Thematic evaluation
Back to company overview

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)

September 06, 2024

Compared to: QUALCOMM, Inc. (QCOM) | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) | Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK)

Our reasoning

Texas Instruments appears moderately undervalued based on its current valuation multiples being below industry averages, strong competitive position, and long-term growth prospects in industrial and automotive markets. While near-term challenges exist, the company's investments in capacity expansion and focus on high-growth markets position it well for future growth, which is not fully reflected in the current stock price.

Key takeaways
  • Texas Instruments is a leading semiconductor company with a strong market position and a history of profitability, but is facing near-term challenges due to softening customer demand and higher manufacturing costs.
  • The company's investments in capacity expansion are expected to provide long-term benefits in terms of lower manufacturing costs and greater supply chain control, supporting its long-term growth prospects in industrial and automotive markets.
  • TI maintains a strong liquidity position and disciplined capital allocation, providing financial flexibility to navigate industry cycles and invest for long-term growth.
  • The company's valuation metrics suggest that it may be undervalued, and its price performance has been impacted by the recent revenue decline and concerns about the near-term outlook. However, the company's strong fundamentals and long-term growth prospects suggest that the stock may be undervalued.
  • TI faces a range of operational, financial, legal, and regulatory risks that could impact its business performance and outlook, requiring careful management and mitigation.
  • Overall, Texas Instruments appears to be navigating the current market conditions well, leveraging its competitive advantages to gain market share and position itself for long-term growth in the industrial and automotive semiconductor markets.
Undervalued

Ask a question about Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)
Evaluation summary
  1. Company Overview:

    • Texas Instruments Incorporated (TI) is a leading global semiconductor company specializing in the design and manufacture of analog and embedded processing semiconductors. These semiconductors are essential components in a wide range of electronic devices, including industrial equipment, automotive systems, personal electronics, communication equipment, and enterprise systems.
    • TI's revenue is primarily generated from the sale of analog semiconductors, which account for the largest portion of its business. The company's embedded processing segment focuses on providing the "digital brains" for electronic devices, handling specific tasks and optimized for performance, power, and cost.
    • TI's target market is diverse, encompassing a wide range of industries and applications. The company's products are used by electronics designers and manufacturers worldwide, making it a key player in the global semiconductor industry.
    • For comparative analysis, we will be using the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) as a benchmark and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) and QUALCOMM, Inc. (QCOM) as industry peers.
  2. Financial Performance:

    • TI's revenue has been declining in recent quarters, reflecting softening customer demand across multiple end markets. This decline is particularly pronounced in the Analog segment, which is TI's largest segment.
    • Despite the revenue decline, TI's profitability has remained relatively strong, with gross profit margins exceeding 57% in recent quarters. However, profitability has been declining due to higher manufacturing costs associated with capacity expansions.
    • TI's return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and return on invested capital (ROIC) have been declining in recent quarters, reflecting the impact of lower revenue and higher costs. However, these ratios remain significantly higher than the industry average, indicating a strong competitive advantage.
    • Compared to its peers, AMD and QCOM, TI has exhibited a mixed performance history. While it has outperformed in the short term, it has underperformed in the longer term, suggesting that TI's performance is more volatile and less consistent than its peers.
  3. Operational Efficiency:

    • TI's balance sheet reflects a strong liquidity position, with a high current ratio and quick ratio, indicating its ability to meet short-term obligations. The company's liquidity position is slightly better than the industry average.
    • TI's working capital management has been impacted by the recent revenue decline, leading to a decrease in working capital in recent quarters. However, the company's overall working capital efficiency remains strong.
    • TI's operating cash flow has been declining, primarily due to lower net income and higher manufacturing costs associated with capacity expansions. However, the company's free cash flow generation remains strong, supporting its ability to fund its strategic initiatives, repay debt, and maintain dividend growth.
    • TI's capital expenditures are aligned with its strategic initiatives to expand its manufacturing capacity. The company's investments in capacity expansion are expected to provide long-term benefits in terms of lower manufacturing costs and greater supply chain control.
    • TI's dividend and share repurchase sustainability is supported by its strong free cash flow generation. The company has a history of consistent dividend payments and share repurchases.
    • Compared to its peers, TI has a lower debt-to-equity ratio and leverage ratio, indicating a more conservative financial structure. This suggests that TI is less exposed to financial risk compared to its peers.
  4. Growth Opportunities:

    • TI's long-term growth prospects remain positive, driven by secular growth opportunities in industrial and automotive markets. The company is investing significantly to expand its 300mm wafer fabrication capacity, which should provide long-term benefits in terms of lower manufacturing costs and greater supply chain control.
    • TI's strategic focus areas include expanding its presence in high-growth markets, such as industrial automation, automotive, and data centers. The company is also investing in new technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and the Internet of Things (IoT).
    • TI's capital allocation strategy is focused on maximizing long-term free cash flow per share growth through a strong business model, disciplined capital allocation, and operational efficiency. The company's investments in capacity expansion are aligned with this strategy.
    • TI's management has a history of successful execution of strategic plans, as evidenced by the company's consistent financial performance and market leadership.
  5. Risks and Threats:

    • TI faces a range of operational, financial, legal, and regulatory risks that could impact its business performance and outlook. These risks include global economic, political, and social conditions, competition, cybersecurity threats, and availability of key materials.
    • The company's recent revenue declines, particularly in the Analog segment, reflect softening customer demand across multiple end markets, posing near-term challenges.
    • TI's investments in capacity expansion could lead to higher manufacturing costs and reduced factory loadings in the near term.
    • The semiconductor industry is highly competitive, with TI facing significant global competition from both large and small companies. The company's ability to compete effectively and respond to rapid technological changes and pricing pressures is a key risk factor.
  6. Valuation Analysis:

    • TI's valuation metrics, such as P/E ratio and EV/EBITDA, are currently below the industry average, suggesting that the company is undervalued. This undervaluation may be due to the recent revenue decline and concerns about the near-term outlook.
    • Compared to its peers, TI's valuation metrics are more attractive, suggesting that the company is relatively undervalued compared to its peers.
    • Potential catalysts for future growth include the continued expansion of the industrial and automotive markets, the adoption of new technologies, and the company's investments in capacity expansion.
  7. Price Performance:

    • TI's stock price has outperformed the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) in the short term, with positive returns over the past year and six months. However, over longer periods, TI has underperformed XLK, particularly in the past two and three years. This suggests that TI may be more susceptible to market downturns.
    • Compared to its peers, AMD and QCOM, TI has exhibited a mixed performance history. While it has outperformed in the short term, it has underperformed in the longer term, suggesting that TI's performance is more volatile and less consistent than its peers.
    • TI's price performance has been impacted by the recent revenue decline and concerns about the near-term outlook. However, the company's strong fundamentals and long-term growth prospects suggest that the stock may be undervalued.
  8. Future Outlook:

    • TI's management has provided guidance for Q3 2024, expecting revenue in the range of $3.94 billion to $4.26 billion and earnings per share of $1.24 to $1.48. The company continues to expect an effective tax rate of about 13%.
    • Analyst estimates for TI's future performance are generally positive, with consensus expectations for continued growth in the long term.
    • The company's long-term growth prospects remain positive, driven by secular growth opportunities in industrial and automotive markets. The company's investments in capacity expansion are expected to provide long-term benefits in terms of lower manufacturing costs and greater supply chain control.
  9. Summary:

    • TI is a leading semiconductor company with a strong market position and a history of profitability. The company is facing near-term challenges due to softening customer demand and higher manufacturing costs. However, TI's investments in capacity expansion are expected to provide long-term benefits in terms of lower manufacturing costs and greater supply chain control.
    • TI maintains a strong liquidity position and disciplined capital allocation, which should provide it with financial flexibility to navigate industry cycles and invest for long-term growth. The company's long-term growth prospects remain positive, driven by secular growth opportunities in industrial and automotive markets.
    • TI faces a range of operational, financial, legal, and regulatory risks that could impact its business performance and outlook. The company's financial health is strong, but it is facing some near-term challenges.
    • TI's future outlook is positive, driven by its strong market position, strategic investments, and disciplined capital allocation. The company's valuation metrics suggest that it may be undervalued, and its price performance has been impacted by the recent revenue decline and concerns about the near-term outlook. However, the company's strong fundamentals and long-term growth prospects suggest that the stock may be undervalued.
Peer fundamentals 
Fundamentals
Insights
  • Texas Instruments is a leading semiconductor company with a strong market position and a history of profitability.
  • The company is facing near-term challenges due to softening customer demand and higher manufacturing costs.
  • The company's investments in capacity expansion are expected to provide long-term benefits in terms of lower manufacturing costs and greater supply chain control.
  • The company maintains a strong liquidity position and disciplined capital allocation, which should provide it with financial flexibility to navigate industry cycles and invest for long-term growth.
  • The company's long-term growth prospects remain positive, driven by secular growth opportunities in industrial and automotive markets.
  • The company faces a range of operational, financial, legal, and regulatory risks that could impact its business performance and outlook.
  • The company's financial health is strong, but it is facing some near-term challenges.
  • The company's future outlook is positive, driven by its strong market position, strategic investments, and disciplined capital allocation.
Analysis
  • Revenue - Revenue has been declining in recent quarters, reflecting softening customer demand across multiple end markets. - This decline is particularly pronounced in the Analog segment, which is TI's largest segment. - The company's revenue growth has been decelerating over the past 5 years, indicating a potential shift in industry dynamics. - The company's revenue is significantly higher than the industry average, suggesting a strong market position.
    • Profitability
      • Profitability has been declining in recent quarters, driven by lower revenue and higher manufacturing costs.
      • The company's gross profit margin has been declining, reflecting the impact of higher manufacturing costs.
      • The company's overall profitability, as measured by return on assets, return on equity, and return on invested capital, has been declining.
      • Despite the decline in profitability, the company's profitability ratios remain significantly higher than the industry average, indicating a strong competitive advantage.
    • Liquidity
      • The company maintains a strong liquidity position, with a high current ratio and quick ratio, indicating its ability to meet short-term obligations.
      • The company's liquidity position is slightly better than the industry average.
    • Solvency
      • The company's debt levels have been increasing, reflecting its strategic investments in capacity expansion.
      • The company's debt-to-equity ratio remains relatively low, suggesting a healthy financial structure.
      • The company's debt-to-EBITDA ratio is significantly lower than the industry average, indicating a strong ability to service its debt.
    • Operational Efficiency
      • The company's investments in capacity expansion are reflected in the increasing fixed assets, which could lead to improved operational efficiency in the future.
      • The company's enterprise value-to-EBITDA and enterprise value-to-sales ratios are significantly lower than the industry average, indicating a more efficient use of capital.
    • Cash Flow Analysis
      • The company's operating cash flow has been declining, primarily due to lower net income and higher manufacturing costs associated with capacity expansions.
      • The company's free cash flow generation remains strong, supporting its ability to fund its strategic initiatives, repay debt, and maintain dividend growth.
      • The company's capital expenditures are aligned with its strategic initiatives to expand its manufacturing capacity.
    • Risk Factors
      • The company faces a range of operational, financial, legal, and regulatory risks that could impact its business performance and outlook.
      • These risks include global economic, political, and social conditions, competition, cybersecurity threats, and availability of key materials.
      • The company's recent revenue declines, particularly in the Analog segment, reflect softening customer demand across multiple end markets, posing near-term challenges.
      • The company's investments in capacity expansion could lead to higher manufacturing costs and reduced factory loadings in the near term.
    • Future Outlook
      • The company's long-term growth prospects remain positive, driven by secular growth opportunities in industrial and automotive markets.
      • The company's investments in capacity expansion are expected to provide long-term benefits in terms of lower manufacturing costs and greater supply chain control.
      • The company's strong liquidity position and disciplined capital allocation should provide it with financial flexibility to navigate industry cycles and invest for long-term growth.
Most recent earnings report
Financial statements 
All public filings
Comparative Analysis
Benchmarks (as of 2024-09-04)
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK)
  • Performance Comparison:
    • TXN has outperformed XLK in the short term, with positive returns over the past year and six months. However, over longer periods, TXN has underperformed XLK, particularly in the past two and three years. This suggests that TXN may be more susceptible to market downturns.
  • Risk and Return Analysis:
    • TXN has provided higher returns than XLK in the short term, but lower returns over longer periods. This suggests that TXN may be a more volatile investment.
    • TXN has generally been more volatile than XLK, with higher annualized volatility. This is consistent with its higher beta value, indicating that TXN is more sensitive to market movements.
    • TXN's maximum drawdown of 25.52% is smaller than XLK's maximum drawdown of 33.56%. However, this does not necessarily mean that TXN is less risky, as it has experienced similar frequency of drawdowns.
  • Risk-Adjusted Performance:
    • XLK has consistently offered a better risk-adjusted return than TXN, as indicated by its higher Sharpe ratio. This suggests that XLK has been more efficient at generating returns relative to its risk.
    • TXN's beta value of greater than 1 indicates that it is more sensitive to market movements than the overall market. This suggests that TXN is a higher-risk investment than the broader market.
  • Overall Assessment:
    • TXN has shown strong short-term performance but has underperformed XLK over longer periods. Its higher volatility and beta value suggest a higher risk profile. While its maximum drawdown has been smaller than XLK's, its similar frequency of drawdowns indicates that it may not be significantly less risky. XLK's consistently higher Sharpe ratio suggests that it has been more efficient at generating returns relative to its risk. Investors seeking a more stable and risk-adjusted return may prefer XLK, while those willing to accept higher volatility for the potential of higher returns may consider TXN.
Peers Price History(as of 2024-09-04)
  • Performance Comparison:
    • TXN has exhibited a mixed performance history compared to its peers. While it has outperformed AMD and QCOM in the short term (YTD, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Months, and 6 Months), it has underperformed in the longer term (1 Year, 2 Years, and 3 Years). This suggests that TXN's performance is more volatile and less consistent than its peers.
  • Risk and Return Analysis:
    • TXN has generally provided lower annualized returns compared to AMD and QCOM, particularly in the longer term. This suggests that TXN may be a less attractive investment for investors seeking high returns.
    • TXN has consistently exhibited lower annualized volatility compared to AMD and QCOM, indicating a lower risk profile. This suggests that TXN may be a more suitable investment for investors seeking stability and lower risk.
    • TXN has experienced the smallest maximum drawdown compared to its peers, indicating a lower risk profile. This suggests that TXN is more resilient to market downturns and is less likely to experience significant price declines.
  • Risk-Adjusted Performance:
    • TXN has generally had a lower Sharpe ratio compared to AMD and QCOM, indicating that it has not been as efficient in generating risk-adjusted returns. This suggests that TXN may not be as attractive an investment for investors seeking to maximize risk-adjusted returns.
    • TXN's lower beta suggests that it is less sensitive to market movements compared to AMD and QCOM. This indicates that TXN's price is less likely to fluctuate as much as the market, making it a potentially more stable investment.
  • Overall Assessment:
    • TXN is a relatively stable and less volatile semiconductor company compared to its peers, AMD and QCOM. While it has underperformed in the longer term, its lower risk profile and smaller drawdowns make it a potentially attractive investment for investors seeking stability and lower risk. However, investors seeking high returns may find TXN less appealing due to its lower annualized returns and Sharpe ratio.
    • The recent trends suggest that TXN's volatility and risk profile have been improving, with its Sharpe ratio increasing and its drawdowns becoming smaller and shorter in duration. This suggests that TXN may be becoming a more competitive investment option in the semiconductor sector.
Peers Fundamentals(as of 2024-06-30)
  1. Market Position and Size:
    • TXN is the second largest company in the peer group based on market capitalization, but the smallest based on revenue.
    • TXN's market cap is roughly 1.01 times larger than QCOM's market cap, but 0.82 times smaller than AMD's market cap.
    • TXN's revenue of 3822.0 is significantly smaller than AMD's revenue of 5835.0 and QCOM's revenue of 9393.0.
    • TXN's EBITDA of 1629.0 is larger than AMD's EBITDA of 1054.0, but smaller than QCOM's EBITDA of 2715.0.
    • TXN's net income of 1121.0 is larger than AMD's net income of 265.0, but smaller than QCOM's net income of 2108.0.
  2. Profitability and Efficiency:
    • TXN is significantly overperforming in profitability metrics compared to both peers and industry standards.
    • TXN's Gross Profit Margin of 57.85% is significantly higher than AMD's Gross Profit Margin of 42.71% and QCOM's Gross Profit Margin of 55.56%, and is also significantly higher than the industry average of -3.09%.
    • TXN's EBITDA Margin of 42.62% is significantly higher than AMD's EBITDA Margin of 18.06% and QCOM's EBITDA Margin of 28.9%, and is also significantly higher than the industry average of -1559.56%.
    • TXN's Net Profit Margin of 29.33% is significantly higher than AMD's Net Profit Margin of 4.54% and QCOM's Net Profit Margin of 22.44%, and is also significantly higher than the industry average of -1594.18%.
    • TXN is highly efficient in generating returns relative to its size and market position, as it consistently outperforms its peers and the industry average in key return on capital metrics.
  3. Financial Health and Stability:
    • TXN has a strong liquidity position, as evidenced by its high current ratio and quick ratio. However, its debt position is relatively high, as indicated by its high total debt to total equity ratio and debt to EBITDA ratio.
    • TXN's overall financial health is relatively strong, as it has a high level of profitability, strong efficiency in generating returns, and a solid liquidity position. However, its high debt levels and decelerating growth rates are concerns.
  4. Valuation and Market Perception:
    • TXN's valuation is relatively attractive compared to its peers and industry standards, as it trades at a lower multiple of sales, EBITDA, and earnings than its peers and the industry average.
    • TXN's valuation is somewhat high relative to its market cap and peer group, as it trades at a higher price-to-book ratio than its peers.
  5. Cash Flow and Capital Management:
    • TXN's cash flow generation strength is relatively strong, as it generates a significant amount of net operating cash flow and free cash flow. However, its capital expenditure is relatively high, which reduces its free cash flow.
    • TXN's cash flow generation strength is somewhat concerning relative to its size, peers, and industry norms. While its net operating cash flow is strong, its high capital expenditure and relatively low free cash flow compared to its peers raise concerns about its ability to sustain its growth and return value to shareholders.
  6. Growth and Future Prospects:
    • TXN's growth rates are generally lower than the peer group average, particularly in sales, EBITDA, and free cash flow.
    • TXN's growth rates have been consistently decreasing over the 5-year period for sales, EBITDA, net income, basic earnings per share, free cash flow, free cash flow margin, and return on average total equity.
    • TXN's most recent year-over-year growth rates are lower than its 5-year CAGRs for sales, EBITDA, net income, basic earnings per share, free cash flow, free cash flow margin, and return on average total equity, indicating a deceleration in growth.
    • TXN's growth is concentrated in specific areas, such as EBIT margin and return on average total equity, where it has consistently outperformed the peer group average.
    • TXN's growth profile is somewhat concerning, as its growth rates have been decelerating and are generally lower than the peer group average. This suggests that TXN may be facing challenges in maintaining its competitive position and growing its business.
  7. Potential for Investment:
    • TXN is a financially sound company with a strong track record of profitability and efficiency. However, its growth rates have been decelerating, and its high debt levels are concerns.
    • TXN's investment attractiveness is somewhat mixed. While it has a strong financial foundation and a leading market position, its decelerating growth rates and high debt levels are concerns.
    • Investors should carefully consider TXN's growth prospects and debt levels before making an investment decision.
  8. Key Risks and Considerations:
    • TXN's high debt levels could pose a risk if the company faces financial difficulties.
    • TXN's decelerating growth rates suggest that it may be facing challenges in maintaining its competitive position and growing its business.
    • TXN's relatively low free cash flow compared to its peers raises concerns about its ability to sustain its growth and return value to shareholders.
  9. Overall Assessment:
    • TXN is a financially sound company with a strong track record of profitability and efficiency. However, its growth rates have been decelerating, and its high debt levels are concerns.
    • TXN's overall financial position is strong, but its growth prospects and debt levels are areas of concern.
    • Investors should carefully consider TXN's growth prospects and debt levels before making an investment decision.