profile. This suggests that investors in PANW could face larger potential losses during market downturns.
  • Risk-Adjusted Performance:
    • PANW has generally offered a better risk-adjusted return than ZS and CRWD, as evidenced by its higher Sharpe Ratio. This suggests that PANW might be a more efficient investment, providing better returns for the level of risk taken.
    • PANW's beta value suggests that it is more sensitive to market movements than the overall market. However, its beta has been relatively consistent over the past few years, indicating a predictable risk profile.
  • Overall Assessment:
    • PANW has shown a mixed performance history, with periods of outperformance followed by underperformance. While it has generally exhibited lower volatility than its peers, it has also experienced the largest maximum drawdown, indicating a higher risk profile. However, PANW's higher Sharpe Ratio suggests that it might be a more efficient investment, providing better returns for the level of risk taken.
    • Investors should carefully consider PANW's risk profile and its inconsistent performance history before making any investment decisions. While its lower volatility and higher Sharpe Ratio might be attractive, its larger maximum drawdown and inconsistent performance history suggest that it might be a less predictable investment than its peers.
Peers Fundamentals(as of 2024-07-31)
  1. Market Position and Size:
    • PANW is the largest company in the peer group, with a market cap significantly larger than its peers. This size is reflected in its revenue generation capabilities and profitability, but not necessarily in its EBITDA.
  2. Profitability and Efficiency:
    • PANW's profitability metrics are strong, exceeding both peer and industry averages. This suggests that PANW is a profitable company with a strong competitive position in the cybersecurity market.
    • PANW's efficiency in generating returns is strong, exceeding both peer and industry averages. This suggests that PANW is able to effectively utilize its assets, equity, and capital to generate profits.
  3. Financial Health and Stability:
    • PANW's liquidity position is relatively weaker than its peers and the industry average, but its debt position is lower compared to its peers and the industry average. This suggests that PANW has a lower debt burden but may face challenges in meeting short-term obligations.
  4. Valuation and Market Perception:
    • PANW's valuation is higher than its peers and the industry average based on its sales and book value, but lower than CRWD based on its earnings. This suggests that the market perceives PANW as a valuable company with strong growth potential.
  5. Cash Flow and Capital Management:
    • PANW's cash flow generation is not reported, while ZS and CRWD have positive Free Cash Flow. This suggests that PANW's cash flow generation is not necessarily reflected in its Free Cash Flow.
  6. Growth and Future Prospect:
    • PANW consistently shows lower growth in Sales/Revenue, in millions compared to the peer group average. This suggests that PANW's growth is lagging behind its peers in terms of revenue generation.
    • PANW shows significant year-to-year fluctuations in several key metrics, suggesting that PANW's growth is not consistent across all metrics and may be subject to volatility.
    • PANW's growth is concentrated in specific areas, such as Net Income, Basic Earnings per Share, and Return on Average Total Equity, while lagging in Sales/Revenue, in millions and Total Assets. This suggests that PANW's growth is not balanced across all metrics and may be driven by factors other than revenue growth.
    • PANW's growth profile is mixed, with strong growth in profitability metrics but weaker growth in revenue and assets. This suggests that PANW's growth is not sustainable in the long term and may be driven by factors other than revenue growth.
  7. Potential for Investment:
    • PANW is a profitable and efficient company with a strong competitive position in the cybersecurity market. However, its lagging revenue growth and fluctuating growth across different metrics raise concerns about its ability to maintain its market share and competitive advantage in the long term. Investors should carefully consider these factors before making an investment decision.
  8. Key Risks and Considerations:
    • PANW's lagging revenue growth and fluctuating growth across different metrics raise concerns about its ability to maintain its market share and competitive advantage in the long term.
    • PANW's weaker liquidity position may pose challenges in meeting short-term obligations.
  9. Overall Assessment:
    • PANW is a profitable and efficient company with a strong competitive position in the cybersecurity market. However, its lagging revenue growth and fluctuating growth across different metrics raise concerns about its ability to maintain its market share and competitive advantage in the long term. Investors should carefully consider these factors before making an investment decision.